Obama Should Champion the Cause of Michigan and Florida

If Hillary Clinton does well enough in tomorrow’s quartet of primaries to continue, her campaign’s next step will to resume banging the drum about seating the delegates of Michigan and Florida at the convention.

Barack Obama should support this aim.

Realistically, any Clinton nomination scenario at this point requires the inclusion of lopsidedly pro-Hillary delegations from Michigan and Florida at the national convention, since she's all but certain -- even with wins tomorrow -- to finish the primary season with fewer pledged delegates than Obama. Both states held "outlaw" primaries in January: None of the candidates really campaigned in either state, turnout was markedly lower than in other states, and Obama's name wasn't even on the Michigan ballot. Clinton won them both handily.

The Clinton campaign has been playing the voter-disenfranchisement card, arguing that the delegations must be seated to honor the will of voters in both states. This argument has not gained much traction, given the obvious flaws of both contests. But Clinton's hope seems to be that attitudes might shift if she reels off a late series of primary victories, starting with Texas and Ohio tomorrow. Perhaps then, the thinking goes, Democrats might be more receptive to finding a way to dump Obama, even if he has a slight lead in pledged delegates and cumulative votes.

Obama should, proactively, advocate a way of bringing both states’ delegates back into the fold. He could acknowledge the imperative of ensuring Michigan and Florida representation at the convention while stressing that the January primaries hardly represent fair elections. Caucuses, he could argue, represent the best compromise: They are paid for by the party (not the taxpayers), do not require the printing of ballots, and can be organized fairly quickly. This way, he could argue, there can be a real campaign in both states and everyone -- voter and candidate alike -- will understand the stakes.

This would at least nullify the enfranchisement argument, which could help him in both states in the fall if he's the nominee. And it would also play his electoral strength. (With the exception of Nevada, where he lost narrowly, Obama is undefeated in caucus states.)

A potential kink was thrown in this strategy over the weekend, when Florida's Republican governor, Charlie Crist, announced that he'd be fine with his state footing the bill for another Democratic primary, a development that was greeted by D.N.C. Chairman Howard Dean, the man who stripped Florida (and Michigan) of its delegates in the first place.

But even if a new primary were to be held in Florida, it's unlikely that Clinton's margin -- if she were to win -- would approach her 17-point spread back in January. Back then, her tally was aided by enormous early voting -- ballots that were cast before the national Democratic race had fully come into focus, when Clinton led Florida polls by nearly 30 points. Now, the race would almost certainly be a lot closer, and most likely the delegate totals would be too.

And if caucuses were held in Michigan -- where there is no comparable move to schedule a new primary -- Obama would be the clear favorite there. (In '88, Jesse Jackson won Michigan's caucuses in an 18-point rout over Michael Dukakis -- a win that, fleetingly, made him a serious threat to win the Democratic nomination.) Between a Michigan victory and a Florida tie, Obama would probably add to his overall delegate lead.

When it comes to Michigan and Florida, the path of least resistance for the Obama campaign is to do is what they've been doing: Bury their heads in the sand and hope it works itself out. And if Clinton strikes out tomorrow, that’s fine.

But if she has a big day tomorrow, then the campaign will go on, with new momentum behind Hillary and new questions being raised about Obama and his ability to make the sale. Eventually, the Florida and Michigan situations will have to be resolved and delegates will have to be seated. It’s doesn’t make much sense for the Obama campaign not to be pushing for the best deal they can get.