This Time, Obama Wins the Hillary Voters Too
The losing streak has hit eight for Hillary Clinton, but that's hardly the worst news to come out of Chesapeake Tuesday for the former first lady.
Nor is the fact that she now trails in most every independent delegate count—even the counts that include the non-binding pledges of superdelegates. And nor, for that matter, is the likelihood that her skid will reach double-digits a week from tonight, when Wisconsin and Hawaii vote.
No, the most troubling development for Hillary Clinton is that—for the first time—Barack Obama has demonstrated an ability to eat significantly into her base of support while retaining his, creating the possibility that the Democratic race is shifting decisively in his favor and that it is no longer a clash between opposing and immovable coalitions.
Before tonight, Democratic primary voters had seemed to divide themselves along economic, gender, geographic, ethnic and age lines. Obama monopolized the black vote, scored much better among white men than white women and attracted voters who were younger, more affluent, more educated and more politically independent. Clinton's coalition was comprised of women, older voters, Hispanics and lower-income voters.
With those voting habits seemingly locked in, the Democratic race appeared destined for a split verdict in the primary season, with both candidates winning about the same number of delegates and popular votes and with the 800 or so superdelegates then being empowered to break the tie.
That outcome may still come to pass, but there are clues in tonight's results that suggest something very different may be happening.
In Virginia and Maryland (no exit polls were conducted in the District of Columbia), Obama performed very well with his usual constituencies, even boosting his share of the black vote (to 90 percent in Virginia).
But he also won—overwhelmingly—lower-income and less-educated voters, who before tonight have formed the backbone of Clinton's coalition. Among white men, Obama beat Hillary 55 to 43 percent in Virginia. On Super Tuesday, white men were evenly split. Obama also won Hispanic voters in Virginia and Maryland, a group that until now has lopsidedly backed Clinton—that was the main reason for her Nevada victory last month. In Maryland, Obama narrowly won among voters over 65 years old and also carried white Catholic voters, two more typically pro-Clinton constituencies.
Poaching Clinton's base translated into two of Obama's most dominating performances in primary states. In Maryland, where he'd been expected to win by somewhere between 15 and 20 points, his margin was 15 with about 15 percent of precincts reporting, and likely to climb higher. And in Virginia, where Clinton's campaign had held faint hopes of an upset victory, his margin was an astounding 29 points with nearly every vote tabulated. (He also won D.C. by more than 50 points, although a blowout Obama win there had always been expected.)
The Clinton campaign is facing must-win primaries and Texas and Ohio on March 4, states where they still hold sizable leads in polls. But with tonight's bad news, and the likelihood of more to come next Tuesday, Clinton's support may begin to erode—something that apparently happened in Virginia and Maryland in the wake of Obama's victories over the weekend.
For the first time since his Iowa triumph, Obama now has his opponent on the ropes. If he can win as he is expected to do next week and then steal Ohio and Texas from her in three weeks, the nomination will be his. Right now, he trails in the polls in those two big states, where Clinton's coalition is stronger than his. But what he proved tonight is that he has the ability to win over big chunks of Clinton's coalition. If he can do the same thing again on March 4, that may be the end of it.
- Poll
- Obama (D)
- McCain(R)
- Spread
- RCP Average
- 46.4
- 41.6
- Obama +4.8
- Candidate
- Favorable
- Unfavorable
- Spread
- Obama
- 55.7
- 32.7
- +23.0
- McCain
- 52.4
- 34.7
- +17.7
WI and HI on deck! Hillary is not Bill. Fusing herself with him and not running on her own, has cost her. It didn't have to be that way. She made the decision(s). What happened to the $100mil? Show us the DONOR RECORDS, tax returns, etc. Barack beat Hillary by two to one. The Nation has been attacked. Our schools are dysfunctional. Our infrastructure is crumbling. New Orleans and the Gulf Coast need to be rebuilt...NOW. Hillary ran as the ESTABLISHMENT CANDIDATE and thought she would coast. This is a different era. SHE misjudged. We want change. We want to be part of making it. We should have been more vigilent in 2000 and 2004. Now we are. That is our right and obligation. The world needs us to do our job vetting because they do not want 100 YEARS OF WAR. Turn the page.
It's OK, Hillary still wins women between the ages of 65-72 and Latinos between the ages of 51-57.
GO TEAM HILLARY! Obama WON'T have momentum coming out of this route!!
U GO GURL!!!!
Hillary didn't even THANK voters who braved the snow and ice to vote for her yesterday during her speech. Gates fell and broke his shoulder...but not a word of recognition from the departing Hillary! Graceless. Women, may THAT is why she is disliked. Our mothers taught us all to say THANK YOU. But, the Clintons don't know the meaning of the word. She had time to fly to Florida to celebrate a "faux" victory. Only victories and deals/pardons for special interests get the attention of the Clintons.
Obama - When the average american hears his name they think "You Bomber." If he is the candidate in the general election, the Republicans will have people worked into a frenzy, thinking he is a terrorist cell.
Yeah, he gives a good speech, but where's the beef? Obama is an average inner-city politican who gives a great speech -- no more, no less.
Hillary - The most hated woman in the United States? Yes! Let's run her! We should make sure that we offset all the gains the Bush administration handed the Democratic Party in one swooping nomination. Yeah, many Republicans aren't happy with McCain, but they sure will come together to beat Hillary. You will see record Republican turnout if she is the candidate.
Overall, come on....Seriously? This is the best the entire Democratic Party could offer? Really?
Where is Al Gore? Bring Al Gore back!
David Wilhelm, former head of the 1992 Clinton Campaign and former head of the DNC will endorse Barack Obama today! He is a so-called superdelegate! Here we go!
That's right!!!
OBAMA IS THE MAN! HILLARY HAS NO CLASS. THE CLINTONS ONLY THINK OF THEMSELVES. I USED TO LIKE THEM, BUT I AM JOINING THE OBAMA TRAIN.HE IS A WINNER! I LIKE WINNERS NOT SORE LOOSERS LIKE HILLARY. SHE CAN'T EVEN CONGRATULATE HER OPONENT. GO OBAMA! WHITE PEOPLE FOR OBAMA.
Politics as Transcendence - Gary Hart - HuffingtonPost.com
Posted February 13, 2008 | 02:35 PM (EST)
Only once in a very long time does politics become more than politics, that is something more than partisan struggle, vote bartering, or arena of ambition. In ordinary times, ordinary political leaders suffice, more or less.
But on rare occasion, old arrangements and conventional wisdom come unstuck. This happens in periods of rapid if not revolutionary change. We find ourselves now in one of those periods. The forces of globalization, information, eroding sovereignties, and transformation of war ensure that traditional leaders and conventional politics can only muddle through at best and fail badly at worst.
But periods of upheaval also offer opportunities, opportunities to change our methods, our ideas, and our leaders. The rare leader capable of transforming threat to opportunity is one who welcomes transformation and sees it as a chance to abandon tradition and convention, to transcend that which is stale, unprofitable, and ineffective.
Periods of transformation require experimentation, innovation, and daring. America is a nation much more conservative than it thinks itself to be. Thus, its default position is to resist a forward leap even while applauding itself for its creativity. Al Capone said it best: "We don't want no trouble." But transformation is trouble in the best sense of the word, trouble that causes us to adapt to new conditions and circumstances and create new ways of governing.
Through some miracle of timing, luck, and good fortune Barack Obama has seized the moment. His mantra of "change" has been largely co-opted by lesser figures. He is in fact an agent of transformation. He is not operating on the same plane as ordinary politicians, and this makes him seem elusive to the conventional press and the traditional politicians. His instinct for the moment and the times is orders of magnitude more powerful than the experience claimed by others. Experience in the old ways is irrelevant experience.
In an age of great transformation, experience of the past is worthless because it is a barrier to the breakthrough gesture, the instant response in crisis, the instinctive bold decision in the face of totally new circumstances.
Some see Barack Obama as the long awaited champion finally come to slay the awful dragon of race. And they are right. Some see him as a new start for the Democratic Party and national politics. And they are right. Some see him as the walking embodiment of internationalism, ready to restore an honorable and respected place for America in the world. And they are right.
I see Barack Obama as a leader for this transcendent moment, the agent of transformation in an age of revolution, as a figure uniquely qualified to open the door to the 21st century and to convert threat to great new opportunity.
Hillary may be an insider but she knows how to get Congress
on board with special interests, she knows how to deal with
special interests, and has laid out an excellent Health Plan. She is a tough strong American who will stand up
for America. Her husband's presidency had a strong economy,
trillion dollar surplus, biggest job growth and friends
around the world.
We need HILLARY!
I totally agree with renatam. That is my feeling exactly. There are lots of people who worry about shaking the status quo by getting an outsider into the white house, but, that is what we want. We don't want to give the Clinton a 3rd term. Hillary have been in the white house and have been a copresident with her husband during his time there. Now he will be a copresident during her time there. I really don't see the difference. When you are married, you carry the baggage together. I am for change and if the people have a say in it then like what Clinton is saying now, Yes we will .... have that change. And that means no more Clintons in the white house... unless the Clinton is not related to her and her husband.
OBAMA FOR GOD AND CONSTITUTION
The loyalties of the finest Ronald Reagan Conservatives are not for sale to Neo-Cons/Neo-Libs at any price. It is far better to be defeated now by a John Kennedy Liberal, Obama, than to be defeated by the Podhoretz Neo-Cons supporting McCain, who have corrupted the Republican Party; and Obama's defeat of Hillary will be a Republican victory over the Leiberman Neo-Libs, who have so thoroughly corrupted the Democratic Party.
In subsequent elections, more Neo-Cons can be defeated and expelled to restore the integrity of the Republican Party. Then, with both the Democrat and Republican parties finally restored to their traditional liberal and conservative social and economic foundations, the ideologically subversive Neo-Libs/Neo-Cons shall have the choice of either conforming, or again pursuing their sixty year old dream of creating an ideologically subversive Neo-Marxist Party.
The Ron Paul Libertarians are not fighting solely to elect Ron Paul; they are fighting in the Cultural War to restore the traditional cultural allegiance to God and Constitution. Ron Paul is joined by younger leaders who shall heroically carry on the American Reformation, by any Constitutional means necessary, until the Neo-Cons/Neo-Libs have been democratically defeated in the government, the universities, and the news media.