Obama's Poor Finish and the General Election
“In many ways,” the New York Times’ Adam Nagourney wrote over the weekend, “Mr. Obama is wheezing across the finish line after making a strong start: He has won only 6 of the 13 Democratic contests held since March 4, drawing 6.1 million votes, compared with 6.6 million for Mrs. Clinton.”
Actually, it’s now worse than that: Mr. Obama’s late-in-the-campaign numbers took an additional hit on the final weekend of primary season, when Puerto Rico handed him his eighth loss since March. It is now indisputable that Mr. Obama has struggled since emerging as the likely nominee in February.
The one contextual bright spot for Mr. Obama is that it is not a new phenomenon for a presumptive Democratic nominee to finish the nomination battle badly. And recent history shows that a poor form in the late contests isn’t necessarily a harbinger of general election peril.
This actually marks the fifth time in the party’s eight previous nominating contests that the ultimate winner has finished with a whimper, and not a bang. On two of those previous occasions – Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Walter Mondale in 1984 – the party went down to defeat in November. But the other two times – Mr. Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992 – the party prevailed in the fall.
The ’80 and ’84 elections, both thumping landslides for Ronald Reagan, were probably out of reach for the Democrats from the very beginning. Perhaps another nominee would have fared slightly better, but no Democrat could have radically reduced Reagan’s 49-state, 525-electoral vote thrashing of Mr. Mondale or his 44-state romp over Mr. Carter.
But the elections of ’76 and ’92, contested just as sagging national confidence and years of Republican White House control combined to poison the public’s mood against the G.O.P., were eminently winnable for the Democrats. That Mr. Carter and Mr. Clinton succeeded in those general elections demonstrates just how fleeting a candidate’s springtime struggles can be.
The case of ’76 provides the more perfect parallel to the current race. There are obvious thematic similarities between Mr. Carter, the Georgia peanut farmer who preached “trust” to a country that had turned cynical after Watergate, and Mr. Obama, who promises “hope” to Americans dispirited by the deception and cronyism that has defined the current administration’s tenure.
Just as Mr. Obama grabbed a commanding lead with a crafty strategy – amassing massive delegate advantages in small caucus states that Hillary Clinton ignored – Mr. Carter, too, outfoxed the Democratic establishment, becoming one of the first candidates in the era of the contemporary primary calendar to grasp the fact that early momentum could be just as important as delegate-counts.
Just like Mr. Obama this year, Mr. Carter stalled almost as soon as the inevitability of his nomination dawned on his rivals and the party establishment. By early May of ’76, an informal “Stop Carter” coalition emerged, and so did two new candidates: Senator Frank Church of Idaho and Governor Jerry Brown of California. Two others – Hubert Humphrey and Ted Kennedy – waited in the wings, hoping the “Stop Carter” movement would flourish in the late primaries and create a brokered convention.
On May 11, Church won Nebraska. The next week, Mr. Brown trounced Mr. Carter in Maryland while Mr. Carter barely won Michigan (by one point). Then Mr. Brown took Nevada, Rhode Island and New Jersey (again with “uncommitted” slates in both) and California, while Church grabbed Oregon, Idaho and Montana.
Mr. Carter was reeling, but he could afford it – such was his overall delegate advantage. With a win in Ohio in June 8, Mr. Carter surpassed the magic delegate number. Slowly, the “Stop Carter” movement receded, and by the time he accepted the nomination in July, Mr. Carter had opened up a 33-point lead over Republican Gerald Ford.
The situation in 1992 wasn’t quite the same, in that Mr. Clinton didn’t actually lose any of the late primaries after becoming the presumptive nominee courtesy of an April 7 win in New York.
Nonetheless, by the spring of ‘92, Mr. Clinton’s campaign was growing weaker by the day. The “character” issues that nearly derailed him early on continued to haunt him. Influential party figures openly questioned the wisdom of nominating him, and Ross Perot, the independent billionaire, surpassed him in general election polls. By the end of May, Mr. Clinton was barely cracking 20 percent against George H.W. Bush and Mr. Perot (who regularly netted around 15 percent of the vote on write-ins in the late spring Democratic primaries).
But as with Mr. Carter, Mr. Clinton’s struggles were a distant memory by July. After his convention acceptance speech, Mr. Clinton opened a lead of nearly 30 points over Mr. Bush, and he never trailed in a single fall poll.
Just like 1976 and 1992, the political climate unquestionably favors the Democrats this year. Mr. Obama is wheezing now, but he may be breathing easier by the fall.
ALL NONSENSE. THE ORDER OF PRIMARIES DETERMINES WHICH CANDIDATE FINISHES STRONG. IF OBAMA'S BLOWOUT STATES, LIKE WYOMONG, WERE SOME OF THE LAST PRIMARIES, HE WOULD LOOK LIKE SUPERMAN.
OBAMA WILL BEAT MCCAIN --- AS LONG AS HE KEEPS HILLARY OFF OF HIS TICKET. WITH HILLARY AS VP, OBAMA WILL LOSE --- AND THAT IS WHAT HILLARY WANTS.
7:40 am MST.
............
NEWS FLASH —–
GERALDINE FERRARO IS ON FOX THIS MOMENT ‘PLEADING’ FOR OBAMA’S SUPERDELEGATES TO ALLOW HILLARY TO HAVE HER DAY TODAY AND WAIT UNTIL TOMORROW TO NOMINATE OBAMA.
GERALDINE FERRARO ADMITS —- IT IS OVER, OBAMA IS THE DEMS NOMINEE.
GERALDINE FERRARO ANNOUNCES OABAM IS THE NOMINEE.
GERALDINE FERRARO ACCEPTS THAT HILLARY LOST.
_______________________________________________________________________________
I thought I was going to read an article about Barack Obama, not Jimmy Carter. Mr. Obama may be wheezing across the finish line, but he IS the one crossing the finish line.
He's still not getting my vote without Hillary on the ticket. McCain's not getting my vote under any circumstances. But without Clinton, Obama can forget this old lady's vote!
I'm pro-Obama but I really don't understand why he's nearly turned his back on the last half dozen or so primaries. I understand he wants to run against McCain, but couldn't he at least do that in the states that still have primaries. If I was on the fence in West Virginia, Peurto Rico, Kentucky, South Dakota or Montana, I think I would feel slighted that Obama couldn't even be bothered to show up in my state - or maybe make a token appearance - while Clinton is campaigning hard there. Plus, it's just bad strategy to allow Clinton to thumb him 2:1 in West Viginia, Peurto Rico and Kentucky. It gives the impression that he won't even try to convince white working class voters or hispanics he's the best candidate. Without these groups, the election will go to McCain.
Now, of course, even if he squeaks out a couple of wins tonight - and God forbid if he actually loses one of these contests - his viability in the General Election is seriously in question. Even if this doesn't make Clinton the next nominee, it weakens Obama.
THIS BLACK SOCIALIST S.O.B. WILL NOT GET A SINGLE VOTE FROM ANY WHITE MAN THAT IS NOT A DEVOUT LIBERAL SOCIALIST. HE MAY GET A FEW VOTES FROM WHITE WOMEN THAT FEEL THEY HAVE TO PROVE THEY ARE NOT BIGOTS. HE DEPENDS ON BLACKS, HISPANICS AND OTHER MONGRELS TO CARRY HIM TO VICTORY. HE SURE AS HELL IS NOT THE CHAMPION OF THE WHITE MAN. JUST WAIT UNTIL HIS WIFE STARTS FLAPPING HER JAWS. THEN THE LOVE FOR THIS MONKEY WILL BE REDUCED EVEN MORE.
In response to the last poster, I'll note that I almost AM a socialist, and even "I" won't vote for Obama. We need a populist candidate who is concerned with the issues facing the average American, not the crackpot social causes of the rich Manhattan liberal.
im not white but unforutnatly i think joel goodman is right if its obama against mccain which is what i think the republicans wanted... because they also know that what joel goodman said is also correct...that is why they downplayed hillary to the fullest because hillary against mccain would have been trouble...mccain against obama you dont have to be a rocket scientist to figure that one out...we havent moved that far from the JIM cROW lAWS...and if we have ill be shocked to the core
You know what "this old lady?" Don't vote for Obama. I pray he does not put Hillary on the ticket!!! The blackmail tactics of Hillary and her supporters is outrageous! A strong leader will not be strong armed into chosing her after she spit on him on HIS night! Her supporters are shameful, irrational,emotional and every stereotypically bad thing that people think about women!
How dare you? How dare all of you hold us hostage to this self indulgent insanity? The Clintons have held us hostage for 16 years with their psycho drama, and I guess you won't mind if it goes on for another few years! Senator Obama reached out to you and her other supporters, praised her and put McCain on notice.
Don't vote for Obama. Don't! If he doesn't win, it won't be his fault. It will be the fault of racism that is sick at its core...and irrational behavior from a selfish woman and her supporters who are more bitter than the "blue collar, hard working white people" that are now her best friends! The world is watching. You may not care. Don't try and move forward in the world and shove "our" ideals on others when we can't live up to them ourselves! If Senator Obama did "sputter" to the finish line..he did it with grace and dignity and the wind of history at his back. He did it with a ground game that beat back the Clinton machine and the skeptical media. He did it with all of the nasty internet rumors swirling around him. He did it with honor!
Hillary? She should not even have been elected Senator. WTF is wrong with New Yorkers? I guess you could blame it on Mayor Julie Annie for not running against her when he easily could have stomped her grand illusions from the get-go. Can’t blame him, however, for wanting to fight/survive cancer.
I once had idealistic and audacious hopes for better USA leadership. Nixon, while an overall good president, deserved to be driven from office for his misdeeds. Ford was a good man but with an uninspiring, ho-hum outlook on how to run a country (“Whip Inflation Now!”?!?!? UGH!), I was DESPARATE for change. Enter Carter – honest, well-educated, nuclear-sub-Navy veteran, businessman-farmer, former Governor, and other “all the right” qualifications” (including being untainted by DC power-lust). I voted “for change” on a “hope” that this individual would elevate us out of the muck into which our nation was stalled in. What a complete disaster for our nation, our military and the world. Thank GOD for Ronald Wilson Reagan – for bringing prestige back to the USA, for bringing the price of petroleum back down to affordable levels, for rebuilding our tormented military and national security back.
Obama? Are you paying attention all you MTV-generation, swooning soccer moms, pretty-face/nice-speaker-admiring, young “idealists” who think we’re getting another Kennedy (who, BTW, had he survived his full term as president, would have been a one-term loser like Carter)? Do you ACTUALLY believe this confessed coke-head, closet homosexual, pro-Muslim-leaning, anti-Israeli, more-Palestinian-than-black, half-white (for which he is ashamed of), “Black-theology”-believing, Marxist-Che Guevera-empathizing, anti-SECOND AMENDMENT, racist “black” man (with no significant national leadership track record) will actually be GOOD for the USA? PLEASE, MAIN STREAM MEDIA, QUIT GIVING HIM THE “EASY TREATMENT”. (Can you PLEASE interview that idiot Larry Sinclair so that he’ll finally get his 15 minutes (like Jenifer Fields) and SHUT UP about it already?) The USA IS READY for a good, strong, honest BLACK American loyal patriot to be president. However, Barrack Hussein Obama IS NOT the one.
John McCain? He should have never appointed nor graduated from the Naval Academy, never been commissioned an officer, SHOULD have been convicted in a courts-martial for numerous military infractions, SHOULD have been convicted as part of the “Keating Five” scandals, and, quite honestly, SHOULD have retired from politics A LONG TIME AGO.
It’s a sad situation that we USA voters have to (once again) pick the “lesser of two evils”. And it’s pathetic to agree with JOEL GOODMAN but I hope that there are still enough folks whom he describes who can be convinced to go to the poll booth.
Unfortunately, John McCain will have to grudgingly get my one puny little vote.
I agree with you. I think Hillary is going to help Obama in his campain as she will dropp off the race on the weekend. I will note for Obama if Hillary is not on the ticket.
Looking at this race from the point of an outsider (Canadian) I am surprised by the amount of vitriol Barrack OBama (lets call him Bob) can evince. You'd think righteous fury would be vented on the political philosophies that got you into a useless war, killed over 4000 of your brave soldiers, led to $4 gasoline, led to massive financial meltdowns that only middle eastern potentates can bail you out of. That this neophyte black senator is your best chance for better times for the USA, should be a humbling experience, not an occasion to vent rage and racism. Best wishes from the great white north, I look southward with considerable sadness and trepidation.
From sheer desperation arises false hopes that a pretty face and superb oratoratory skills, making tremendous promises, do despots and worthless, piss-poor "leaders" come to power. Two examples of each - Hitler and president Jimmy Carter.
Mr. B. Hussein Obama has too little original legislative background where successful NATIONAL programs or improvements have come to fruition. However, like Hitler, he has lots of proven ties to RADICALISM, MARXISM, and hatred (of whites, Israelis, and other non-blacks). As well, he possesses other potentially disturbing characteristics - such as alleged homosexual encounters (while not seemingly a big deal in today's society, but the fact that he is obviously ashamed to admit it), self-professed drug abuse (as late as 1999, well after he claimed to have "cleaned up"), pride for his "black roots" but SHAME for his "white side" ("my grandmother was a TYPICAL WHITE PERSON"), and the list goes on. The press, Matt Drudge, and "main stream media" (like the progressive New York Observer) need to get off their collective worthless asses and get to work on getting to the "real Obama". I think once the USA citizens get the entire "big picture" of this individual, it will be obvious he is not qualified to be Commander in Chief, much less "leader of the free world".
Mr. McCain, on the other hand, while having the disadvantage of being a mean, profane, old Navy curmudgeon, DOES have proven legislative prowess who has gone beyond the normal DC "status quo". One example was that he killed a very bad USAF tanker lease program being rubber-stamped through the DoD. Another is that he attempted to close the proven "gun show loophole" which alienated him from the powerful gun lobbies. And he even got so pissed off at the Republican "same-old-crap" that he threatened to bolt from the party - WHAT BALLS! Name anything "ballsy" that B.Hussein Obama has done. Throw his grandma, Rev. Wright, and other family, friends, mentors, "under the train"?
Perhaps there is actually something to be said for the staying power of an individual like McCain in the rat-infested cess-pool of DC politics. One thing is for sure, he is not a Bush-Cheney neo-con. He is his own man, not afraid to push non-standard ideas into the forefront. I don't like that he's for keeping our boys in Iraq but to completely pull out of there, post-haste, will surely be worse for the world and allow Iran to call all the shots in the Middle East.
I'd surely vote McClain-Lieberman!
He became the frontrunner after winning 10 in a row and had a string of bad luck thats all there is to it. He set himself up he knew this was coming the minute he became the frontrunner. Hilary finished strong because no one paid her much attention including the media because she was not the frontrunner.
Thats why there is this illusion that she is a stronger candidate its because she has not been vetted the way he has if she were she would be struggling towards the end or the beginning. Same thing for McCain he has NOT been put through the media the way Obama has thats why he and Obama is in a dead heat. McCain has flip flopped so many times WHERE IS THE STORY in the media.
I wish the media would realize that Obama isnt the only one in this race. They need to start McCain's tires. I'm guessing all the wheels on the straight talk express will start falling off when they do that. Being a war hero is NO EXCUSE to getting a free ride from the media.
Carol
What's missing from this report is the fact that Senator Obama won by creating a new coalition which included many first time registrants. Voters in the 18-25 age group have long been underrepresented at the polls, although candidates have courted them with rock concerts and other devices. In contrast, Senator Clinton had the support of older voters who have a history in the party, and part of her loss can be attributed to the partial (originally total) disenfranchisement of these voters in Michigan and Florida.
Beyond that, while the differences between the two candidates' heaslth programs has been minimized by the press, Senator Obama's plan favors younger people, while Senator Clinton's is better for the older population. (Note that that's a very superficial analysis, and in fact I consider Senator Obama's voluntary plan to be ill conceived and ultimately dangerous for the country.)
Senator Obama's poor showing near the end of the campaign may reflect the possibility that these younger voters simply tired of politics as they have so often in the past. If so, then the Democratic Party may find itself having a nominee whose supporters have moved on, while the traditional base may be considerably less enthusiastic. According to Slate.com, 20% of Clinton supporters will vote for Senator McCain. Since the two Senators had roughly equal popular votes, that's a 10% loss of traditional Democratic voters. If Senator Obama can't regain the enthusiasm of the first-time registrants, this could become a serious liability.
Given the way Florida and Michigan were mishandled by the professional politicians at both the state and national level, neither candidate could have won in a manner that would be perceived as fair by the others' supporters, and had Senator Clinton won with the support of the superdelegates, she would be at risk of losing the important African-American vote. However, it's worth remembering that because Senator Clinton's supporters have a long history with the Democratic Party, their loss and feelings of resentment may be disproportionately large in terms of both fund raising and volunteerism for the general election.
all i have to say is that obama has a lot of family left in kenya and the doors might swing wide open to another wave of freeloaders and what will he do if the terorists take his family hostage throw up his hands and say america surrenders or give them pathway to invade america with all his cronies.
all i have to say is that obama has a lot of family left in kenya and the doors might swing wide open to another wave of freeloaders and what will he do if the terorists take his family hostage throw up his hands and say america surrenders or give them pathway to invade america with all his cronies.
Your statement--"HE DEPENDS ON BLACKS, HISPANICS AND OTHER MONGRELS TO CARRY HIM TO VICTORY"--is not only racist, but misinformed. Except for a couple of states, Hispanics supported Clinton by a whopping 69% throughout the primary season.
I oppose Obama not for his race, but for the questionable race-card and misogynist tactics used against Clinton and her husband, and for gaming the system via the DNC which resulted in disenfranchising millions of voters in MI and FL, and for stealing 4 delegates from Hillary's MI delegate tally.
Spoken like a true Obamatan! Wake up! Your candidate--regardless of his race--is an empty suit who was mollycoddled by the media throughout the primaries. Except for a couple of weeks when his Rev Wright association was finally scrutinized, Obama got--and is still getting--a free ride from the press! Basically, another version--the Left's version!--of GWB is being shoved down our throats! He's an inexperienced empty suit who is easily controlled by the powers that be.
Obama is a great speaker when he has a prepared speech, but other than that, he pales in comparison to Clinton's knowledge and grasp of the issues. She ended her campaign stronger than Obama because she is the better candidate--which no amount of money could suppress in the second half of the primary season. The Super Delegates have chosen him because his supporters--mainly African Americans--have threatened to riot if HRC won the nomination.
A good many of Sen Clinton supporters will not vote for your savior candidate in November because of the underhanded and strong arm tactics he used throughout the campaign--and for the utter disrespect he has showed Sen Clinton, Pres Clinton, and her supporters.
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