The Many Gifts of Mike Huckabee (to John McCain)

When John McCain and Mike Huckabee forged an informal alliance just before the Iowa caucuses, skeptics called it a fleeting marriage of convenience.

With an assist from McCain, Huckabee would fend off Mitt Romney in Iowa, thereby wounding Romney and creating an opening for McCain in New Hampshire. Then, with Romney marginalized, McCain and Huckabee would call off their truce and tear into each other in a one-on-one battle for the nomination.

That’s not quite how it’s worked out, though.

For one thing, Romney has hung around longer than expected. The McCain-Huckabee strategy of teaming up to deny him momentum was a clear success, but Romney regained viability the week after New Hampshire with a do-or-die win in his native state of Michigan. He then essentially wrote off South Carolina and staked his campaign on Florida. In the wake of his defeat there last week, Romney now appears on the verge of a Super Tuesday wipeout comparable to the one that sent Bob Dole to the showers in 1988.

But through the last month, McCain and Huckabee have maintained their public chumminess. South Carolina was supposed to be their relationship’s turning point, but even though defeat there would have been devastating to either man, they both refrained from the kind of nasty campaigning that marked their earlier squabbles with Romney -- and that defined the 2000 South Carolina primary between McCain and George W. Bush.

And a big reason why Super Tuesday looks so bleak for Romney is Huckabee, who forfeited whatever realistic path to the G.O.P. nomination he ever had by finishing second to McCain in South Carolina. Despite that disappointing result, Huckabee is pressing on, and he retains the devoted backing of religious conservatives in the South -- the very voters that Romney, whose last-ditch strategy involves uniting the party’s right wing behind him to stop McCain, is relying on.

So while McCain is poised to roll up sizable victories on Tuesday in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Arizona, Minnesota, Illinois and probably California, Romney finds himself blocked out by Huckabee in Georgia, Missouri, Tennessee, Alabama, Oklahoma and Arkansas -- the states where Romney’s “true conservative” pitch would most likely resonate. Huckabee may notch outright wins in some of those states. But even if he doesn’t, he stands to split the social conservative vote with Romney, clearing the way for McCain to win.

And if there’s any doubt about whether Huckabee is aware of who’s benefiting from his strategy, consider his readiness to rally to McCain’s defense in the wake of Florida. With Romney shouting that McCain is ideologically disloyal, Huckabee is now publicly vouching for McCain’s conservative credentials and attacking Romney.

On national television on Thursday, Huckabee ridiculed Romney as “someone who didn’t hit political puberty in the conservative ranks until 60 years old.”

Campaigning in Oklahoma the next day, he repeated the attack.

“I think you can't just have a change of opinion on fundamental issues over and over and wait until you're running for president to do it," Huckabee said of Romney. “To say you never thought about the origins of human life until you were nearly 60 years old, I find that hard to believe, even for someone who hadn't run for public office.”

At this point, McCain is clearly getting more out of the alliance than Huckabee is-- unless Huckabee derives as much pleasure from inflicting damage on Romney as McCain does from actually winning primaries.

The obvious, if cynical, take is that the former Arkansas governor desires the Number Two spot on a John McCain-led ticket. And there’s a certain logic to such a teaming. By all measures, they do genuinely like and respect each other. As a governor, Huckabee’s executive experience would counter McCain’s legislative resume. And the Christian-conservative rank-and-file would be delighted by the presence of a former preacher on the national ticket. Plus, Huckabee’s warm demeanor, quick wit, and sharp rhetorical skills would play well in a nationally-televised V.P. debate.

There are a couple of things that could complicate the formation of a McCain-Huckabee ticket.

The first is that conservative elites, who already despise McCain, will demand that he use the V.P. pick to mollify them. We’ll swallow hard and help you beat Hillary (or Barack), they will tell McCain, but you can make it a lot easier if you put one of ours on the tickets. And Huckabee, with his economic populism, is most definitely not one of theirs. McCain is already reaching out aggressively to the conservative establishment, and he still has much work to do.

The other issue is the damage that Huckabee’s past religious and social pronouncements could cause the G.O.P. ticket with badly-needed independent voters. All of the past quotes that have emerged in this primary season -- about AIDS quarantines and women “submitting” to their husbands, for instance -- will be recycled by the media and by Democrats. More may be unearthed. To many general election voters, it would be the first they’ve heard of any of it. Winning over independents after the past eight years will be a difficult task for McCain no matter what. Why risk further alienating them from the G.O.P. with a V.P. candidate so easily caricatured as a religious extremist?

There will be no shortage of Republicans anxious to run on the national ticket with McCain. None of them have assisted him in the primaries the way Huckabee has. But many of them would be a lot more acceptable to the party base -- and much less likely to scare away independents. The last, most important service Huckabee may end up rendering for his friend, once the primary is wrapped up, is to bow out gracefully.