Debate Prediction: McCain Finds His Voice, It Doesn't Matter
Inadvertently, John McCain brought back memories of George H.W. Bush over the weekend, when in an unusual bit of pre-debate bluster he pledged to “whip” Barack Obama’s “you-know-what” when they face off on Wednesday. That called to mind Bush’s unhelpful boast to a group of New Jersey longshoremen that “we tried to kick a little ass last night” the morning after his 1984 vice presidential debate with Geraldine Ferraro.
But actually, it’s another Bush campaign – his doomed re-election effort in 1992 – that more closely parallels the predicament McCain faces as he prepares for the third and final debate, just 20 days before the election.
Like McCain, Bush was matched in ’92 against a much younger and more charismatic opponent (Bill Clinton was 22 years Bush’s junior, while Obama is 25 years younger than McCain) and burdened with a feeble economy that defined the campaign and for which most voters blamed his party.
Just like this year, there were three debates in ’92, and Bush (like McCain) did himself no favors in the first two, failing to eat into Clinton’s sizable lead or to change any of the prevailing dynamics of the campaign. As the final debate approached on October 19 of that year, Bush trailed by a double-digit margin – only a few points more than McCain now trails Obama. Bush – like McCain now – badly needed a “game-changer” to close the gap.
He didn’t quite get that when the candidates (including independent Ross Perot) met at Michigan State University, but Bush did turn in a noticeably more aggressive and focused performance, repeatedly attacking Clinton as an untrustworthy tax-and-spend liberal who had failed to level with the American people about the true cost of his plans.
"Mr. and Mrs. America,” Bush railed, “when you hear him say, ‘We're going to tax only the rich,’ watch your wallet because his figures don't add up and he's going to sock it right to the middle-class taxpayer and lower if he's going to pay for all the spending programs he's proposed.”
Bush also ridiculed Clinton’s record as governor of Arkansas, reeling off one statistical category after another in which the state was at or near the bottom.
Taking the bait, Clinton defended his record and said that he wanted to do for America what he’d done for Arkansas.
“That’s what I’m afraid of,” Bush fired back.
Clinton, a naturally strong communicator, had his moments and held his own (as did the folksy Perot), but if there was a common theme in news coverage of the debate it was that Bush, after floundering around for months, had finally found his voice and was, at last, hitting his challenger where he was vulnerable. Bush’s campaign team was certainly enthusiastic.
"The focus of the election has finally shifted off of where it was – 24 hours a day on the economy,” Ron Kaufman, the White House political director, declared.
Bush’s debate performance visibly re-energized him over the final two weeks, when he hammered away at the same message across the country. But it only had a marginal effect on the polls. Bush did chip away at Clinton’s lead, but he was really just picking off low-hanging fruit, given that the Republican ticket had been woefully underperforming with traditional G.O.P. voters for months. So while he narrowed the gap to mid- to high-single digits, he never seriously threatened to take the lead, losing by over six points on Election Day.
It’s a bad precedent for McCain, who has signaled his intent to play the same tax-and-spend card against Obama that Bush relied on against Clinton. Just like Bush scoffed at Clinton’s pledge to offer a middle-class tax cut (something that Clinton, as president, failed to deliver), McCain now mocks Obama’s promise that 95 percent of all Americans will receive a tax cut under his administration. McCain’s attack rests on the same premise as Bush’s did: My opponent’s numbers don’t add up!
Among some voters, this strategy will work. But the same factors that limited its effectiveness 16 years ago are at work now. Obama, like Clinton, is a poised communicator and a likable presence to most voters. McCain may land a few punches in the debate, but it’s unlikely that Obama will go down. Also, McCain, like Bush, doesn’t exactly come to this argument with clean hands. Just as Clinton was able to throw back in his opponent’s face Bush’s failure to live up to this “no new taxes” pledge, Obama can respond to McCain’s tax-and-spend attacks by noting that McCain once attacked the very tax cuts he now supports as irresponsible – and that the combination of those tax cuts and McCain’s own spending plans is certain to (further) explode the deficit.
There’s a good chance McCain will perform strongly on Wednesday night, and that Obama, will spend much of the night absorbing attacks. But as George Bush found out in 1992, that’s just not enough to turn a lopsided election around.
I hope old man McCain goes after Obama tonight, because I think he's walking into a trap for sure. Obama reminds me of a gifted boxer, just baiting him to come after him - and then pow, knock McCain out once and for all.
I think it's really a matter of how much does Obama win election by at this point...? landslide or slim majority...?
My guess is a massive blowout that changes all the models the "pros" use to put us into red/blue buckets. Sound familiar, Reagan did the same thing in 80/84.
Game Changer
No matter what happens tonight, McCain wins anyway. Mark my word you Acorn Liberals.
McCain blasts Obama tonight on ACORN, Ayers, and his tax cut plan for the middle class (that just kill Small Business!).
On November 4th, it'll be McCain by 8 points.....
ABSOLUTELY AMAZING!!!!!
Now isn't this something to think about!
If Barack Obama would apply for a job with the FBI or with the Secret Service, he would be disqualified because of his past association with William Ayers, a known terrorist.
If he is elected President he would not qualify to be his own body guard!
How can someone who can't guard a president become a president this disturbs me and should disturb all americans....WAKEUP AMERICA..he is associated with many terrorists......he accidently stated he is a Muslim...NO ACCIDENT
ABSOLUTELY AMAZING!!!!!
Now isn't this something to think about!
If Barack Obama would apply for a job with the FBI or with the Secret Service, he would be disqualified because of his past association with William Ayers, a known terrorist.
If he is elected President he would not qualify to be his own body guard!
How can someone who can't guard a president become a president this disturbs me and should disturb all americans....WAKEUP AMERICA..he is associated with many terrorists......he accidently stated he is a Muslim...NO ACCIDENT
McCain on FOX: "Lose the debates - does not lose the election!" Watch interview here: http://yep.it/McCain
all you have to do is look at the past debates and see that all the winners were democrats, yet the presidential picks were republicans. i can only hope that this year is the same. i'm still living in denial that obama could ever be america's choice. the media truly has dumbed down america. it's a sad day.
Wake up America. Go visit a nation that has policies similar to those proposed by Obama, then see if you still want a socialist in the White House. Go to Canada and see what state run healthcare looks like. Have we really come to the point where we are so PC that skin color is more important than substance? I am terrified of November 4th...
How can so many of my fellow americans be so uninformed? With all due respect McCain is to senile and out of touch to be an elementary principle yet alone the president of my great nation. Where was McCain 16 years ago when we needed him? If Obama does not win we are all totally screwed! This election is not just about americans, the entire world is watching!
WAKE UP i say! VOTE OBAMA!
I am awake - wide-awake! As an entrepreneur I've been Republican, helping and working for the small business owner for two decades. Look around at what the country needs. Looks like about 98% of where people shop is at a huge corporation - big box retailers and over 60% "service" without producing ANYTHING. The Republicans are supposed to be helping the independent business owners - our country's backbone. Instead we have actions like the lobbyists in control by greasing the politician’s pockets - to heck with what we need as a people.
There's a fundamental paradigm shift that HAS TO happen in order for even business-people to survive: it's not about greed and how much an individual capitalist can get away with; it's not about finding the loophole to not have to pay your employees benefits or prevent them from having the bare minimum of healthcare and some semblance of security... NOTHING is "trickling" down - we're heading into the atypical third world economic status: 5% haves, 95% have nots. You wake up McCain supporters - YOU ARE ONE OF THE 95%!!!!
What we need now is a true leader - someone who actually sees the bigger picture and someone who can work co-operatively with experts on an issue to resolve it globally. Obama is such a leader and no amount of putting the other guy down to try to make yourself or some lame unethical bimbo running mate look better will change that.
As Obama stated months ago: (paraphrasing) "When I finally got what it's all about I realized, IT'S NOT ABOUT ME". And that my fellow citizens, is exactly the shift we need! For those stuck in the same old voting pattern, thoughts and behaviors - WAKE UP!
I'm voting for McCain. Don't trust Obama.
McCain rumbled, yet bumbled and stumbled last night. Some of his own party members have turned against him publicly. He had a couple of good moments, but overall did not get across a very clear message on what his ever changing reform will be. He was intent on continuing to attack on issues that most of us are tired of hearing. Obama is akin to JFK; i.e. he is articulate, likeable, and very in tune with main stream America. Nixon's tactic was inducing fear that the Pope would run America because JFK was Catholic; McCain has tried to scare America with 'terrorist' associations, etc. Get real!! We are not that ignorant to see through his Nixonian tactics!
WOW!
Did yah'll see the aggression spewing from ol' Jurrasic man McCain last night??? where was that fire early on in his campaign when he really needed it?
Obama is definitely the man! I can hardly wait for this conservative destruction to finally START to cease as it will take years to clean up. we truly CAN NOT tollerate another 4 years of this type of leadership.
All Presidential candidates talk about the things that they will try to impliment. The words "I will "Quote" when I am President" is just some words telling us, the people of America that they will try. They will make promises and succeed, they will also make promises and fail. Tired of the Bush Adminstration? Why not take a chance at someone that might make a difference? America will decide what is best.
McCain has become the irrelevant incoherent politician of the past, He offers no hopes for America.
Very well said 'Aware Republican'!
I CAN'T BELEIVE YOU PEOPLE..OBAMA CAN'T EVEN SLUTE THE FLAG...WAKE UP AMERICANS..IS THAT WHO YOU WANT FOR A PRESIDENT.....
As a republician....I waited and waited to hear John McCain tell me how he would reform the Government. Even my 12 year old son knows that without MAJOR reform..."WE ARE DOOMED". I had decided that even though Sara Palin "SCARES THE HELL OUT OF ME" I was going to still vote for John McCain....IF HE EVER EXPLANED TO ME HOW HE WOULD REFORM THE GOVERNMENT. He and Sara keep saying they will reform the government and neither of them ever say exactly how they would do it. John says Mrs. Palin will be assigned to do the reforming, which means that she would have to know how the system in congress works....BUT IT SEEMS LIKE...NOT ONLY DOES SHE NOT KNOW HOW CONGRESS WORK....THE ONLY CONGRESSMAN SHE EVEN KNOW IS...JOHN MCCAIN! You have to know these people and how the system works in order to get ANYTHING done...let alone REFORM them.
I WAITED...AND WAITED....AND WAITED....BUT NOTHING! I'm not waiting any longer. The "PALIN FACTOR" is too damn risky for me. Oboma is a black man and a democrate...two things (I will have to admitt) turned me off...but when I look at where this man wants to take the country and help the middleclass...to me "COUNTRY FIRST" means voting democrate for the first time in 12 years...."A REPUBLICAN NO MORE".
As a republician....I waited and waited to hear John McCain tell me how he would reform the Government. Even my 12 year old son knows that without MAJOR reform..."WE ARE DOOMED". I had decided that even though Sara Palin "SCARES THE HELL OUT OF ME" I was going to still vote for John McCain....IF HE EVER EXPLANED TO ME HOW HE WOULD REFORM THE GOVERNMENT. He and Sara keep saying they will reform the government and neither of them ever say exactly how they would do it. John says Mrs. Palin will be assigned to do the reforming, which means that she would have to know how the system in congress works....BUT IT SEEMS LIKE...NOT ONLY DOES SHE NOT KNOW HOW CONGRESS WORK....THE ONLY CONGRESSMAN SHE EVEN KNOW IS...JOHN MCCAIN! You have to know these people and how the system works in order to get ANYTHING done...let alone REFORM them.
I WAITED...AND WAITED....AND WAITED....BUT NOTHING! I'm not waiting any longer. The "PALIN FACTOR" is too damn risky for me. Oboma is a black man and a democrate...two things (I will have to admitt) turned me off...but when I look at where this man wants to take the country and help the middleclass...to me "COUNTRY FIRST" means voting democrate for the first time in 12 years...."A REPUBLICAN NO MORE".
As a republician....I waited and waited to hear John McCain tell me how he would reform the Government. Even my 12 year old son knows that without MAJOR reform..."WE ARE DOOMED". I had decided that even though Sara Palin "SCARES THE HELL OUT OF ME" I was going to still vote for John McCain....IF HE EVER EXPLANED TO ME HOW HE WOULD REFORM THE GOVERNMENT. He and Sara keep saying they will reform the government and neither of them ever say exactly how they would do it. John says Mrs. Palin will be assigned to do the reforming, which means that she would have to know how the system in congress works....BUT IT SEEMS LIKE...NOT ONLY DOES SHE NOT KNOW HOW CONGRESS WORK....THE ONLY CONGRESSMAN SHE EVEN KNOW IS...JOHN MCCAIN! You have to know these people and how the system works in order to get ANYTHING done...let alone REFORM them.
I WAITED...AND WAITED....AND WAITED....BUT NOTHING! I'm not waiting any longer. The "PALIN FACTOR" is too damn risky for me. Oboma is a black man and a democrate...two things (I will have to admitt) turned me off...but when I look at where this man wants to take the country and help the middleclass...to me "COUNTRY FIRST" means voting democrate for the first time in 12 years...."A REPUBLICAN NO MORE".
This country was founded on the strength of its middle class. Let's not erode into a two class country with the "haves" a tiny minority and the "half/nots", most of us.
Obama actualized his potential in a middle class family so he knows the value of being able to rise to one's optimum potential, while McCain came from a well heeled family and married an even more economically stellar one.
Come on Americans wake up...most of us grew up on the same path as Obama.....and he will keep us vibrant, alive and well.
McCain looks like he is coming unhinged. His contempt for Obama is painfully obvious. If he can't control himself in a debate what would he do if we were attacked and he was President? I believe he feels entitled to the Presidency and he does not respect Senator Obama enough to go through the election process.
I respect McCain for his service in the Vietnam War, but his pick of Sarah Palin (talk about no experience)as V.P. told me how desperate he is to win at any cost. His "win at any cost" mentality led him to pick this "one trick pony" and that is not "Country First".
Replublicans had there time...........any change is better than no change, OBAMA all the way.
I cannot believe how easily Americans are being duped by a pied piper. Just because of harsh econmics times, which are world wide, a mojority of people feel like the present administration is totally to blame. This financial crisis was not created by any one political party. But, even though I am going to be hurt, if we give the Democrats total control of government, I will laugh when people get what they think they want. I will not be laughing though, when we become like european nations though, where rampant terrorism and fear becomes part of our daily lives. We Americans are so spoiled, we care about nothing but ourselves. That is the beginning of the end of a free society. Go ahead, elect Obama, you deserve it.
McCain got his you-know-what handed to him last night. Also, I find it interesting people still seem to think that Obama is proposing a completely state-run socialist healthcare system. He is not, if you do the research you would know that he proposes to lower insurance premium costs for employer based healthcare, which you keep if you have it, and the state run system is only applicable to those who qualify for it financially. Additionally, offering a $5000 tax cut (McCain)to buy insurance makes no sense. Annual health insurance coverage on average costs $10,000. Besides, people, as much as I'd like to trust them to do the right thing, are more likely to spend that tax cut on a trip to disneyland than on health insurance, and I bet they'd still have the gall to complain about not having health care.
This headline is spot on. No matter what McCain says, does, or has done, the liberal media will report it as "no matter." I think they all must be sleeping. Obama is the most glossed over, hyped up candidate I have ever witnessed in a campaign and I've been watching since Nixon. In contrast, John Mc Cain is by far the most qualified, verified, dignified leader I have ever seen run for office; and the most minimized by the press.
As I have read these comments I am deeply troubled, some of the reasons for not voting for Obama...one he is Democrat?? I understand that to some folks party means everything...its like family, but sometimes you have to STOP and look and listen, and realize...hey what have they done for me lately...and totally throw party out of the way...listen to both sides, HEAR what they are saying, WHO can do the most for you? Who has your best interest at heart? As for Obama being black...first .... his Mother was white and his father black, so white blood runs through his veins also. But again the only thing that skin color proves is that he had to work a little harder to get where he is, he knows what its like to be treated unfairly and how to act diplomatically...otherwise...he would not be where he is today. I think if you do your research, you will find that perhaps both candidates care for our country, but one has a clear plan, has an understanding for people of all races and is not trying to underestimate women by choosing a running mate that has a Political agenda to further her own career with no interest in the American people that she would represent. I think you can fact check and see that both Obama and Joe Biden have a love for Country and Obama has such a great zeal to help people rise up to do more then they have done before. He inspires more from American citizens, Black, White, rich and poor. With Obama/Biden we all have a voice and we all can WORK to help to restore America, it will not happen in a day...do not be fooled...it won't be easy...life isn't, but OBAMA has the right plan....and if you read his books, read his story you will better understand him. Watch the news...Don't just take one news clip...or one persons word for it...stay in tune with everything that goes on...not just one slip up! Listen to both candidates...Does McCain have the mental stability..(no he is not crazy...however Presidential tasks can be tiresome) can he handle the daily and nightly tasks of this? If not do we want Palin and her Husband taking care of business as they did in Alaska? How many politicians in your areas take their spouse to work with them and have them call meetings to discuss firings? Is this a power that we as a people want to trust her with? Has she earned this? I say we all need to pray...but do not let skin color or party lines get in the way of your vote...and for the record...I am white and I am voting for OBAMA/BIDEN...unless God tells me different between now and then! Your vote may be different but please at least let it be informed and based on actual facts not fiction!
You need a HUGE reality check! I have been an entreprenuer for 20 years and a corporate employee too (until 2004)...if you think Obama (and his lying, cheating, friend-enriching,
questionalble associations & alliances, voting fraud supporting techniques) are good for this country, you are in for a rude awakening.....
I was totally disapointed in the debates last night. I for one was going to vote for McCain early on but have since changed my mind. In the second debate I seen traits of him being a Bush jr. which is not acceptable to me. In the debate last night I further distanced myself from voting for McCain because he said nothing of value to me, a middle classed person trying to make an honest living.
At times I felt McCain had lost control of the ethic's, knowledge, and composure that a president should have. I'm really not interested in how his feelings were hurt but more interested in what he as president can do for the country 1st and then me.
I am somewhat of a person watcher and watching McCains shifty and darting eyes last convinced me he is untrustworthy and dangerous. Where as Obama kept it together and put the final nail in McCains coffin for my vote.
A Republician "NO MORE,
I have to say to see someone be honest with them-selves and changing a long held view because they believe it to be right is seriously refreshing and im sure so hard to do. I hope for the sake of my family and friends that people see your post and take note.
I am not American. I’m Irish living in Ireland. My wife (who I love dearly) is American from a small town in Wisconsin, her family obviously are American, much of my family are American citizens and I work for an American multi-national with a lot of Americans.
America and my family are at a cross roads. Each road holds its own twists and turns.
Upon this election and the choices of its people (my wife sent her vote in 2 weeks ago) stand the fate of my family! (the first grand child will be born in feburary. an new generation for america!)
They, like a lot of Americans are struggling but making the best of what they have.
Each time I come to America to visit family or fish the great and wonderful lakes of Wisconsin and Virginia, I see the changes and the slow but steady decline of the prospects of my family.
Jobs disappearing, factories closing down and the one that hurts the most is the places I love to stop for breakfast before a days fishing, now all closed and boarded up.
Passing friends that I used to see each year now gone and their place of work and happy times GONE!!
Whoever anyone votes for, for whatever reason, make that reason the right one for the health, safety and well-being of all your/our families, which at the end of the day is the great country of America, a family that is on brink of a very tough road.
Chose wisely this time. It could put all our families in a world they really don’t want or need.
Our families are all we have. the jobs that feed us, the houses we live in and comminuties we share could easily change into something that is not longer a happy place.
look clearly and coldly as "A Republician NO MORE," has in his post and make the right decision for your and all our families. save them tougher times and worse.
For what its worth I believe that person to be Obama.
Time will tell.