Taking Obama's California Surge With a Grain of Salt
The trend line looks promising for Barack Obama in California. Two days ago, a Zogby poll gave him a one-point lead in the delegate-rich state. Yesterday, his margin swelled to six points. And this morning, the final round of data has him ahead by a staggering 13 points.
But there are two catches:
1) We saw this same kind of trend in the days before New Hampshire, and—amid predictions of a blowout Obama victory—it reversed itself on primary day.
2) California is has some of the most liberal laws in the country for absentee and mail-in voting. Ballots were mailed out a month ago, and it's estimated that more than half of all votes in the primary will have been cast well before today's primary. The problem for Obama is that mail-in voting began back when Hillary Clinton enjoyed a sizable lead in California polls—around 20 points. If that spread was reflected in the early balloting, even a 13-point win among primary days voters won't be enough for Obama to carry the state.
- Poll
- Obama (D)
- McCain(R)
- Spread
- RCP Average
- 46.4
- 41.6
- Obama +4.8
- Candidate
- Favorable
- Unfavorable
- Spread
- Obama
- 55.7
- 32.7
- +23.0
- McCain
- 52.4
- 34.7
- +17.7
True about the absentee ballots but realize that Obama has a lot of supporters in California who would be even more energized to vote for him after New Hampshire. We don't know anyone who is voting for Hillary.
Actually, mail-in votes are accounted for in polling. Also, only Hillary's most committed supporters would vote for her 2-4 weeks out. The undecideds will break for Obama in a big way, as the Zogby poll demonstrates.
Guys make sure you check out the article "The Intoxication of Inspiration" on the blogzine SAVAGE POLITICS (not related to Mike Savage) at www.savagepolitics.com. It is awesome......everyone should read it before voting.
strate up NIGGER / SAND NIGGER we dont need that shit