Anthony Weiner and the Carrion Effect
A reader pointed out that Adolfo Carrion’s absence from the mayor's race alters the landscape for Anthony Weiner's candidacy.
In the Democratic primary, a candidate must get 40 percent of the vote to win the nomination and prevent a run-off. Without Carrion in the race, it’s more likely that Bill Thompson, the only black candidate, will earn at least that number.
Assuming that if Carrion had run, Thompson and Carrion would have split support from the black and Latino communities, Weiner then would have been in a run-off with one of them, and earned a second chance at capturing the nomination.
This scenario is not unlike 2005 primary, in which the presence of Virginia Fields, who got 16 percent of the vote (75,826 votes), almost led to a run-off between Weiner and Fernando Ferrer. Many of her votes would probably have gone to Ferrer (who earned 192,262).
Another factor that will affect Weiner’s candidacy is that two candidates likely to siphon votes from him, Marty Markowitz, and Betsy Gotbaum, are both making more noise about their mayoral bids.
The last run-off for a Democratic mayoral primary, between Ferrer and Mark Green, divided the party largely along racial lines.
Also, here's a counter-intuitive take on the situation from Isac Weinberger, who says today’s announcement is good for Anthony Weiner.
“The Latino community will vote for Anthony Weiner because he stepped aside for Fernando Ferrer,” Isac said.
UPDATE: I inadvertently neglected to mention one of the leading prospective mayoral candidates, Christine Quinn. Although her candidacy wouldn’t change the racial equation of Thompson’s appeal to the minority vote, she’d likely be the only woman and openly gay candidate in the race, making her credible contender to bring about a runoff scenario.
- Poll
- Obama (D)
- McCain(R)
- Spread
- RCP Average
- 46.1
- 41.3
- Obama +4.8
- Candidate
- Favorable
- Unfavorable
- Spread
- Obama
- 55.7
- 33.0
- +22.7
- McCain
- 52.7
- 34.1
- +18.6
Weinburger is right to the extent that the latino community "owes it" to weiner to vote for him. that said, they might not.
I think the better question, I think, is this: Weiner HAS to support Carrion for Comptroller, right? Supporting Katz, Yassky, or Weprin will get him nothing and will only hurt him with Latinos. All are jewish and Katz is also from Forest Hills like Weiner (Yassky also already plays to the young crowd like Weiner). Thus, none help Weiner. I think he has to endorse Carrion to even think about getting Latino support.
At this point...Weiner may have to support Carrion, but Carrion may not have to support Weiner. Are Markowitz and Gotbaum really going to see this race through to the end? Their presence or absence may change things. And although Bill Thompson is a less than inspiring candidate, he will still be formidable.
It's still early. Weiner has time to figure out what his best move will be.
Huh? The "Latino Community" owes it to Weiner? In a city of over eight million? What kind of two dimensional cartoon chatter is this?
Weinberger is out of his mind. Do you seriously think the Latino community remembers Weiner stepping aside for Ferrer? Even if they do, do you honestly think they'll support Weiner over something so weak when Thompson's in the race. I'm willing to guarantee right now that the Latinos in the Bronx (Diaz/Rivera/Arroyo dynasties) and Northern Manhattan (Espaillat & Martinez if they're agreeing on the day of the week) are 100% supporting Billy Thompson.
The only Latino support Weiner might get is Jose Peralta, and that's only if Crowley is supporting Weiner. Monserrate will probably go with Thompson as well, regardless (or probably because) of the Queens County decision.
In the end, it's not gonna matter. I'll predict right now that Weiner will still get the nomination, even without minority support and will be our next mayor. The blue-collar white base in Queens/Brooklyn/SI + the limo liberals in Manhattan = Weiner victory.
That might be true except that many of the blue-collar whites in Weiner's own district hate him. He can thank his support of the Cross Harbor Tunnel for that.
Forget the Thompson Latino vote, can he take the Black vote? Sure the Latin vote doesn't owe much to Weiner for not being an idiot but hey,its something. And that last shit about the Cross Harbor Tunnel, that won't cost many votes outside of a tiny NIMYB Queens constituency, Weiner has led the Jihad against congestion pricing and for that he will get "credit" in the former two-fare zones. That will far wipe out any negative from Nadler's freight tunnel. Who wants that anyway, it only means about 100,000 jobs?
I wouldn't necessary put the Latino vote in Thompson column. The Black/Latino "supposed" coalition did not work for Freddy. In fact, if I recall, approximately 47% of Blacks voted for Bloomberg. Does not seem like much of a coalition. Latinos may not remember Weiner's favor of stepping down, but they will not forget being stabbed in the back. And, the fact the Carrion was essentially forced out of the race for Thompson's sake, will not bode well with the Latino community either. Thompson has a rough road ahead.