If She Loses, What Then?
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Wise Guys
As devastating as it was to her party, it was—in purely political terms—good news for Hillary Clinton when John Kerry finished inches short of George W. Bush in the 2004 election.
Ms. Clinton had opted to sit out the '04 race, a decision that placed the fate of whatever White House ambition she harbored in Mr. Kerry's hands. A Kerry victory in '04 would have taken the Democratic nomination out of play until 2012, by which time other Democrats—like Vice President John Edwards, for instance—would likely have emerged and eclipsed her.
But Mr. Kerry's defeat ensured an open nomination for 2008, and an enticing one at that, with no incumbent President or Vice President running on the Republican side.
What nobody in the Clinton universe—or the rest of the universe—foresaw was the emergence of Barack Obama as an '08 candidate. And with Mr. Obama now on the verge of besting her for the Democratic nomination, Ms. Clinton may soon find herself in the same spot she was in four years ago: with her Presidential hopes hanging on the demise of the Democratic nominee.
If Obama wins the primary and loses the general, it could enable Ms. Clinton to build a powerful case for a turn of her own at the top of the ticket the next time around. This is rooted in the assumption that an Obama defeat would be the result of the kind of political attacks and G.O.P. campaign tactics that Ms. Clinton has been warning Democrats about. In the wake of an Obama loss, she could say to her fellow Democrats, in effect: You let your emotions cloud your judgment in 2008 and look what it got you; now let me show you how it's done.
But this assumes that Democrats don't end up blaming Ms. Clinton for the defeat. This creates a difficult balancing act for her right now: weighing the value of amplified attacks on Mr. Obama in pursuit of this year's nomination against the damage that the memory of those attacks could do to her '12 hopes.
And her dilemma will be even more wrenching if she wins enough upcoming primaries to last through the entire primary season. Presumably, she would still trail Mr. Obama in pledged delegates and—very likely—the cumulative popular vote. That would mean that forcing an ugly, explosive, and protracted fight over the Michigan and Florida delegations (which would favor her lopsidedly if they were seated at the convention) would represent her only chance of victory. Theoretically, she could pull it off. But if she tried and failed, the hard feelings among Democrats could be permanent.
The last thing that Ms. Clinton needs is to be remembered as another Eugene McCarthy, who failed in his bid for the 1968 Democratic nomination (although he did succeed in knocking President Lyndon Johnson out of the race) and then, sluggishly and grudgingly, offered the most lukewarm of endorsements to Hubert Humphrey. When Richard Nixon beat Humphrey by one point and a few dozen electoral votes, some irate Democrats branded McCarthy a saboteur. He tried to run again in 1972, but was trounced in the New Hampshire and Wisconsin primaries and promptly dropped out.
If Ms. Clinton resists the temptation to go with scorched-earth tactics and acts as a team player in the fall, she would be well-positioned for a comeback if Mr. Obama fails. Her campaign has made its share of tactical mistakes, but she has demonstrated substantial support amid record-shattering Democratic turnout. If she does fall short this year, it will be more the result of an unforeseen tidal wave of support for her opponent than because Ms. Clinton's own support collapsed. And, in the wake of another G.O.P. victory, her boasts of possessing a unique ability to defeat Republicans would take on new resonance.
Of course, if Mr. Obama gets nominated, it's quite likely that he'll win. And that would probably do in Ms. Clinton's White House hopes. With Mr. Obama presumably seeking re-election in '12, the nomination wouldn't open until 2016, when Ms. Clinton would be pushing 70. And by then, there's a good chance the Democratic Party will have gotten over its fascination with the Clintons—a fixation that has been nursed this decade by the party's defeats in 2000 and 2004.
If next January brings an Obama presidency, Ms. Clinton's best option in the political arena would probably rest in the Senate. Harry Reid turns 70 this year. Ms. Clinton could set her sights on succeeding him and becoming the first female Senate Majority Leader.
But if it's a Republican who takes the oath of office next year, it should mean, among other things, another shot at the White House for Hillary Clinton.
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I'm sure Obama will win - look at all the things he will do for you: http://obamawill.com
It is sad she worked so hard and wanted it so bad as an individual but also the core in her village had or still have lots of hopes she will be the one; but her dreams, actions and her future role will still be part of this rich history. Hopefully it does not get stain as a result of listening to too many disconnected and expensive advisers.
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THE DEMOCRATS ARE ELIMINATING ONE "ENTITLEMENT" --- HILLARY !
SHE THOUGHT SHE WAS ENTITLED TO THE NOMINATION.
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HILLARY TO DROP BOMB TONIGHT --- "Obama is part of the vast right-wing conspiracy."
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hillary better make it ,we at the ODA IN NY are dependent on her for funding , i mean my livehood is dependent on her...Also if she looses I think she is gonna be divorced from bill very shortly,,so all eyes on hillary ,,yea hilly go for it for the good of you and the rest of us..go baby go
Something for all the clinton supporters to think about! If the dream is that Hillary is elected president of the US, then that means that a majority of voters have decided to install her as Commander & Chief of the US Armed Forces. I suppose that would make Bill the first man, wich not a whole lot to do except manage the 'female aids'. That my friend sounds like a fox guarding the hen house, doesn't it?? But, wait, Bill can also devote quite a bit of time to his foundation and value contributor. What a deal, it sounds like having your cake and eating it too. Or to make the situation even more profoundly absurd if something happend to Hillary, then Bill's back (hmmmm, Bill might possibly spill the bean that Hillary is a closet Lesbian and the people ask for her impeachment, hahaha)... NO HILLARY EVER!!!!
The sooner I see Satan brought to tears, the happier I will be and the better off the country will be. Still, Barry Obama will not prevail in November so we may see her return to the national stage (minimizing, at least, her need to hector us in NYC).
"If Mr. Obama gets nominated, it's quite likely that he'll win"??? No, Obambi's fans aren't delusional--they're just a little overconfident.
Hillary and her dysfunctional, ineffective cabal should decamp New York when she loses. We have been leveraged enough and...don't want/need losers commoditizing us. Go home to Arkansas, if they will have you. Turn the page in New York, as well!
You guys are brutal. Sit down and look at the positives. What is strong in her legacy? She is making history! You all sound like the fans that only choose a winning horse.
an about entitlements - please read free lunch
the biggest entitlements are purely reserved for the very rich - JMc's primary constituency; in fact all those lobbyist in his staff have free range in crafting them.
buy yeah in the demo side - she does try to claim that priviledge.
i also think - just because she is a strong woman does not predispose her to any particular sexual orientation;
she is strong and firm and that is why she does turn some people off - they are not ready to see those qualities on a woman;
Go Hillary ! you go girl.
I love Nancy Pelosi, mother of five and grandmother of many more! I don't know who her husband is, and don't need to. She's not running for President. Billary, desperately seeking an illegal joint 3rd and 4th Term -- are not what I had in mind when a woman broke through the glass ceiling. Gaming the system and sending your husband out to fight your battles -- is not what the Nation needs now, or ever! Not just ANY woman will do -- or man, no matter what his ethnicity, name, etc. or WHO his parents are. No more legacy Presidents -- or college entrants, for that matter. Elite legacies are holding America back, breeding an elite class aka Jamie Johnson's movies. Chelsea speaks -- and, voila, a New York Magazine article immediately defaults to SHE is the Clinton legacy and should run. Ridiculous. Pathetic. Turn the page -- and may many more like Barack, including young women coming through universities and through the ranks of politics -- make it through the ELITE LEGACY GAMING OF OUR SYSTEM!
She'll go back to the senate and start representing the people of New York again and stop missing so many votes. Maybe she'll get bored in 2012 and not want to run again, then we can give Pataki the seat.
It'll be nice to get them off the national radar once and for all.
Put the blame on Bill. He is the reason Al Gore lost and the reason most voters are not keen on Hillary. The "Clinton fatigue" factor is huge. Should she get the nomination, the Republicans will wave the blue dress again and pull out the Lewinsky factor.
I, like the rest of the nation, am not ready to go through that again.
It's over.
She lost.
Move on.
In the world of presidential politics, timing is everything. Who would have thought back in December of 2004 that '08 wouldn't be hers. Everyone thought Obama's time would come in 2016, after he did a stint on the senate floor, while growing a fat neck. But Mr. Obama recognized the nation's hunger for change, not in 2016, but now. With an organization built from the bottom up, he wacked the Clinton machine in a way no one could forsee - including "The Clintons".
Not since Nixon, back in 1968 has anyone had a second chance to run for the presidency. So when Hillary loses the nomination to Obama, she needs to move on. Regardless of who wins in November, Hillary Clinton will be yesterday's news in 2012.
What is somewhat perplexing about Hillary's win at all cost strategy, is that as a U.S. Senator, she has one of the greatest political jobs in the world, and she can probably remain in the Senate for another two decades, if she wants to.
Her desperation for the office of presidency, is disturbing. It certainly doesn't bode well, for what kind of leader she would ultimately be.
Considering her repudiation by so many major party figures, considering the damage to the party she has caused by continuing to campaign when he voters rejected her, considering the breathtaking ineptitude of her campaign -- wouldn't it be obvious that Hillary is finished as a national figure no matter what happens in November?
Hillary as Senate Majority leader would be a disaster. She's already proven that she's inept in managing and appointing people.
She's petty and hold grudges so rather than placing those with skills in power, she'd do it based on loyalty. We need a smart leader who is able to think out of the box - something she's incapable of. She's a hard worker, but a plodder and not someone people want to be led by.
I find the Obama sceptics a pretty deluded bunch.Just what does McCain have to offer the country?More of the same, with a slight difference,Republican policy, ie. what should trickle down will pretty much stay where it is.Most of the people who read this paper will not be better off, economically.We will remain roundly hated by a few billion people, many of whom ready to take another shot at us.Infrastructure will continue to crumble, New Orleans to be neglected, the climate to warm up.If you don't have health care now, don't think you'll get it with a Republican in office.And the war will go on. And on. And on.Obama will sell a program that the majority of Americans will welcome quite simply because they will profit from it, and I don't think he will have any problems articulating its details.McCain is very old hat, and I think he's lacking somewhat in the cattle department, too.Obama will--very patiently, very civilly, very eloquently--wear him down.
"Inches short of George Bush"??? Last I looked, George Bush won by over 3 million votes in 2004. Hardly inches.
The democratic nomination reminds me of the Minnesota Governers race of 1998 in which Jesse Ventura got elected as Govenor. People voted based upon emotion and NOT facts and basically paid the price later. IT WAS A BIG MISTAKE!
I'm not comparing Obama to Ventura but am comparing the people's emotions now to 1998 in Minnesota. Obama seems to be a good person, but we really don't know! Am i missing something here? I hear everyday that Obama is the one to bring this country together? Ok .. I agree.. Visualize this: " He has everyone in the same room and united. But united on WHAT? and then everyone wants " Change". What does this mean and how is Obama going to accomplish it?
Everyone looks at Obama as futeristic but in fact he is trying to accomplish something that that was accomplished years ago, " Repairing the divide in this country AND BRINGING PEOPEL TOGETHER. There will always be a divide, people wanting different things and NO, neither Hillary or Obama can please everyone.DON'T VOTE FOR A PERSON BASED UPON JUST WANTING CHANGE,DON'T VOTE BASED UPON EMOTION.vOTE BASED UPON PURE FACTS! When trying to tear down the existing condition of this country, DON"T FORGET that we live in the GREATEST NATION ON EARTH. DON'T LET YOUR EMOTIONS DO TO YOUR COUNTRY WHAT THE 1998 GOVERNORS RACE DID TO MINNESOTA AND REGRET YOUR DECISION AND MAY " GOD BLESS AMERICA"
Barack Obama should go to Hillary and promise her that she will get the first Supreme Court nomination if he is president. She would be great on the Supreme Court. Although she wouldn't be the first woman on the Supreme Court, it would still be a historic appointment.
He might assauge her women supporters by choosing her as his running mate, but it's true that she'll be a bit old in 8 years. (I'm almost 72 and begin to understand just how much your mental powers and stamina decline with age.)
He does need to choose a woman as his vice presidential nominee, I believe. That almost attract the Hillary supporters. I suppose, though, that he'll choose a male military figure to combat John McCain. But we'll never have a woman president if we don't put a woman up where she will acquire both administrative experience and public exposure.
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Political Analyst - info@katrinaalliance.org
Re: Whether She Loses...(more primaries)
Hillary Clinton has the option of leaving the Democratic Party
becoming a Republican, Independent or doing a....
(Billionaire Bloomberg)
Ultimately, claiming VP Kudos as John McCains' running mate?
"Gaming the system and sending your husband out to fight your battles -- is not what the Nation needs now"
And yet Osama can't send his unpatriotic wife and oprah to campaign for him? You, mame, are an idiot along with osama.
Are you kidding? After all of the underhanded and incompetant moves Hillary has made, would the Democratic party really want to put her up again? Won't there be much better qualified and electable candidates in 2012? Also, Hillary's support comes mainly from the over-65 crowd, and there will be fewer and fewer of them as years pass. Finally, if Obama were to lose this year, there is nothing that would indicate he would not have an excellent chance again in 2012, especially since he will have time to work on his main perceived weakness now, his lack of experience - he'll have 4 more years to shore that up. Put all this together, and I really can't see Hillary as a serious contender for the presidency ever again.
You wrote,
"Of course, if Mr. Obama gets nominated, it's quite likely that he'll win. And that would probably do in Ms. Clinton's White House hopes." Quite likely he (Obama) will win??????You seem to be forgetting that John McCain is the Republican candidate, and McCain has a lot more experience than either Mr. Obama or Mrs. Clinton.
To Sharon Toji: Have you noticed that Supreme Court justices rarely speak in public? In my opinion, Mrs. Clinton likes to talk too much, brag too much, and "shade the truth" too much to have that position.
It still seems she feels something's being denied that rightfully belongs to her. That haughty smirk she wears whenever Obama talks betrays a lack of genuine respect and outright dislike for her opponent. Alas, I've always felt if she'd had the courage to pull
the trigger four years ago she'd be the president right now. And therein lies the difference between her and Barack today: timing is everything. Or, as they say on the street, "when you're slow, you blow!"
I think lenny is an ignorant ahole. Go back and finish high school or get a ged. Learn some english grammar and spelling.