Obama Crowd Stunned
NASHUA, N.H.—Barack Obama and his supporters were brought down to earth in stunning fashion here tonight after their post-Iowa days in the stratosphere.
"Tonight belongs to you," Mr. Obama told the crowd in his concession speech. But, really, it belonged to Hillary Clinton, who pulled off a shock victory that put an abrupt end to Obama's momentum and re-established her as the Democratic frontrunner.
The obituaries written for her campaign in recent days now seem hopelessly premature.
The night's events had a disorientating effect upon the large crowd that turned up here at Nashua South High School, confident of an Obama victory.
As they filed out, many tried to put on a brave face. But their body language told a different story—one of dejection and confusion.
"I feel bad," Trisha Swonger, 48, of Merrimack said. "I feel like I should write Michelle Obama an apology. I wanted us to deliver a little better."
Swonger added that in conversations with female friends in the past 24 hours, she was "disappointed that a lot of women were swung by that little breakdown she (Clinton) had yesterday. I think we have to get over that as women."
21-year-old student Bill Cudney, of Brookline, N.H, said that New Hampshire was a "really tricky state. A lot of finicky people can change at the last minute."
Cudney said he was "disappointed with the result but optimistic about how things are going to go." His demeanor did not seem overly hopeful, however.
The crowd did at least have its spirits lifted by Obama's speech. Bringing back a slogan from his victorious 2004 Senate run, he led them in a chant of "Yes we can."
Those three words, Obama said, were "whispered by slaves and abolitionists as they blazed a trail through the darkest of nights." And, he asserted, they would "ring from coast to coast" during the rest of his campaign.
Obama was already looking ahead in the speech, making specific mention of the upcoming primary states of South Carolina and Nevada.
And, though he congratulated Clinton on her success, he also warned his audience that the "chorus of cynics will only grow louder and more dissonant" in the times ahead.
He told his supporters that they could become "the new majority who can lead this nation out of a long political darkness."
Tonight was itself a bleak time for his most passionate backers, however.
The first tremors of concern ran through the crowd streaming in to the cavernous gymnasium here just after 8 p.m., as early returns showed Obama lagging Clinton by two per cent and exit polls suggested the race was too close to call.
At 8.56 p.m., as the single giant video screen in the arena showed Clinton opening up a six per cent lead, an uneasy stillness settled over the crowd.
Dave Gourley, a 53-year-old computer programmer from Rye, N.H., said at that point that he was "very surprised" and that he had "expected it to be much more for Obama."
As it became apparent that a result was not going to be arrived at for some time, members of the initially feverish crowd pulled books or magazines from their pockets and settled in for a long night. Still, each diminution of Clinton's lead brought loud cheers while figures showing a restoration of that lead were met with silence.
Questions will inevitably arise as to why the polls were so wrong. Pundits seem destined to focus upon the same uncharacteristic show of emotion by Clinton yesterday that Trisha Swonger noticed influencing her friends.
Was that a reverse 'Muskie moment', presenting a more sympathetic side of the former First Lady? Or did her sharper attacks on Obama in recent days have an effect?
Either way, Obama's chances of winning the nomination have been dealt a significant blow by the famously unpredictable voters of New Hampshire.
In his speech, Obama insisted that a short time ago, "No one imagined we'd have accomplished what we did here tonight."
That may be true. But earlier today no-one, even in Clinton's team, imagined him going down to such a dramatic defeat.
- Poll
- Obama (D)
- McCain(R)
- Spread
- RCP Average
- 49.4
- 42.8
- Obama +6.6
- Candidate
- Favorable
- Unfavorable
- Spread
- Obama
- 56.4
- 36.3
- +20.1
- McCain
- 50.1
- 41.3
- +8.8
Below letter is from one of Americas brightest pollsters who is explaining what went wrong with the polls with Obama & Hillary last night.
(I worked with Matt while I was the Deputy Campaign Manager on a New York Statewide race/campaign in New York last year)
Thought you would like to know since all who read this blog are political savvy people. Last night was an embarrassment to the media, politicians, pollsters, experts & campaigns. (Reminds you of Truman -vs- Dewey)
Otherwise, all my predictions in Iowa & NH have been on target and better then CNN’s (LOL)…….
Jim Kelly - NY Conservative Campaigns
Jim -
Just yesterday, some major media polls showed Barack Obama with a 10-point lead over Hillary Clinton. But Clinton won the New Hampshire primary by at least 3%. At the same time, John McCain posted a much stronger lead over Mitt Romney than polling predicated.
The polls were dead wrong tonight. (And so was I. I told many of you that Barack Obama would sail through New Hampshire on his way to the presidency.)
Why? In effect, the pollsters double-counted New Hampshire independents.
How does this work? In order to survey likely voters, pollsters ask a series of “screener” questions. Here is how one public pollster, American Research Group (ARG), asks their screener:
“Would you say that you definitely plan to vote in the 2008 Republican presidential primary, that you might vote in the 2008 Republican presidential primary, or that you will probably not vote in the 2008 Republican presidential primary?”
Typically, pollsters treat each party separately when conducting primary polls. One survey will poll the Republican primary (and all non-Republicans will be screened out), and a separate survey will poll the Democrats (and vice versa). This is the case for two reasons. First, most states don’t have open primaries, so cross-party voting isn’t a concern. Second is cost, doubly true in internal campaign polling. It would be a waste of money for, e.g., Chris Dodd to poll Republican primary voters.
Several well-regarded campaign pollsters will travel to South Carolina tomorrow to find themselves in hot water with their campaign managers.
So let’s think this through. Pollster X conducts his survey in the Republican primary. Independents are allowed into the poll, while Democrats are not. Then Pollster X conducts his survey among Democrats. Independents are allowed into the poll a second time, while Republicans are not.
This is the polling equivalent of being allowed to vote twice. You create a situation where a voter would say this: “Well, if you were asking me about the Republican primary, I’d vote for McCain. But since you’re asking me about the Democratic primary, I’ll vote for Obama.” In fact, it creates the bizarre possibility that the same individual New Hampshire voter could be literally polled twice.
It comes down to what we call “sampling error.” Since the same Independents were allowed into both surveys, the poll’s sample didn’t look like the actual primary electorate. The 10-point Obama lead was only a paper lead — those were actually McCain voters who were erroneously allowed into the Democratic primary polls.
Should pollsters have known this would happen? I’d argue yes. We knew that both Obama and McCain both had wide support among Independents. At first glance, none of the pollsters realized this and changed their models accordingly.
One proper way to screen would have been something like this:
“Q1. Would you say that you definitely plan to vote in the primary, that you might vote in the primary, or that you will probably not vote in the primary?
Q2. Do you plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary, or the Democratic presidential primary?”
Notice that every likely voter is allowed into the poll, and then pushed into the appropriate primary. No segment of the population has the possibility of entering both primaries.
We desperately need to re-think our turnout models in the future, or we will continue to struggle with open primaries, early voting, etc., etc…
Hope this is helpful. If you have any more questions, just ask.
Best wishes,
- Matt
Matt Dabrowski
matt@goppollster.com
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED, Obamas' support team,
accomplished a PHENOMENAL FEAT.
The first '08 PRIMARY, with a margin of 2 points!
"A REALITY" (dire), for Hillary Clinton.
Grassroots, Political Analyst
Since I am a huge Buffalo Bills & NFL fan….Quick pun…..
In a news conference Deanna Favre announced she will be the starting QB for the Packers this coming Sunday.. She claimed she is qualified to be starting QB because she has spent the past 16 years married to Brett while he played QB for the Packers.
Because of this she understands how to pick up a corner blitz and knows the terminology of the Packers offense. A poll of Packers fans shows that 50% of those polled supported the move.
Does this sounds idiotic and unbelievable to you? Yet Hillary Clinton makes the same claims as to why she is qualified to be President and 50% of democrats polled agreed.
Jim Kelly - NY Conservative Campaigns
The Obama neophytes are slowly learning, that a black, unknown person will not be elected as President in 2008.
The neophytes will slowly disappear as they continue to LOSE.
Three things contributed to the swing from the polls to the actual results.
1. McCain's surge siphoned off some independents. As a canvaser on the ground I talked to many who chose between Obama and McCain, not between Obama and Clinton.
2. The female vote went heavily for Clinton. After Iowa going 35% Obama/30% Clinton/23% Edwards, New Hampshire's females went something like 47% Clinton/34% Obama. That explains most of Edwards' lower numbers and Clinton's higher ones in NH. Some (not nearly all, but some that I talked to) were actually swayed by the "Hillary shows emotion" clip. Kind of sad, but true.
3. The Biden/Dodd supporters went somewhere. My speculation is that their initial gut reaction in the post-Iowa polls was to go with the winner in Iowa, but that by the time they voted, many returned to the party base and the establishment choice. After all, these were voters backing men with 20+ years in the Senate, not looking for a fresh face or change.
None of these factors was huge in itself, but 1-3% here or there makes a big difference.
Oh, and the polls in Iowa were all wrong too, except for the Des Moines register.
I would like to know why people make a comment stating Hillary isnt qualified to be in the white house but he is. I do not see any reason as to why this man would be qualified. Why because hes black. That is the only reason I have seen and the only reason I think Oprah even backed him I am hoping that it hurts him that he did. I have always thought that in order to be in charge of the military you should of served in the military. These guys who sit at desks their whole lives and have had mommy and daddys hand them things do not deserve to even run for the white house.
Jim Kelly, it really should be noted that one cannot compare a the position of the wife of a football player to the position of first lady. I can't hope to list all the differences, but I will hit on a few key variations. Does a football player bring the opposing team to his house every day of the week and ask the wife to help tackle them in the house? The first lady meets many foreign diplomats and travels to remote regions of the planet as a representative of the President. Secondly, does a football player treat his wife as a teammate in the way that the Clintons are a political team? It is a sign of tremendous ignorance to try to compare the position of first lady to any ordinary occupation...especially concerning the Clintons, who are so unique in American politics.
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