Election Night Watch Guide: How Long Can McCain Hang On?

Technically, we won’t know who the next president will be until one of the candidates breaks the 270 electoral vote mark on Tuesday night. (Well, very technically, we won’t know until early January, after the Electoral College has met and its votes are tabulated in during joint session of Congress.)

Practically speaking, though, a definitive answer could come relative early on Election Night. Given the number of red states that are in play – and the lack of competitive blue states – John McCain will be clinging to life from the moment the first polls close.

Look at it this way: Barack Obama is the clear leader in every state that John Kerry won in 2004; together these would give him 252 of the 270 electoral votes he needs to win. Among those Kerry states, McCain is really only targeting two: Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, and in both he still trails badly as the campaign is ending. Plus, a few Bush states – most notably Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada – already seem all but lost for McCain; add those three to the Kerry states and Obama would be at 269 electoral votes.

Every other competitive state on the map – Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Virginia, and so on – was won by George W. Bush in 2004.

So McCain will begin Election Night with a nonexistent margin for error; pretty much any slip up will eliminate his already vanishingly small chances of securing 270 electoral votes. And the first wave of poll closings offers plenty of opportunities for McCain slip-ups.

Start with Virginia, a Bush state where Obama has opened a consistent polling lead over the last month. A week ago, his margin was close to ten points, but it seems to have shrunk as Election Day has neared. Still, he’s in position to become the first Democrat since L.B.J. to carry the state. If he does, then McCain will not be able to win the election without picking off a sizable Kerry state.

Indiana, Georgia and Kentucky, red states all, also close at 7:00. While Kentucky seems safely within McCain’s grasp, Obama has aggressively targeted Indiana and made a late push in Georgia. The final polls in both states show him trailing slightly. Anything but quick and decisive wins in these states will be bad news for McCain. As with Virginia, if he loses either one then he won’t be able to win the election without flipping a Kerry state. And if he loses one of these in combination with Virginia, then he’ll need more than one Kerry state. Plus, trouble in Georgia and Indiana would suggest a broader national tide against McCain.

By 7:30, numbers will begin trickling in from North Carolina and Ohio – two more red states that McCain must win, and where he trails slightly in the final pre-election polls. Again, an early win – or clear lead – for Obama in either one of these states would nearly kill off McCain.

At 8:00, the polls will close in Pennsylvania, where the results could seal McCain’s fate. This is the only sizable Kerry state that McCain has targeted, and even though he’s drawn closer in the final days of the campaign, he still trails by about 7 points. It’s impossible to overstate the importance of Pennsylvania to McCain’s victory hopes: Without the state’s 20 electoral votes, he would have to win every single toss-up state on the map. Otherwise, Obama – with his 252 built-in Kerry votes, along with Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada – would need to flip just one Bush state of any size to claim the election.

If Pennsylvania is called early, McCain will be on life support. And if Virginia or Georgia or Indiana or North Carolina or any other early-closing red state (like Florida and Missouri, which also close at 8:00) is called for Obama along with Pennsylvania, then McCain’s campaign will end on the spot; there would be no plausible scenario for him to reach 270 electoral votes. The networks, as noted, will be cautious in calling states; but the polls suggest that Pennsylvania and Virginia (in particular) could produce solid margins for Obama. They could very well be called by 9:00. If that happens, you might as well start calling Obama president-elect.

New Hampshire also closes at 8:00. The McCain campaign has made noise about pulling off an upset in the state, but polls strongly favor Obama here. A relatively quick call for Obama is likely. But since the state only has four electoral votes, it’s far more important for McCain to pull off a win in Pennsylvania. There are some (remote) scenarios in which a New Hampshire win could make the difference for McCain, but he can afford a loss here far more than he can in Pennsylvania.

The best case for McCain in the first hours of Election Night, then, would look something like this: Be declared the winner early in Indiana, Georgia and Missouri; lead in the early totals from Virginia, North Carolina and Florida; and force too-close-to-call races in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire (but especially Pennsylvania). If he can do all of this, then McCain will have survived the first wave of poll closings. Anything less, though, and there won’t be much suspense for the rest of the night.

If McCain is somehow hanging in there at 9:00, then the action will shift to Colorado, a red state worth nine electoral votes where Obama has led consistently. McCain would only be able to survive a loss here if (a) he wins Pennsylvania or (b) he loses Pennsylvania but wins in every aforementioned battleground state, plus every other battleground that closes after Colorado. As with Virginia, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, the trajectory of pre-election polling suggests and early call for Obama is very possible in Colorado.

There are other competitive red states that McCain must hold on to as well. Late polling in Arizona and Louisiana has been unexpectedly close. Votes will be counted in these states starting at 9:00, the same time that polls close in North Dakota, where Obama has also been competitive. (Nebraska, which awards three of its electoral votes by congressional district, also closes at 9; Obama has no chance at capturing the state, but one district is in play.) At 10:00, Montana will begin reporting; one of the final pre-election polls there has Obama leading by a point.

If we reach the late night hours without a winner, it will mean that just about every single break has gone McCain’s way.

Basically, it comes down to this: If McCain wins Pennsylvania, then he can afford no more than two losses in the following states: Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Colorado, Arizona, Louisiana, North Dakota, Montana. And if he loses Pennsylvania, then a loss in any one of those states will extinguish his chances.

That’s what McCain is left with as Election Day arrives.