Poll: McCain Surges, Giuliani Plummets in Florida

John McCain has not only usurped Rudy Giuliani as the national Republican front-runner, but also has risen through the polls in the former mayor's "firewall" state. Florida, where Giuliani until recently held a commanding lead, is now a four-way statistical tie between McCain, Giuliani, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney, according to a Quinnipiac poll released this morning,

Note, however, that McCain's support in the state is less committed to him--they expressed a greater likelihood of changing their minds before the primary--than the supporters of any other top candidate.

Among Democrats, who aren't competing in the state because it sends no delegates this year, Hilllary Clinton maintains a significant lead of very committed support.

Here's the release:

FOUR-WAY GOP HORSE RACE AMONG FLORIDA LIKELY VOTERS,
QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;
CLINTON LEADS BY 21 POINTS AMONG DEMOCRATS

Four candidates are running neck and neck in the Florida Republican presidential primary, while New York Sen. Hillary Clinton retains a 52 – 31 percent lead over Illinois Sen. Barrack Obama in the Democratic “beauty contest,” according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released today.
Arizona Sen. John McCain has 22 percent of Republican likely primary voters, with former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani at 20 percent, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 19 percent each, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has 7 percent, with Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 5 percent.
Sen. McCain shows the largest movement since Quinnipiac University’s December 20 likely voter survey, picking up 9 percentage points from his fourth-place 13 percent showing. Giuliani has lost 8 percentage points from his then first place 28 percent in the December survey.
Despite her loss in the Iowa caucuses and narrow New Hampshire victory, Sen. Clinton's 43 – 19 percent December 20 lead over Sen. Obama is down only three points. Former Sen. John Edwards is the big loser, getting 9 percent compared 19 percent showing in December.
“The Republican race is a dead heat with all four major contenders within three points for first place. What happens in the coming days in the Michigan and South Carolina primaries will likely have major effect on which of the four wins Florida,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
-more-

Quinnipiac University Poll/January 14, 2008—page 2
“These numbers can’t be good news for Mayor Giuliani who has staked his entire campaign on winning Florida and whose lead has evaporated. Giuliani is showing the negative effects of poor finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, while McCain’s jump is not unexpected given his New Hampshire victory,” Brown added.
“Sen. Clinton, despite her third-place finish in Iowa and narrow win in New Hampshire, retains a very large lead in the Democratic race. She leads Obama 56 – 30 percent among women.”
Sen. Clinton’s lead looks even more formidable when voter preferences are analyzed based on the likelihood they will change their minds. While 75 percent of Clinton voters say they are unlikely to change their minds, only 61 percent of Obama voters feel that way.
McCain’s very narrow lead appears even flimsier when similarly examined. Only 42 percent of his voters say they are unlikely to change their minds, a smaller number than any of his three main rivals.
“Although McCain has the momentum, he is a long way from having closed the sale. Conversely, those voters still with Giuliani are the most committed as a group to any of the four leaders,” said Brown.
Because Florida scheduled its January 29 primary outside the window allowed by the Republican and Democratic National Committee rules, the Democratic primary will award no delegates; while the GOP haul will be half its normal allotment.
From January 9 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 421 Florida likely Democratic primary voters, and 419 likely Republican primary voters, each with a margin of error of 4.8 percent.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Florida, Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being
held today, and the candidates were Clinton, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, Obama, or Richardson? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, Obama, or Richardson? *This table includes Leaners.

LIKELY DEOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTRES
Tot Men Wom

Clinton 52% 45% 56%
Edwards 9 11 8
Gravel 1 1 -
Kucinich 1 1 1
Obama 31 33 30
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 4 -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - -
DK/NA 5 4 5

TREND: (Likely Dem Primary Voters) If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, and Barack Obama, for whom would you vote? na = not asked

LIKELY DEOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTRES
Jan 14 Dec 20
2008 2007

Clinton 52 43
Edwards 9 19
Gravel 1 -
Kucinich 1 1
Obama 31 21
Biden na 3
Dodd na 2
Richardson na 2
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1
DK/NA 5 9

1a. (If express choice in primary) How likely is it that you could change your mind?
Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at all?

LIKELY DEOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTRES...............
CAND CHOICE IN PRIMARY
Tot Men Wom Clinton Obama

Very likely 5% 6% 4% 5% 4%
Smwht likely 26 26 26 19 35
Not too likely 19 19 18 20 19
Not likely at all 50 47 51 55 42
DK/NA 1 2 - 1 -

TREND: (If express choice in Democratic Primary) How likely is it that you could
change your mind? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at
all?

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
Jan 14 Dec 20
2008 2007

Very likely 5 9
Smwht likely 26 34
Not too likely 19 21
Not likely at all 50 36
DK/NA 1 -

2. (If registered Republican) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were
being held today and the candidates were Giuliani, Huckabee, Hunter, McCain,
Paul, Romney, or Thompson for whom would you vote? (If undecided q2) As of today,
do you lean more toward Giuliani, Huckabee, Hunter, McCain, Paul, Romney,
or Thompson? *This table includes Leaners.

LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
WtBrnAgn
Tot Men Wom Evangls

Giuliani 20% 20% 19% 11%
Huckabee 19 17 21 32
Hunter 1 2 - 1
McCain 22 18 25 22
Paul 5 8 3 3
Romney 19 17 21 16
Thompson 7 11 3 7
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - -
DK/NA 7 7 8 6

TREND: (Likely Rep Primary Voters) If the 2008 Republican primary for President
were being held today, and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee,
Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson, for whom
would you vote? na = not asked

LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
Jan 14 Dec 20
2008 2007

Giuliani 20 28
Huckabee 19 21
Hunter 1 1
McCain 22 13
Paul 5 2
Romney 19 20
Thompson 7 8
Tancredo na -
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - -
DK/NA 7 6

2a. (If express choice in primary) How likely is it that you could change your
mind? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at all?

LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
WtBrnAgn
Tot Men Wom Evangls

Very likely 7% 8% 6% 9%
Smwht likely 39 39 40 41
Not too likely 18 18 18 19
Not likely at all 35 35 35 30
DK/NA - - 1 1

CANDIDATE CHOICE IN PRIMARY ...
Giulian Hucka McCain Romney

Very likely 7% 6% 13% 5%
Smwht likely 34 37 44 43
Not too likely 17 25 16 22
Not likely at all 42 31 26 30
DK/NA - 1 1 -

TREND: (If express choice in Republican Primary) How likely is it that you could
change your mind? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, not likely at
all?

LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTER
Jan 14 Dec 20
2008 2007

Very likely 7 12
Smwht likely 39 45
Not too likely 18 17
Not likely at all 35 23
DK/NA - 3