The (Limited) Meaning of Obama's MoveOn Endorsement
MoveOn, the online network that connects more than 3 million progressives nationwide , has officially endorsed Barack Obama. This may seem like a big deal, since MoveOn has 1.7 million members in the 22 states that will vote next Tuesday, but it probably won't amount to much.
MoveOn's members, on the whole, are highly attuned to politics and government and cling to their own political views passionately. They joined MoveOn to connect with other progressives and to channel their energy into meaningful action. When it comes to defining their own political opinions, these are among the least confused people on the planet. They are not easily swayed.
Apparently, MoveOn issued its endorsement after conducting a vote among its members. Seventy percent favored Obama, while 30 percent preferred Hillary Clinton. Which most likely means that after the endorsement, 70 percent of MoveOn's members will vote for Obama in the primaries, and 30 percent will go with Clinton.
If there is value for Obama in the endorsement, it's that it reinforces his efforts to highlight Clinton's vote for the Iraq war in 2002—and her sometimes awkward efforts during this campaign to explain it away. Obama raised the issue effectively in last night's debate and again on the campaign trail. The news that a progressive group deeply opposed to the war is officially backing him buttresses this message—even if it won't change the votes of many (or any) of that progressive group's members.
- Poll
- Obama (D)
- McCain(R)
- Spread
- RCP Average
- 46.5
- 41.7
- Obama +4.8
- Candidate
- Favorable
- Unfavorable
- Spread
- Obama
- 55.7
- 32.7
- +23.0
- McCain
- 52.4
- 34.7
- +17.7
Keep in mind that only about 280,000 of MoveOn's members actually voted in that online primary. That low number is actually surprising to me.
MoveOn is supposed to be this huge mass of hyper-motivated activists, but they couldn't even muster 10% turnout in an election that was no more difficult than opening the email and clicking two buttons.
To me that says that their members really aren't that excited about either candidate. If they can't get 10% to vote, are they really going to get any boots on the ground? Or is the support going to be entirely financial?
Another indicator. They are active and influencers...and matter.
It crowded the Clinton campaigns story out of a news slot. That's significant, particularly because the Clinton campaign's strategy is all about ruling the news cycle.
hardly accurate information here
only 7% of their members actually were able to vote in this poll so i would hardly say that "their" members chose Obama.
why don't you try actually investigating your news before you make it up!! be a real reporter!
Moveon.org, now there's a stunning endorsement...that sure is gonna pull a lot of weight in the middle of the country (sarcasm.) Moveone and George Soros helped sink John Kerry in 2004, and they will do the same with Obama in 2008.
Does anyone think Moveon.org actually supports Hillary Clinton and wants to help her?
This seems like the worst possible endorsement to get. I am less likely to vote for Obama because of this, along with his distinction as the most liberal senator last year. This doesn't help you become a bi-partisan leader. This shows you're probably just all talk and no action.
I thought this guy was trying to get independent voters to vote for him. I guess you can only hide from your lefty liberalism for so long.
see video: MoveOn.org Pushes the Worst (Clinton and Obama) while ignoring Gravel for President
Eli, you and your organization are doing such a disservice to the American people. You and the people who control MoveOn.org are undermining efforts to end the war. MoveOn pushes candidates who ignore the US Constitution and International Law. Obama openly violates international law by threatening Iran with an attack.
http://representativepress.googlepages.com/MoveOn.html
What kind of bonehead analysis is this?
"probably won't amount to much" based on what?
and what could possibly DISprove the assertion?
I'm not particularly a MoveOn fan, but this is posting for posting's sake. Maybe you'd like to do some reporting next time? You know, with quotes n' stuff?
Absolutely ludicrous!!...probably won't amount to much...may not...what is this from a "so-called" reporter, journalist, whatever.
Anything could probably, or maybe, or whatever...next time you attempt to sway someone please have some analysis other than an opinion.
I voted in that poll but for Hillary!!!! who happens to be the most qualified for the job of President! As for Obama, I should like to quote Shakespeare, from the Merchant of Venice:
[He] speaks an infinite deal of nothing, more than any man in all (America). His reasons are as two grains of wheat hid in two bushels of chaff: you shall seek all day ere you find them; and when you have them, they are not worth the search.
republicans are much smarter than the average progressive socialist because they know obama will be blown away by mccaine or romney. obama is an extrme liberal who would utterly be over his head--- half of his support is coming from republicans who surely know clinton is much more formidable. our enemies are quaking in their shoes thinking mccaine will do the job which namely is A DRAFT of able bodied men and women.mccaine is the MAN of the hour.
I don't know how progressive moveon is when one of the big issues facing the voters is health care and if you read today's NY Times article by Krugman, who by the way has brought this up before, succinctly explains their differences on this most important issue. Hillary has a more realistic and feasible plan while Obama as with everything he promises is nothing but vacuous platitudes and his plan totally unfeasible.
Their endorsement reveals their inability to think originally and stand up for what is right. What the left does best is play progressive from their "lazyboys." Do the white middle class thing to hide their guilt and hypocrisy. Why the hell would anyone vote for a conservative dressed in blue.
HILLARY 2008! For U.S and World sake!
I am an Edwards populist looking for a home. I didn't vote in the MoveOn election, because I opposed making an endorsement at this point. My dilemma: on the one hand Obama's lack of specifics give me pause, and on the other I'm worried about the energizing effect Hillary's nomination could have on the right-wing machine. On the evidence out there now, it seems to me that Hillary is more progressive on a number of issues such as the make-up of the economic stimulus pakage and universal health insurance. But I'd like to hear more specifics from Obama to confirm or dispel that impression. And I'd like to see more from both candidates before making an electability judgement. I am definitley excited, however, at the prospect of either Clinton or Obama in the Oval Office instead of another representative of the party or privilege and hate.
I have asked Move on to not send me anymore emails as I do not trust their judgement .... jumping on the barack obama band wagon is just that... a fad. Barack is a sure looser against mcCain. Move on has bought into the right wing play book... Hillary is their enemy they fear. Barack... a piece of cake.
Sorry for Hillary. Sorry for women. Sorry for the Country and sorry for the world for passing up the best person for this job. Hillary Clinton!
280K out of 3 million is a statistically significant number. So the inference that the poll is not accurate because it doesn't count every MoveOn subscriber is foolishness. Argue a different aspect of the polling process. Don't let your feelings get hurt because Sen. Clinton didn't win in the polling.
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