What are the Hottest Congressional Races in NY, NJ, and CT?

The decision of Congressional Quarterly, one of several insider publications that tracks the competitiveness of House and Senate races, to change its designation of the contest for Vito Fossella’s 13th District seat from toss-up to "Democrat favored" is causing some discussion today.

The move is understandable given the awful predicament in which the district’s Republicans find themselves. But it’s a potentially significant milestone in light of the district’s long loyalty to the G.O.P. and its status as the last New York City-based district in which Republicans can even compete at the congressional level.

It raises the question: What other districts in this area might change partisan hands this fall?

CQ lists nine other House races in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as either toss-ups or leaning toward one party or the other. (Another four, including the 13th District, are classified as "Democrat favored" or "Republican favored.")

As I look at the list of potential battlegrounds, I’m not sure I agree with all of CQ’s classifications. But I don’t know all of these districts that well. My armchair analysis is below – any other thoughts out there?

CQ’s toss-up’s:

NY-25 (Republican Jim Walsh is retiring): I think this is a lot better than a toss-up for Democrats. John Kerry carried the district in 2004 and Dan Maffei, a former Capitol Hill press secretary, came within two points of ousting Walsh in ’06 – apparently close enough to scare Walsh into retirement this time around. Maffei is running again, has a lot more money this time, and has a strong wind at his back, thanks to the national climate. Republican Dale Sweetland is a credible candidate, but I see this as an uphill climb for him.

NJ-7 (Republican Mike Ferguson retiring): I see this as more competitive than NY-25, but still a better bet for the Democrats than for the G.O.P. The Democratic candidate is Linda Stender, an assemblywoman who came much closer than expected (two points) in her ’06 challenge to Ferguson. She’s back this year and is now one of the best-funded candidates in the country. Her opponent is a genuine moderate Republican, state Senator Leonard Lance. But Lance is known more to political insiders than to the masses, particularly in the populous eastern part of the district, and he’s not a very good fundraiser. I’m not sure the national G.O.P., which doesn’t have much money to begin with, will pour much into this race, either.

CQ’s ‘Leans Democrat’ races:

NY-20: CQ’s designation is probably about right, although I’d say it’s too charitable to the Democrats if anything. Freshman Kirsten Gillibrand has positioned herself well for her re-election campaign and has amassed a considerable bankroll. But this is still a G.O.P.-friendly district, one that Bush carried by 8 points in 2004. And her likely challenger, Sandy Treadwell, has shown he can raise real money. The national partisan climate works in Gillibrand’s favor. This race may lean to her, but only slightly.

NY-19: I’d agree with CQ’s take. Democrat John Hall, in theory, should be vulnerable, since his district is about as Republican-friendly as Gillibrand’s is. But Hall got lucky and has not drawn nearly as strong a challenger in Kieran Lalor.

CT-5: I think this is much safer for the Democrats than CQ does. The 5th District is designed to be the most competitive in Connecticut, but is still clearly favors Democrats. Freshman Rep. Chris Murphy won the seat in 2004 with a surprisingly easy victory over Nancy Johnson, who was practically an institution in state politics. State Senator Dave Cappiello is a credible challenger to Murphy, but hardly seems a threat to improve significantly on Johnson’s ’06 performance – especially in light of the anti-republican climate.

CQ’s ‘Leans Republican’ races:

NY-29: I think I’d call this a toss-up. The district itself seems solidly Republican – Bush crushed Kerry by 14 points here – and I assume that’s why CQ has given Kuhl the benefit of the doubt, especially since this is a presidential year. But Kuhl only won by two points in ’06 against Democrat Eric Massa, who’s running again this year. The climate is just as bad this time around and Massa should be better funded. If Kuhl survives, it’ll be on the strength of John McCain’s coattails in the district.

NY-26 (Republican Tom Reynolds retiring): Like NY-29, this one favors the Republicans on paper. But the national climate nearly knocked Reynolds out in ’06, so the Democrats should be just as competitive here this year. It’s unclear who the Democratic candidate will be, but I’d probably give a slight edge to Republican Chris Lee no matter what, simply on the strength of the district’s partisan leanings.

CT-4: I’ve fallen for this trap before. By every logical standard, this should be a Democratic seat, and I’ve written off Chris Shays, the longtime Republican incumbent, several times – most recently in 2006, when his support for the Iraq war, Republican label, and the Democratic tilt of the district were supposed to be too much for him to overcome. Instead, Shays won by four points, leaving him as the lone Republican among New England’s 22 members of Congress. It should be another brutal year for the G.O.P. and Shays has another strong challenger in Jim Himes, a former Goldman Sachs executive, but I’ve learned not to read too much into any of this. If anything, I’d say this should be ‘Safe Republican,’ just because Shays seems like the Rasputin of congressional politics.