Obama Camp: Clinton 'Should Win Big'
The Obama campaign looks to lower expectation in Pennsylvania one last time. Here's the latest memo from Bill Burton:
The Bar for Clinton in Pennsylvania
With all eyes on today’s contest, one thing is clear: Pennsylvania is considered a state tailor-made for Hillary Clinton, and by rights she should win big. She has family roots in the state, she has the support of the Democratic establishment—including Governor Rendell’s extensive network—and former President Clinton is fondly remembered.
Clinton has been leading by large margins in Pennsylvania. In the weeks leading up to the primary, she led by as much as 25 points. They were so confident that their own Pennsylvania spokesman said Clinton would be “unbeatable” in Pennsylvania—regardless of spending by her opponent. [Washington Post, 3/7/08]
But as he has done in every state, Senator Obama campaigned hard and tapped into the hunger for change at grassroots, looking to pick up as many delegates as possible. Old-fashioned, shoe-leather campaigning, in the face of unrelenting negative attacks from Senator Clinton, substantially closed a once-formidable gap.
There has been much speculation about what each campaign needs coming out of tonight. The facts, however, are simple.
Behind in delegates and sporting a 14-30 primary record (not good enough even to make the playoffs in the NBA Eastern Conference), the Clinton campaign needs a blowout victory in Pennsylvania to get any closer to winning the nomination. Even President Clinton said that only a “big, big victory” will give her the boost she needs.
The Philadelphia Inquirer observed that there is “consensus” that Clinton has to “take the state big, perhaps by double digits, to be able to claim that she’d won it a way that matters in the overall nomination struggle—given her deficits in both the delegate race and the overall popular vote.” [Philadelphia Inquirer, 4/3/08]
That’s exactly right. And Clinton’s own supporters have been predicting big wins. Governor Ed Rendell and Congressman Jack Murtha—no strangers to Pennsylvania politics—have both predicted runaway wins for her. [MTP, 4/6/08, MSNBC, 4/1/08]
The Clinton campaign has been trying to spin away their earlier confidence and move the goalposts for victory in Pennsylvania. But the bottom line is that if Senator Clinton is going to make meaningful inroads in this race for delegates, she will need a huge margin in Pennsylvania.
The Race Beyond Tonight
Tonight’s outcome is unlikely to change the dynamic of this lengthy primary. Fully three quarters of the remaining delegates will be selected in states other than Pennsylvania. While there are 158 delegates at stake in today’s primary, there are 157 up for grabs in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries two weeks from today. We expect that by tomorrow morning, the overall structure of the race will remain unchanged—except for the fact that there will be 158 delegates off the table.
It wouldn’t be surprising if the Clinton campaign once again tries to change the metrics by which the race is measured. They used to stress repeatedly that, in Howard Wolfson’s words “[t]his is a race for delegates.” [Washington Post, 1/16/08] Recently, they have attempted to shift the focus to the popular vote, and the specious argument that primary wins in big states equate to electoral vote pickups in the general election. They do not.
Our strategy has always been to gain as many delegates as possible—an important point to remember going forward. If this race had focused on the popular vote, we would have campaigned non-stop in California, for example, and run up our numbers even higher in Senator Obama’s home state of Illinois. But we focused on delegates because, simply, delegates decide the Democratic nominee.
But even if we were to judge the primary on the popular vote, we anticipate having a comfortable lead when voting in the last nine contests wraps up in June. Senator Obama will continue to gain strength with Democratic superdelegates. He will maintain his position as the best candidate to take on John McCain. And he will be ready to unite the American people and begin a new chapter in our history.
We are already organizing vigorously in the remaining contests, opening local offices, canvassing, and engaging voters in this unprecedented campaign. We will have the financial resources we need to be competitive. Our message will be the same one that Senator Obama enunciated fourteen months ago and has shared with voters every day since: that the size of the challenges we face has outgrown the smallness of our politics, and this election is our chance to change that.
Looks like there may be some internal polling showing a closer race.
and there's only 21 Stages in the Tour De France.
I'm really glad someone finally brought up that this was a race for delegates all along. not suddenly a 'popularity' contest. Also, why does she just have to win by double digets? It seems like she needs a minimum margin of 20 points in PA and every state thereafter to win. and that's the MINIMUM.
This is like Obama being ahead 10 minutes after the first 18 stages of the Tour De France & the number 2 rider wins stage 19 by 2 minutes. Yeah it's a win, but NO, not nearly enough to overtake the leader.
But hillary, you keep on bashing Obama. Your plan to damage him enough to keep him from winning the General Election means you can take another STAB at it again in 4 years.
Your party should be so proud of you.
will somebody please tell me where obama's campaign money is going. who is he paying? his volunteers fade in and out...kind a like a peter pan experience.
I'm hoping PA will be smart enough to send a message to Hillary. It's over. Done. Finished. It's WAY past time to bow out gracefully, but perhaps you can regain some dignity if you do the right thing now and concede.
Like most of the younger generation I'm hoping that Obama pulls an upset in P.A. I thought Hilary was a good candidate at the begining of this whole thing, but really now I'm just seeing the truth of the matter. Baby boomers shouldn't run the country anymore, they are out of touch with what the future needs and maybe Barack will have a better perspective. Over all I think the dems can't lose, the GOP decided to run an old DOle like candidate. I like Mc Cain more than Hilary, but the gentlemen is too old for my taste in Leader. Oh and hilary should have worn some skirts for genuine appeal. Politics and most other professions may still be a gentlemens club, but at least in todays day and age you don't have to dress in drag to be part of the same club.
Peace out
oh yeah and if old people are offended at the context of age, they shouldn't be, they had their day in the sun, had their time being idealists and traded in the communes for suburbs. Let the kids dictate whats best for the future, since your death is inevitable.
Hillary wins by 15! :D
all those small town gun totting, bible thumping, bitter bigots will send that elitist a message that they are no bigots and they are not bitter.
Editor:
The democratic party and the superdelegates owe the Clintons nothing! That debt was PAID IN FULL when they rescued him from being thrown out of office following the impeachment/Lewinsky mess.
For the Clintons to ask that another presidency be handed to them is beyond belief. Classic Clinton!
More appropriately
"WHO IS PAYING HIM"
You get nothing for nothing and he is going to owe BIG Time.
They want Hillary supporters to believe she is so far ahead in Pennsylvania they do not need to go and vote.
He has tried so many tricks and won in the past, now he is running out of them, we are now awake.
Hey David Vida...typical Obamabot who can't or won't pay attention to any details. Details, experience and plans aren't hopeful enough.
Check out the Wikipedia definition for a baby boomer...your candidate is one of them...
Baby boomer is a North American-English term used to describe a person who was born between 1946 and 1964. Isn't BO 48?
Skirts? Typical sexism in the Nobama camp. It's okay to bash a woman because she is a woman, right? Just admit it.
Next comes Sharia Law if Obama is elected.
Oh these undisciplined liberal voters will never, ever get it, will they? In 2000 it was Nader that was the voice of change, and his candidacy was the opportunity to change these crazy politics. Look how well that worked out. Now it's Obama, everybody's shrieking and peeing themselves over how great he is and how great they are for supporting him. The guy's a joke, and he won't win ten states by November. Democrats and liberals need to stop blaming their election failures on the republicans--and of course the xenophobic, gun-carrying types, and take a hard look at how easily they are duped by wishful thinking within their own ranks.
Ha ha President McCain!
"Baby boomers shouldn't run the country anymore, they are out of touch with what the future needs and maybe Barack will have a better perspective." -- David Vida
Oh, um, not to disillusion you or anything, but Barack Obama is a boomer. Baby boom generation: 1946-1964. Obama born: 1961. The oldest boomers technically have not yet reached retirement age. The youngest boomers are younger than Obama, at 44. Get in touch with *something*, kid.
Listening to the smarmy Terry MacCauliffe,hatchet man for Hillary this morning on TV,I was again reminded why I find the entire Clinton machine and her,detestable.They have gone decidedly negative any way they can and typically deny it.Kind of like Billy and having sex with what's her name..I think the conservative talk radio guys like Hannity are doing everything possible to defeat Obama because they feel Hillary is unelectable against McBush.No matter how much she tries to morph her fat self into something else,she is still without a doubt THE most polarizing,despicable and deceitful politician alive.She cannot escape the fact that over half the voters in this country get nausea just listening to her shrill voice.Let alone seeing her.Definitely she needs to spend some more money on Botox and pancake makeup.Bottom line:Picture McBush,pro-war vs Obama,anti-war.Barack will landslide McBush just on the war.
Yo David Vida,
Got more news for you buddy. Everybody's death is inevitable. It's unfortunate that your ignorance and arrogance is common in Obama's supporters.
The only certain inevitable death is the political career of Obama.
Art, listening to your vitriolic statements, I'm assuming you're a republican that has been won over to Obama's cause. I guess he is attracting those crazy, hateful freaks
Art, you poor thing. Chill, baby, chill.
Shrill...another sexist term for a hysterical woman. If a similar word was used to describe the race of the opposing candidate, there would be civil unrest beyond anyone's wildest dreams. Civility is a thing of the past in her opponent's camp.
And commenting on her size (which isn't big, as I have personally met her and hugged her) is a convenient way to not have a logical counter against her.
Just keep eating the spoon full of dirt that Hillary keeps feeding to you people who live your lives in fear. It will all catch up to you one of these days. It's ridiculous that no one is accusing Hillary of being an elitist, when she is even worse than Obama. Use your real eyes to realize these lies!
HillGrrl (not verified) says:
Art, you poor thing. Chill, baby, chill.
Shrill...another sexist term for a hysterical woman. If a similar word was used to describe the race of the opposing candidate, there would be civil unrest beyond anyone's wildest dreams. Civility is a thing of the past in her opponent's camp.
That fat broad doesn't have a snowballs chance in hell of bringing this thing home. Think Bush got in easy against Kerry? Think about what they'll do to a Clinton. That shrill cacling broad is out, and PA knows it.
Art, I think you're right about everything you said. Hopefully the majority of people in America realize this.
obama is an egotistical, condescending, chicago hack machine politician (who also bowls like a pansy ass). Even after outspending Hil 3 to 1, his campaign still feels the need to lower expectations.
wtg David...I agree with everything you just said!
You sound bitter to me!!!
'tis a shame that we keep forgetting that hillary has been deceptive and negative...i mean, cbs blew up that mission just like she almost got blown in bosnia, right??? she needs to hang up her hat...character is a great marker to what kind of leader one will be...negativity begets negativity, so if she'd realize that maybe she would have had a chance...being divisive will only land her back at square one...no one will vote for her if she wins the nomination...America would rather see an old man take the presidency rather than a liar...period...paragraph...
baatin, you need to chill as well, my friend.
I love how her opponent's supporters need to resort to name calling, insults about age, weight and vocals to support their candidate.
Fat broad? How progressive and inclusive is that Mr. Sinatra? Geez, it's like I am watching a black and white movie from the forties.
Go Hillary! I can't wait to have her in the White House again. Can't you just see it: Billy boy clutching interns; she going after opoonents with the IRS and the FBI; doing away with folks that don't agree with her (ala Travelgate, Foster, AR patrolmen, et al). I can't wait to see it all. While she's off trying to improve the USA's image abroad, the rest of us are stealing the treasury blind, because she couldn't care less about the economy, middle class folks, non-whites, etc. Illegal immigrants will overrun the country like ants and you better learn Spanish quick, otherwise you won't be able to understand anyone in Government or TV. Sleep well America. Clinton Chaos is coming.
signed
A wealthy Aussie who doesn't have to put with this circus.
Has everyone forgotten that the last Clinton was IMPEACHED.
Short term memory always get's this country in trouble. Housing bubble was so 80's come on.
Do we really need another Clinton embarrasing this country and what it stands for. Bill perjured himself. That means he's a liar for all the uneducated folks who seem to favor Clinton.
The Clinton's cater to the racially biased better than anyone else.
Why is anyone still listening/looking up to these people? It's like hiring Ken Lay to run Enron again if he were alive. Who in their right mind would do that.
I couldn't agree more!
Go Barack!
Down with Obama!!
Woohoo, run his liberal ass into the ground!!
Down with Obama!!
Woohoo, run his liberal ass into the ground!!
I suppose you're right about the boomer context. I guess he is one.
Well considering that everyone is at the same level than Id just rather go with the youngest candidate whos black and better reflects the face of America.
My comment is hardly sexist, its only bringing attention to the idea that for hillary it seems she must project an image that doesn't identify the gender roles. That fad went out with the 80's
Its perfectly fine to criticize the superficial traits of Hillary, whats not ok is to disregard her attempts at succeeding for being a woman.
Finally I love trolling you you trolls
peace out