Puerto Rico Primary Looms Smaller
It’s a little remarkable in the first place that the matter of turnout by the late-voting Puerto Rico Democrats should be a topic of discussion at all. But with the expectation that Hillary Clinton will post a resounding win there, possibly erasing Barack Obama's overall popular-vote lead under certain circumstances (i.e., counting Florida and/or Michigan), Puerto Rico has been a crucial component of any argument that the Democratic contest is still undecided.
But the one million figure is based on the astronomical turnout that marks some Puerto Rican elections that deal with the fraught issue of that island's status, and as Alvarez-Rivera told me, that sort of intensity probably won't spill over to a presidential primary. He suggested the real number would be around 600,000.
Yesterday he wrote back with news that reinforces his forecast: a report that Puerto Rico's Democratic Party has asked the Commonwealth Elections Commission to cut the number of polling places by 1,000, apparently due to a failure to find poll workers.
Alvarez-Rivera's analysis:
Now, I can tell you that the only time in recent memory there have been problems recruiting election workers was for the 2005 referendum [onstatehoodwhether to switch to a unicameral legislature], and those problems were widely perceived as being symptomatic of voters' lack of interest in the event – which turned out to be the case, as less than 600,000 voters took part in the referendum. With that in mind, the fact that an article like this has been published *at all* is in my view indicative that the Commission fears the primary could turn into a huge fiasco, and they're engaging in a PR exercise to shift blame away from them: in fact, the article essentially blames the Democratic Party and specifically its commissioner for the ongoing problems.
Personally, I'm not terribly surprised about these problems. At this juncture, Sen. Obama's nomination appears to be all but certain, and the primary is increasingly perceived as an irrelevancy - albeit a very costly one, to the tune of five million dollars. However, the Puerto Rico Democratic Party chairman is on Sen. Clinton's camp, and it's quite evident he wants the primary to go on nonetheless - he's even talking about one (or more) upcoming visit(s) by Sen. Clinton herself, evidently to boost voter turnout. That said, I don't know if the decision to go ahead with the primary is his idea or part of Hillary Clinton's strategy to hang on to the bitter end.
UPDATE: The corrected mistake in brackets is mine, not Manuel's.
- Poll
- Obama (D)
- McCain(R)
- Spread
- RCP Average
- 46.4
- 41.6
- Obama +4.8
- Candidate
- Favorable
- Unfavorable
- Spread
- Obama
- 55.7
- 32.7
- +23.0
- McCain
- 52.4
- 34.7
- +17.7
.
Puerto Rico Primary doesn't count --- it is meaningless.
The nomination has been WON BY OBAMA.
Hillary will not leave the stage until all the lights are turned out.
POOR HILLARY --- PATHETIC.
Steve: Its a good thing that the Puerto Rican voters will never read this article. This is obviously an attempt to suppress the expected record Puerto Rican voter turnout and the almost certain landslide victory for Hillary Clinton. Hillary will almost certainly surpass Obama in the popular vote even without Florida and Michigan thanks to the voters of Puerto Rico.
Popular vote does not determine who gets the nomination.
The wild attempts by Hillary Clinton and her supporters to constantly move goal posts and change the rules in the middle of the game mean nothing.
She has lost.
Even with MI, FL and even _if_ she 'wins' Puerto Rico, she still will not win the nomination. All she is doing is to damage herself now, and the Democratic Party.
With the Democratic party rules, the popular vote doesn't count, just like Michigan and Florida was not supposed to count. Remember they all signed a pledge. Delegates count, and BO has a whole lot more of those than HRC. Remember, in a football game, total yards dont't win you the game, just the actual final score.
Steve: You have your facts all wrong about Puerto Rican voter turnout. In the 2004 general election there were 2,440,131 registered voters and 1,994,269 cast a vote for a total turnout of 81%. The figures you are referring to were from the referendum on statehood. In the general elections the turnout is much higher. Hillary will easily surpass Obama in the popular vote without Florida or Michigan thanks to Puerto Rico. As far as the delegates are concerned neither Obama or Clinton will have the necessary elected (not super delegates) before the convention. Steve, the nomination is going to be decided on the floor of the convention.
Nope!
Wrong again...
Check your facts...
The fact that we're talking about a territory that doesn't even vote in the general election is pitiful...
Hillary has all of you thinking that any and everything she says is true and important...
I guarantee she will pledge to make Puerto Rico a state in 5-4-3-2-1...
Listen up--here it comes!
You can talk about and pledge ANYTHING when you know it will NEVER happen and you don't have to be accountable for it...
Talking about APPEASERS!
It ceases to amaze me at what lengths the Obamabots will go to supress Hillary's votes...
Let me remind the Obama mental midgets that there is absouletly nothing in the democratic nominating process that suggests that after all the contests are finished and all the PLEDGED delegates have been counted--IF no one gets 2026 then it will be up to the SUPERDELEGATES to make the decision on who the nominee should be. Stop trying to change the rules....
That's the point-- since Obama will be short of the majic number-- you can not tell the superdelegates how or in what manner they should cast their vote-- it isn't in the rules-- you can suggest to the supers that they should vote for the person who collected the most PLEDGED delegates (why support someone who is bearly getting to the finishline)-- but it's just a suggetsion-- Clinton can make a better argument that they should throw their support behind her because she has won the popular vote (if this happens vis a vis Puerto rico) in fact in my opinion that's a stronger argument than the pledged delegate one-- since by doing as Obama suggests will just supperss clinton's vote. There are many other reasons why if Clinton wins the popular vote she should get the nomination-- she has finished stronger-- she is clearly more eletable-- she is the stronger candidate--Obama is too young and his support is softer than Clinton-- just look at the exit polls if you don't believe me-- more Clinton supports will likely jump ship than Obama's-- and then there is always Michigan and Florida-- two states that the dems can't afford to lose in november-- which candidate has a better chance of winning them in the fall? The one who won both states and keeps trying to have their vote counted or the one who continues to disenfranchise voters in those two states?
It's too obvious-- what the answer to that question is.
One other thing-- don't bet against history-- the Obamabots say that they will bring other traditional republican states to the democratic column in the fall-- don't bet on it-- from Carl Rove's electoral maps-- Clinton runs better in the fall against McCain and actually has an easier path to the nomination-- Obama's is simply more difficult. I think he will lose a lot of rural white church beleieving democrates and that will cause him and the dems a big problem in the fall.
Just a few questions for Dennis. If Hillary is the stronger candidate then explain the following:
1. Why did she start out the primary season as the "inevitable choice" yet ended up losing practically half of the contests?
2. Why did she get 3rd place behind Obama and Edwards in Iowa?
3. Why did her very big lead with superdelegates disappear?
4. Why do 60% of americans think that she is dishonnest and untrustworthy? http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/15/AR200804...
5. Why is her campain in debt?
6. Why is she just now trying to change rules she has agreed to and never challenged when she was leading?
7. Why do most polls show Obama doing better against McCain in November? http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html
Think about it and try to see if you have your facts straight.
Washington DC had a primary but they are unable to vote for president. The Obamaites are not saying that the DC primary should not count. Why is it that African American votes in DC should count when they voted for Obama but American Citizen Puerto Ricans votes should not be counted because they will vote for Hillary. That sounds like discrimination.
Most puertorrican people do not want to participate in this democratic primary because we know by now, Barak Obama IS the candidate and (hopefully)the next president for the U.S.A.
This primary is decisive of nothing. Most of us are very upset for the money they are going to spent on this futile exercise.
But, of course, we don't forget it was under a CLINTON administration, by the elimination of the 936, that they caused the LOSS of more than 50,000 direct and countless indirect jobs. That primary will be a good moment for the revenge!!!
Hillary has waxed loud on the electoral vote of states that she claims to have "won," NY, CAL, etc. (as if these would go GOP without her.)
PR has NO electoral vote at all !
If she wins big there, watch her change her tone to counting ALL votes -- even totally irrelevant ones.
You are right Puerto Rico has no electoral vote... But we do have the power to choose who will the party's nominee; and that person will be Obama :)
Hillary Clinton WILL be the next president of the United States!
Bill Palmer is incorrect. Washington DC has 3 electoral votes in the Presidential general election (granted by the 23rd amendment to the US Constitution).
That being said, I too agree that the PR vote is just as valid as any others. The Obama supporters always bring up the fact that they are winning by the rules set forth prior to the contest (no Michigan and Florida; caucus victories are as important as primary victories) We shall see if they are still winning by these rules in the popular vote after June 1.
At that point, let the superdelegates decide the outcome however they see fit (also well within the present rules).
After watching Recount on HBO sunday, it struck me that the Obama camp is pulling a strategy right from Bush 2000. Declare victory before its over and see if anyone objects.
What's sure, the Obama supporters are not respectful of the significance of these last primaries.
I wish the Obama supporters would have a little bit more courtesy, towards those who are supporting Clinton. If Clinton supporters do not vote for Obama in the general election it is because they have been sooo offended by his supporters and campaign. If we (Democrats) want to win in the Fall, I suggest everyone just lighten up a little bit.
Those who mention that there was a 2005 referendum on statehood with low voter turnout must be smoking something. The last referendum on statehood was held on December 1998 and turnout was around 65%. The 2005 referndum you are talking about was to change Puerto Rico's bicameral legislature into a unicameral legisalture. Most Puerto Rican's couldn't care less about that subject and simply did not vote on that referendum. A poll published today by the second leading newspaper in Puerto Rico shows 37% of Puerto Ricans will definitely vote (about 870,000) and if you add the likely to vote it goes up to 46% (about 1,081,000) I personally feel those estimates are a little high but hey people in Puerto Rico love to vote so you never know if the whole island wakes up this Sunday with an interest in voting.
My dear Brothers and Sisters in the beautiful isle of Puerto Rico, Please vote for Barack Obama in your upcoming primary. I may live in the midwest now, but I grew up in New York City, and as you no-doubt know New York and Puerto Rico have that special something together. I used to live in "The Bronx" and 3 other boroughs. Bill and Hillary Clinton are like squatters up in Harlem...They need to be evicted! Likewise they need to be evicted from your minds, because they have taken up residence there too as squatters. Hillary only wants your votes for her own selfish reasons. She was once a good person (had to be to put up with Bill's B.S.), but she has changed. You can see from all of her lying and Scheming as of late how voracious her and Bill have become. They only want to have that "White House" power again; and as you can plainly see they will obviously do anything to get this power again. You have to admit, they played the race card, the dumb white people (RedNeck)card, any card they could utilize to gain votes. They certainly want to use you too. Don't let them! Do yourself the best favor you can do for yourself and the world at large....Do Not vote for those pandering/race-baiting Clintons....Do vote for the person who is like us and will probaly be in our corner for the next four years and beyond....Please make your vote count for real change....Vote for Barack Obama. He will truly represent........;)p RonE... From The Mid-West
"Hola" a mi Puetro Rica hermanos y hermanas. I only want to say one thing here (as a Hillary supporter). If you believe you vote should count too then vote (and I hope you'll consider Hillary). Either way, don't let push you into believing there IS (to use the CAPS they use) an end to this process and your vote is a "waste of time." Having a "likely nominee" is NOT the same as having an "actual nominee." In the world of politics anything can happen. That's a reality our history teaches us all. Well, I hope you all have a chance to make your vote count. Peace.
Your vote counts! Please vote. Cast your ballot for who you choose, and please be aware of the views of the candidates and what they REALLY stand for, not just what they SAY they stand for.
http://worlddefensereview.com/esman040908.shtml
Your vote counts! Please vote. Cast your ballot for who you choose, and please be aware of the views of the candidates and what they REALLY stand for, not just what they SAY they stand for.
http://worlddefensereview.com/esman040908.shtml
Please consider casting your vote for Hillary Clinton. She will work for the people. The other guy likes to tell us he is different from the rest, but he is inexperienced and rose to the top through his ties to corruption. Thank you for listening.
Obama is winning the Democrat delegate contest due to higher proportions of delegates being awarded to the candidate who wins GOP leaning states, and to the candidate who wins state electoral districts with high minority representation.
This is due to the McGovern, and Jackson overlay rules to the Democrat party rules for apportioning delegates in the primary contests.
But there is a huge difference between the Democrat primary race delegate rules and the national electoral rules for the November contest.
Clinton has won the states needed to win in November, Obama has lost those states.
Obama has won GOP leaning states with small numbers of ultra-liberal contingents of Democrat primary voters.
An example, Obama won Alaska with a net 450 votes, same for many of the other GOP leaning states with caucuses. And of course Obama has been able to count on 90% of the black community vote.
In November, those states election will be won by the GOP nominee.
However, Clinton wins the huge electoral prizes, and the swing states and swing voters, Clinton does better against McCain with the voter who will determine the outcome of the election.
We will see in the next few months if the Democrat party super delegates decide to do the "politically correct" thing and give the nomination to Obama who is certain to lose in November, or ir they are more pragmatic and have grown tired enough of losing that they will go with Clinton.
I urge all Clinton supporters to realize the importance of ignoring the orchastrated
media campaign to force Clinton out of the race.
Ask yourself, does the MSM report the truth? Would they fob off a loser like Obama for the purpose of making sure the weak GOP candidate will win?
Look into who is behind Obama, Brzezinski, Rockefeller, Volcker, the same people who put Carter into office.
You are quite right, Michelle. We all seem to be getting a little overwrought. As an Obama supporter, I welcome an active participation of Puerto Ricans. If Senator Clinto wins this primary, so be it. We all need to take a deep breath and take stock of what we all have in common. Thank you for your post.