Michigan Stakes: McCain Means Order, Romney (or Huckabee) Means Chaos
It’s true that this year’s Republican presidential race is the most fluid on record. At varying points, John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee have all seemed to be plausible front-runners.
But by Tuesday night, after the results from what is only the third major contest of the nominating season are tallied, the race may be close to over—or it will be more jumbled than ever.
It will be close to over if McCain can score a decisive victory in Michigan, a state he won eight years ago over George W. Bush. A McCain triumph would represent the third and final nail in Mitt Romney’s coffin. The former Massachusetts Governor, who was already dealt setbacks in Iowa and New Hampshire and who diverted resources from South Carolina and Florida to make a stand in Michigan, might try to stay in the race after a loss, but his support would quickly dry up—no matter how much more money he spends.
McCain, meanwhile, would be ideally positioned to gobble up broad support from the G.O.P.’s rank-and-file masses in the next wave of primary and caucus states. They may have lukewarm feelings for McCain, but they feel no more affection for the rest of the G.O.P. field. And many of them are anxious to stop Huckabee, whom they see as a certain November loser. By getting rid of Romney, McCain would be able to lay claim to these Republicans, which in turn would make him the runaway favorite in Florida and most of the big states that will vote on February 5. He also has a fighting chance in South Carolina, which will vote this Saturday, where he and Huckabee now run even.
There is already strong evidence that the party’s voters are prepared to coalesce around McCain and ignore Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson, the other two remaining contenders. New polls show McCain’s support doubling and even tripling in the last few weeks at the national level, and he’s even edged into a lead in Florida, which Rudy Giuliani has long claimed as a firewall (and which will vote on January 29). Giuliani’s support, which was always wide but not at all deep, is rapidly melting away.
Thompson, meanwhile, is making a last-ditch push in South Carolina (although “push” might be too strong a characterization—he had no campaign events on Sunday). Heading into this Saturday’s primary, he lags badly in polls, with Huckabee and McCain vying for the lead. Absent a dramatic result, he’ll be out of the race after South Carolina—no matter how Michigan turns out.
But here’s the catch: McCain may very well lose Michigan. Most polls give Romney, whose father ran American Motors and governed the state four decades ago, a slight edge (one has it at eight points). And Huckabee, who hasn’t invested heavily in Michhigan but who benefits from the predominance of religious conservatives in the western part of the state, is a not-too-far-off third place.
If a McCain win simplifies the G.O.P. race, a Romney win—or a Huckabee victory, for that matter—turns it into a wide-open contest without precedent. Instead of heading for the exits, Romney would be rejuvenated. He’d halt any mass stampede by the G.O.P. establishment into McCain’s camp, and the jolt of good press and newfound momentum would make him viable in both South Carolina and Florida, with a chance to strip McCain of the “most credible” label.
It would also give hope to Giuliani, whose decline has tracked perfectly with McCain’s resurgence. If McCain falters in Michigan and again in South Carolina, then Giuliani would have an opportunity to win back the casual supporters he’s been losing to McCain. A win in Florida would then position Giuliani to make a score in the major February 5 states (New York, New Jersey, California, and Illinois) that he has long been banking on.
For Giuliani, then, the stakes for Michigan are stark: A McCain win essentially ends Giuliani’s campaign; a Romney win keeps him alive (but at the risk of being squeezed out by Romney, if Romney can then win South Carolina); a Huckabee win is ideal (although highly unlikely), since it would deal severe blows to both McCain and Romney, sending the G.O.P. masses scrambling for a new alternative to Huckabee.
McCain, too, could survive a Michigan loss. He’d still be viable in South Carolina. A win there (the state where McCain’s maverick ways finished him off in 2000) would put him in a great position to win the nomination. Otherwise, he’d be best served by a Huckabee win in South Carolina, which would prevent Romney from posting back-to-back wins (thus accruing momentum heading into Florida and February 5). Then he’d need to edge out Romney and Giuliani in Florida, which might give him a leg-up for rank-and-file G.O.P. support on February 5.
But even then, it’s doubtful the Republican race would be settled on February 5, raising the legitimate possibility of a brokered convention—a stunning prospect for a party famous for settling its nomination fights with speed and order.
I think we need a candidate like Huckabee because the status quo has not been getting it done. He has new ideas, and he is NOT mean or angry. He likes people and would make a great President. No president goes it alone. There will be plenty of Republicans and Democrats to keep him fair and balanced. I just want someone in there that I can be proud to call Mr. President.
I think Romney is the man we need for president. The economy and the War are the two most important issues for this election. Romney is great in both. He has been a businessman almost all his life and his stance on the war are the same as Giuliani's. in addition he is 100% pro-life and for the death penalty.
I like Huckabee. I think you over-estimate the "masses" who would be scrambling for an alternative to Huckabee. Also, people would be wrong to categorize him as being a sure loser in the Fall. In fact, I believe he is probably the most likely to win, especially if we face Barack Obama. Fiscal conservatives have no reason to fear him because of his Arkansas record. He cut taxes in Arkansas and left the state with a surplus. The taxes he did raise and the spending he increased were necessary, if not ordered, in order to govern a state which was virtually last in every category when he took office. Change for the better costs money.
He really does possess everything we want in a Republican president. Fiscal responsibility, social conservatism, but he also has a heart. This will enable him to reach across and pull in democrats and independents in November.
He absolutely is our best choice!
Huckabee's probably the best general election candidate and would offer a striking contrast to Shrillary. He's got sound judgment on the whole, and won't sell out our nation like McCain has done with his Amnesty Bill. Romney seems too phony (the GOP's Kerry); Thompson seems too old and mad; McCain is too much of a Democrat; Rudy is AWOL. Huckabee's the only one who could fight Hillary with a smile on his face. The most likeable candidate ALWAYS wins.
What is with all this Huckabee bashing. I mean, really, he would make a wonderful president and who says he can't win in November? I would be out there fighting it out for him. I've also been to a few of his rallies. I've gotta say, people are fired up for Huckabee and many people want to see Dems and Reps get along. I know Huckabee is the one that could get that done. Why pull the nation further apart?
Mike Huckabee is the man. He is fair and balanced. And I
believe will make this nation a Christian Nation, United
We Stand One Nation Under God.
As much as it would please some people, Mr. Huckabee will never be President. If he were to make it to the National election it would be a landslide victory for whomever runs against him. Giuliani, McCain and Romney are all viable candidates that are central enough to win a national election. Huckabee's views and support are so far out there he is not even in a position to compete in a national race. Look where he draws his support from now... his support will not hold up in a national contest.
This race is outstanding! It's great to see so many qualified and capable candidates on the Republican ticket. Furthermore, it really puts the choice of the nominee in the hands of the entire country and not just in the hands of a few states who vote early. When Huckabee won Iowa, I was worried that he was going to be the John Kerry of the Republican party -- someone who stole the scene early on, but is ultimately not really what the party wants in a nominee. A Romney win in Michigan will really keep the race wide open with Romney in the lead in the race for delegates, but behind in National polls. I think there is really a chance that the true battleground states will be those after super Tuesday. Unless someone is really able to breakaway between now and then, Kentucky and other later states may find themselves in the media spotlight.
I think Romney is the one real choice for Michigan and the rest of the states. Romney could apply a lot of economic knowhow to Detroit and all of Michigan. I'd love to be in a group that turned around Detroit!
McCain is a pessimist who ought to disappear into the whispering hallways of DC, where he may find his protege Huckabee. Win Mitt!
Steve,
If this is the same Steve Kornacki formerly of The Ann Arbor News, welcome back (in spirit if not in person).
I'm definitely against the media proclaiming candidacies dead or alive based on a few early contests. The rich tradition of New Hampshire's first in the nation primary is threatened because the media places too much importance on it.
Yet New Hampshire boasts incredible voter turnout rates - more than three times the rate of most states. It's a great test for candidates on issues, but shouldn't influence the rest of the country.
I don't see Romney as dead if he loses today in Michigan, or particularly alive if he wins. He outspent all the other candidates combined by a huge margin, his dad was a popular governor here in the 16th Century. He should do well, and the polls indicate he will. If McCain finishes a strong second or wins, he keeps momentum. That, too, will happen. The Huckabee wave is already fading nationally.
Unless the media makes more of this than what it is - a small slice of America, there's not that much to care about today. You're right to note the major trends, but minor stuff like a difference of 5 percentage points in a minor primary on a snow day with people already turned off by both parties by the recent budget fiasco? Simply media hysteria at its worst.
Do you think all the folks that are fiscal conservatives and moderate on social issues will vote for Huckabee??? For a candidate to be elected in November, he must cover the republican base and convert independants and even a few Democrats. The voter I described above would vote Democrat in November before they would vote for Huckabee.
Huckabee is right on abortion and wrong on everything else. Ergo, he is not a conservative. I'm a Christian and I'm a conservative, but I cannot vote for Huckabee for President of the United States on good conscience. His exit from the contest is what I want to see so the only true conservative in the race gets a bump, Fred Thompson.
To those who claim that Romney and Huckabee have great fiscal records, I suggest you should re-examine those records. There is a reason that Swift endorsed McCain and not Romney.
Rudy Giliani the person who turned around New York, and led america out of 9/11 is the best man for the job.
Funny how some claim Huckabee is too liberal, yet they support Mitt Romney who pushed mandatory universal healthcare with discount abortions, or John McCain who came about as close to treason as you can with his Shamnesty plan for illegals. Both McCain and Romney are waaaaay more liberal than Huckabee. So who does that leave? Thompson? He's only in the race to help his liberal buddy McCain. Thompson had no conservative accomplishments in the Senate.
Huckabee is the only one who appeals to Reagan Democrats, and standard Republicans, and political newbies and independents. All the women in my office--even the Democrats--say they would vote for Huckabee over Hillary or Obama.
If Obama beats Clinton, this Republican might just vote for him out of gratitude.
If Obama beats Clinton, this Republican might just vote for him out of gratitude.
Huckabee absolutely could win the general election. Everyone writes him off because he's supposedly too socially conservative for the general public. But look at his potential competition! Hillary Clinton, who's despised by millions? Barack Hussein Obama, whose youth, inexperience, and his Muslim background make so much of the electorate uneasy? Huckabee is a great communicator and could win over a lot of people on the fence. Plus, he's distanced himself from Bush's foreign policy, so people afraid of another 8 years of Bush would be willing to jump over to him to avoid voting for one of the leading Dems.
Huckabee is a fine gentleman and very educated, but when he just said that we should amend the Constitution to fit God's law...........scary. BTW, he said that at a rally in Warren, MI.
Look it up.
I'm an American living abroad, and from where I sit, the country really needs a President that the whole country can be proud of again. That means someone charismatic, idealistic, and willing to work with his or her political opposition.
As different as they are in ideology, the candidates who most fit this description are Obama, Huckabee, and McCain. A President who doesn't believe in evolution would be the butt of jokes in much of the world, but I think Huckabee could overcome this by force of his radiant personality. McCain stands for the ideals of thoughtful leadership born of pragmatism, and he's respectful of his opposition. Obama, because of his background and charisma, would probably do the most of these three to get many who have come to dislike America on the global stage to give us another chance, though it's hard to say whether or not he'd succeed at governing.
I hope that McCain wins Michigan, South Carolina, and the nomination. I hope that Obama can avoid being pulled into the Clintons' meat-grinder of negativity and pull off a surprise nomination. The country would have an interesting choice in November, and one that I think most of us could come to see in a positive light, whichever man won.
If Romney wins tonight, then McCain is up a creek.
Huckabee would then go on to win SC and possibly FL.
(Romney is not well-liked anywhere outside of Michigan and Mass. so he has no chance in SC)
However, if McCain wins tonight, then it is over. The media will coronate him, and he will win every other primary. He will pick Thompson as his VP as thanks to Thomspson for shamelessly attacking Huckabee. He may even appoint Rush Limbaugh his Secretary of State since Rush went exclusively after Huckabee, leaving the door wide open for McCain. Then we will have to choose between two Democrats in November: McCain or Hillary/Obama.
Over 65% of Americans are pro-life. Over 80% are pro-traditional marriage. When it comes to the Republican base those numbers are even higher. Therefore, whoever is the Republican nominee will unite the base of the party if they are believable and truly hold to those social positions.
That is the real problem with Giuliani and Romney. The base doesn’t believe them.
Since Thompson is done. Our choice is between Huckabee and McCain. Personally, I don't trust McCain—too many rebel positions and power mongering in the senate for me. Like Jim Dobson said, "I will never vote for him again." I think Mr. Dobson represents a fair percentage of the base—don’t you?
So McCain can't unite the base either. Why not beat Hillary with the most likable candidate out there? Mike Huckabee is the man!
MC-CAIN THE NEO-CON CANDIDATE IN THE AMERICAN CULTURAL WAR
New Hampshire Podhoretz Neo-Cons, who now dominate the news media, very narrowly prevailed over the Ronald Reagan conservatives, 37% to 32%. Does this marginal victory predict the Republican candidacy for Neo-Con McCain, that notorious tyrant who supports amnesty of the 12-20 illegal aliens occupying American, American women sacrificing the lives of their children by abortion, and the non-patriotic sacrifice of the precious wealth and priceless blood of the American People in un-constitutional wars on behalf of notorious little Israel; or, does this victory predict the Republican firing squad for Neo-Con McCain?
JOHN JOHN THE NEO-CON
“ROW VS WADE!” “ROW VS WADE!” “ROW VS WADE!”
"TAX AND SPEND!" "TAX AND SPEND!" "TAX AND SPEND!"
“AMNESTY!” AMNESTY!” “AMNESTY!”
“ISRAEL!” “ISRAEL!” “ISRAEL!”
“BOMB IRAQ!” “BOMB IRAQ!” “BOMB IRAQ!”
“BOMB IRAN!” “BOMB IRAN!” “BOMB IRAN!”
“HA! HA! HA!” “HA! HA! HA!” “HA! HA! HA!”
GOING! GOING! GOING! GONE
This was a misleading title. It makes it sound like he is attacking Romney. The article is fine, but the title is misleading.
You bet there is a reason. She was an underqualified acting governor who was sent to the sidelines in favor of a far more qualified Romney in 2003, and she never forgave him. The McCain endorsement is petty payback, pure and simple.
Doom and Gloom for Mitt! Enough is Enough media! Mitt is the only true Republican running,and you the media is afraid of him.Go Mitt 08!
Some(media persons) are being Stupid!!!
Michigan is an open primary state. Dems and Independents will cross over (like lemings running to the sea) with the poplulist siren call of "would be repubulican" John McCain. John McCain is an angry man (still from the conservative backlash in 2000). He will go to the "gates of hell" to get Osam Bin Ladin (actually he will need to go through the gates to get him) but has no real loyalty to the Republican Party. Michigan is not a true primary election test of who Republicans want.
Wait until the closed primary states. McCain's chances there diminish greatly.
Some(media persons) are being Stupid!!!
Michigan is an open primary state. Dems and Independents will cross over (like lemings running to the sea) with the poplulist siren call of "would be repubulican" John McCain. John McCain is an angry man (still from the conservative backlash in 2000). He will go to the "gates of hell" to get Osam Bin Ladin (actually he will need to go through the gates to get him) but has no real loyalty to the Republican Party. Michigan is not a true primary election test of who Republicans want.
Wait until the closed primary states. McCain's chances there diminish greatly.
John McCain is nothing more than a RINO (Republican In Name Only). He's been in the Senate forever and is an entrenced "good ol' boy". He is a big supporter of numerous liberal bills, including the requirement of much tighter auto emissions standards, costing auto manufacturers (and us consumers) BILLIONS in unnecessary costs.
The McCain domestic record is a disaster. To say he fought spending, most particularly earmarks, is to nibble around the edges and miss the heart of the matter. For starters, consider:
McCain-Feingold — the most brazen frontal assault on political speech since Buckley v. Valeo.
McCain-Kennedy — the most far-reaching amnesty program in American history.
McCain-Lieberman — the most onerous and intrusive attack on American industry — through reporting, regulating, and taxing authority of greenhouse gases — in American history.
McCain-Kennedy-Edwards — the biggest boon to the trial bar since the tobacco settlement, under the rubric of a patients’ bill of rights.
McCain-Reimportantion of Drugs — a significant blow to pharmaceutical research and development, not to mention consumer safety (hey Rudy, pay attention, see link).
And McCain’s stated opposition to the Bush 2001 and 2003 tax cuts was largely based on socialist, class-warfare rhetoric — tax cuts for the rich, not for the middle class. The public record is full of these statements. Today, he recalls only his insistence on accompanying spending cuts.
As chairman of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, McCain was consistently hostile to American enterprise, from media and pharmaceutical companies to technology and energy companies.
McCain also led the Gang of 14, which prevented the Republican leadership in the Senate from mounting a rule change that would have ended the systematic use (actual and threatened) of the filibuster to prevent majority approval of judicial nominees.
And then there’s the McCain defense record.
His supporters point to essentially one policy strength, McCain’s early support for a surge and counterinsurgency. It has now evolved into McCain taking credit for forcing the president to adopt General David Petreaus’s strategy. Where’s the evidence to support such a claim?
Moreover, Iraq is an important battle in our war against the Islamo-fascist threat. But the war is a global war, and it most certainly includes the continental United States, which, after all, was struck on 9/11. How does
McCain fare in that regard?
McCain-ACLU — the unprecedented granting of due-process rights to unlawful enemy combatants (terrorists). McCain has repeatedly called for the immediate closing of Guantanamo Bay and the introduction of al-Qaeda terrorists into our own prisons — despite the legal rights they would immediately gain and the burdens of managing such a dangerous population.
While McCain proudly and repeatedly points to his battles with Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, who had to rebuild the U.S. military and fight a complex war, where was McCain in the lead-up to the war — when the military was being dangerously downsized by the Clinton administration and McCain’s friend, former Secretary of Defense Bill Cohen? Where was McCain when the CIA was in desperate need of attention? Also, McCain was apparently in the dark about al-Qaeda like most of Washington, despite a decade of warnings.
Mitt Romney is by far the most qualified man in EITHER party and is a class act all the way. And yet since he became a GOP candidate for president, I have seen nothing but negative, trivial articles/stories about his Mormon religion, his money, his slick appearance, etc. fully intended to sway a naive electorate that pays far too little attention to the most important 4 year event in our country.
Mitt Romney is a TRUE family man and very successful at turning failed or failing enterprises around and Lord knows the United States of America needs turning around. It should be run as a business first, with a strong military to protect it from harm. All other social, giveaway programs should be scrutinized (and certainly would be under a Romney presidency) as to efficiency and even necessity. The fact that he was even elected Governor in a state (MA) controlled by 85% Democrat legislature was a feat in itself. In spite of it, he did a very admirable job as Governor, turning a large state deficit into a surplus. Of course, his many justified vetoes were constantly overturned by those liberal Democrats which made for a lot of frustration.
If Mitt Romney does get the GOP nomination it will be MUCH to the chagrin of the Democrat National Committee liberal propaganda machine because he will be their worst nightmare and most difficult to defeat...Obama, Clinton, or otherwise.