Less than 20 percent of the votes are in and Hillary Clinton has a small lead over Barack Obama, while exit polls show Obama will have small lead over Hillary. The exit polls are probably right, mainly because the first votes counted in New Hampshire are traditionally from Manchester, the state’s largest city and a Clinton stronghold. The next wave of returns should favor Obama, especially when the independent-dominated suburbs of southern New Hampshire begin reporting their numbers.

But, the fact is that the media radically inflated the expectations for Obama over the last few days, speculating about a possible blowout win for him tonight and offering what amounted to a rough draft of Hillary’s political obituary. But even if she loses tonight, it appears the outcome will be close. And now the stage is set for her to pull the same trick her husband did in 1992, when Bill Clinton–who lost to Paul Tsongas by nearly 10 points–called himself “the Comeback Kid.” The media bought it, and Tsongas and Clinton essentially split the New Hampshire bounce.

Look for the Clinton campaign to treat Hillary’s speech tonight, even she is on the short side of the results, like a Super Bowl victory party. And look for Hillary to smile and call herself another “Comeback Kid”–or maybe even “the Comeback Girl.”

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