Finding Meaning in a Pointless Yankees September

The New York Yankees entered September seven games behind the Boston Red Sox for the wild card spot, and 12.5 games behind division-leading Tampa Bay. The last time the New York Yankees entered September more than the seven games out of a playoff spot was 1992, when the Melido Perez, Andy Stankiewicz Yankees entered September 14 games out of first place.

So for many Yankee fans, a September without meaningful games is more than just an anomaly—many have not experienced it. Still, there are plenty of reasons to follow the Yankees over their final 23 games. The September action may not be relevant for 2008—but it certainly has implications for 2009.

The biggest reason is the imminent return of Joba Chamberlain, who came off the disabled list on Tuesday. Chamberlain dominated over 12 starts, but with such a short time remaining in the season, the Yankees are likely to keep him in the bullpen for the remainder of 2008. But it is important for Chamberlain to merely show that he is healthy—no doubt should exist that he can dominate as a starting pitcher.

Chamberlain’s health goes to the larger question of just what New York’s rotation is likely to be in 2009. While Sidney Ponson, Darrell Rasner and Carl Pavano are almost certainly not part of the 2009 rotation mix, both Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina need to be watched carefully. Mussina has actually improved upon his surprise 3.61 first-half ERA, posting a 3.05 mark since the All Star break. But Andy Pettitte has a 7.41 ERA over his last seven starts, and a similar finish could push his season ERA up over 5.

Do the Yankees take a chance on a fading Pettitte, and bring back Mussina for his age-40 season? The two will largely answer that question over their final five starts apiece. A bonus for fans will be to watch Mussina, who has never won 20 games, go after that milestone. He’s at 17 entering his start Sunday.

Yankee fans should also root for a collapse from the Milwaukee Brewers, who are pushing CC Sabathia, a likely New York free agent target this offseason, very hard. Sabathia is averaging eight innings a start, and has thrown 110 or more pitches (with a high of 130) in five of his 11 starts for the Brewers. He is 31 innings away from his career-high of 241 for the season, and should Milwaukee make the playoffs, he is on pace to greatly surpass that. Sabathia may be better able to handle huge workloads than most other pitchers—or else, the Yankees could sign him to a huge long-term deal just in time for his breakdown.

In the bullpen, the Yankees have had a number of young pitchers step forward with better-than-expected years. But the team needs to determine which of these relievers can become late-game stoppers to help bridge the starting pitchers to Mariano Rivera. Both Jose Veras and Edwar Ramirez have put up above-average years in the bullpen, with ERAs well below 4 and more strikeouts than innings pitched. Better still, both have been effective against both righties and lefties.

But Veras’s ERA rose from 2.87 in the first half to 4.67 in the second half. For Ramirez, the first half ERA was 2.73, the second half ERA 4.76. Since neither pitcher has a huge workload, the Yankees need to determine just how helpful either of the two can be in 2009. Success by either will likely help to lock down the eighth-inning role in 2009.

New York also has numerous questions to answer in their lineup. Jason Giambi had a monster first half. But Giambi seemed to wear down in the second half, and while New York is highly unlikely to pick up his option, the Yankees need to decide if it is worth bringing back this popular player as he turns 38. Of course, if New York doesn’t, the free agent market offers the allure of Mark Teixeira and Adam Dunn.

But an even more interesting question seems to be Robinson Cano, who the team was counting on to continue his seeming march toward stardom. Instead, Cano’s average has now dropped from .342 in 2006 to .306 in 2007 and .269 in 2008. His slugging percentages over that time also dropped from .525 to .488 to .411. If the Yankees are convinced that the 25-year-old Cano is unlikely to return to superstar form, the team could deal him. But a hot September would go a long way toward returning Cano to the team’s good graces, and putting his 2008 more in line with his 2007 stats. Considering that Cano is a career .365/.385/.596 hitter in September/October regular season games, this is not an unlikely event.

So as the Yankees slide closer to playoff elimination, there are still plenty of reasons to enjoy September baseball in the Bronx, even though it appears that the final game at Yankee Stadium will not be a World Series classic, but a standard Sept. 21 game against the Orioles, just prior to the first day of fall.