Silver's Spread and the Connor-Parker-Tingling Cliffhangers

In at least one of today's competitive local primaries, according to some of my favorite prognosticators, the writing is on the wall: Sheldon Silver will be re-elected. None of the people I’ve spoken with have predicted either of his challengers--Paul Newell or Luke Henry--could unseat him, even though Newell has won a fair amount of support and numerous newspaper endorsements.

Silver's job in this case, and perhaps one reason we've been treated to the sight of him campaigning sort-of actively, is to manage expectations.

Yesterday, Fred Dicker quoted an unnamed activist saying, “If Shelly wins with under 50 percent he’s a political dead man.” (Which the New York Post kind of thinks he is already.)

In an email, consultant Joe Mercurio predicted Silver will win with more than 65 percent of the vote. “I think it could go as high as 70%,” he wrote.

George Fontas, a former City Council staffer and smart political guy, put it closer to 75 percent.

Among the tough-to-call races are incumbent Marty Connor versus Dan Squadron for State Senate, and the contest between Milton Tingling, Nora Anderson and John Reddy for Manhattan Surrogate's Court Judge.

Other races to watch are the Congressional primaries on Staten Island, although it's likely that the party-backed candidates--Democrat Mike McMahon and Republican Bob Straniere--will go on to the general election to replace Vito Fossella. In Brooklyn, Real World guy Kevin Powell has mounted a vocal challenge to Congressman Ed Towns. And elsewhere in Brooklyn, both Simcha Felder and Kendall Stewart are challenging incumbent State Senator Kevin Parker.

Predictions? Send them (with spread), please, to apaybarah [at] observer.com or stick them in the comments section.