The VP Stakes: If It's Obama Vs. McCain, Who Runs With Them?
Though the Democratic nomination has yet to be decided, Barack Obama and John McCain have begun acting very much as if the general election has already started, exchanging direct criticisms and sizing each other up. And, while neither has talked publicly about it at this early stage, both men are doubtless pondering the running-mate question.
In a matchup with Obama, McCain would face two potentially conflicting imperatives with his choice of a vice presidential candidate.
On the one hand, he badly needs to fire up an apathetic conservative base that even now has not warmed up to his candidacy. For a long time, he’d been assuming that Hillary Clinton—perhaps the most reviled figure among the conservative grass roots—would win the Democratic nomination and accomplish this for him. But if the vastly less polarizing Obama is his opponent, McCain may find his VP choice to be his best remaining means of mobilizing the G.O.P.’s base.
But picking a candidate with well-established conservative bona fides may not help McCain with his other imperative: the excitement factor. Obama’s candidacy has history-making potential, and the age difference between him and his presumptive general election opponent—25 years—would be the largest in history. The 72-year-old McCain would benefit from picking a younger, less conventional running mate who can appeal to the non-G.O.P. base voters who are instinctively attracted to Obama’s personality and to the future-versus-past theme of his campaign.
Meanwhile, conventional wisdom holds that Obama’s main criteria for picking a VP is to find someone with foreign policy heft, since most of Obama’s elected experience came in the Illinois state legislature. This would be particularly true against McCain, who will make Obama’s supposed foreign policy inexperience one of his main lines of attack.
Of course, Obama could thumb his nose at conventional wisdom, and pick a running mate whose foreign policy background—at least in the traditional sense—is just as thin as his, preferring instead to choose a VP who reinforces his emphasis on fresh thinking. Bill Clinton employed this logic in 1992 when he selected Al Gore, a fellow baby boomer who was from a Southern state that bordered Clinton’s Arkansas, when conventional wisdom suggested that he needed a graybeard from up north.
McCain will enjoy one slight advantage in the selection process: Since the G.O.P. convention comes after the Democrats’, he can wait for Obama (or Hillary Clinton) to make his pick before filling out his own ticket.
Here are a few names the candidates ought to consider, assuming, for the sake of this exercise, an Obama-McCain matchup:
Barack Obama
Chuck Hagel: This has the benefit of being both an unconventional, outside-the-box pick and yet a safe one. A conservative Republican on many issues, Hagel is an outcast in the G.O.P. for his outspoken opposition to the foreign policy that his party has embraced under George W. Bush. This has also made him something of a hero to the left and a media favorite. In many ways, Hagel has emerged as the new McCain.
He’s giving up his Senate seat this year and, at 61 years old, is probably through running for office as a Republican. But he’s impeccably qualified for national office, has a commanding presence and grasp of military and national security issues and would vividly illustrate Obama’s declarations that his candidacy represents an effort to unite blue states and red states.
Jim Webb: Webb’s presence on the ticket would have roughly the same effect as Hagel’s, even if Webb is actually a Democrat (although he wasn’t for most of his life). Like Hagel, Webb is a man of conservative instincts who found himself alienated from the G.O.P. because of its embrace of Bush foreign policy. A military man, he has the same commanding presence as Hagel and would also bring ideological diversity to the Democratic ticket (for instance, on gun control). A bonus: He could help in Virginia, a state that will actually be in play this fall.
Joe Biden: Don’t laugh. Biden stuck his foot in his mouth talking about Obama last year, and it’s not at all clear Obama likes him on a personal level. But Biden is a weighty figure on foreign policy issues and a forceful speaker and debater (on points, he won most of the Democratic primary debates). By embracing him, Obama would be sending a signal to well-meaning white voters of a certain generation that he understands if they—like Biden—haven’t fully figured out how to talk about race. I know you don’t mean any harm, Obama would be telling them, and I want you on my team.
Claire McCaskill: A counterintuitive pick, given that she has less foreign policy experience than Obama. But if Obama wants his ticket to serve as a statement that “stale” Washington thinking has no place in his campaign, then he could do worse than to tap a second-year female senator who has made combating wasteful Defense Department spending (a nice response to McCain’s anti-government waste crusade) one of her pet issues and who represents a prime swing state, Missouri. McCaskill might also help Obama mend fences with women who have been devoted to Hillary Clinton in the primaries.
John McCain
Mike Huckabee: Huckabee is doing his level best to prove his usefulness to McCain, gobbling up primary votes from religious conservatives who stubbornly refuse to come around to McCain. Pick me and you can have them all, is Huckabee’s implicit message to McCain. Plus, McCain seems to hold Huckabee in genuinely high regard for the major assist Huckabee provided him in driving Mitt Romney out of the Republican race. Huckabee is a skilled speaker and debater who would probably perform well on the stump and in the VP debate in the fall. The problem: He’s been caricatured (many would say accurately) as a religious extremist and could turn off independent voters whose support McCain absolutely must win in order to defeat Obama.
Kay Bailey Hutchison: She may represent the best realistic balance between McCain’s need to mollify the base and to make a bold statement with his VP pick. Hutchison is not the most conservative member of the Senate, but she’s also far from being a moderate. She has slowly crept to the right on abortion through the years, and after once advertising herself as pro-choice has now adopted views on the subject that could probably pass for pro-life. She would probably be acceptable to most of the right. And her gender would mean that the Republicans would not be running a “white guys” ticket against Obama.
The biggest drawback: She may have some ethical baggage from a 1993 indictment that charged her with misusing Texas state employees to assist with her Senate campaign that year. In early 1994, the prosecutor (Ronnie Earle) decided not to proceed with the case after the judge declined to rule on the admissibility of key evidence.
The best thing she has going for her: If McCain wants to make a splash by picking a woman, he doesn’t have many realistic choices.
Mark Sanford/Tim Pawlenty/Rick Perry: Three somewhat interchangeable conservative Republican governors. Sanford (South Carolina), Pawlenty (Minnesota) and Perry (Texas) all represent safe picks who would do little to inspire the masses and counter the excitement factor of an Obama-led Democratic ticket, but who would sit well with the conservative base that McCain is now scrambling to unify.
Pawlenty, in particular, has had his eye on McCain’s number-two spot for a while. He endorsed the Arizonan last year and has staked out an immigration position in opposition to McCain’s—which could make him more attractive to McCain, since he needs to reach out to conservatives who believe he has promoted “amnesty.”
David Petraeus: This is a very, very long shot. But there has been talk that Petraeus may be moving on from his role as the commander of international forces in Iraq later this year and McCain has been his biggest booster—publicly and behind the scenes in D.C.—since Petraeus took over in Iraq last year. And McCain has made his devotion to the surge and to Petraeus’ Iraq strategy central to his campaign. Petraeus has also been rumored to have political aspirations of his own. Needless to say, this would be a dramatic selection that could compensate for the excitement gap between McCain and an Obama-led Democratic ticket.
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Former VA Gov. Warner would be the best candidate. Moderate to conservative Democratic from a sounthern state. Would be the perfect number two man for Sen. Obama. Although he is looking to run for the open Senate seat, I believe this would be the only position that would prevent him from doing so.
For Obama, how about Gen. Anthony Charles Zinni?
This would nulify critics who erroneously assert Obama lacks the necessary experience in the so-called post 9/11 era on matters of national security.
As far as Claire McCaskill, I think the image of a black man and a white woman on the same tick is like tossing raw meat to the racist elements who still roam the fruited plains of America.
Biden, well he really does have 35 years experience in Washington. Unlike Hillary Clinton's ridiculous and specious claim that she has 35 years experience. Of course, Obama would never be able to get a word in edge-wise if Biden is his veep.
I don't have an opinion of Webb. Some of his voting record I find troubling, so I'm just not sure he would serve an Obama administration.
these are terrible picks for Obama and a poor analysis of his potential VPs.
Hagel? Obama will alienate a huge swath of Democrats with that pick. Hagel may have grown a spine when it comes to foreign policy (read: Iraq War), but he a conservative through and through.
Calling Claire McCaskill (and to an extent Jim Webb) second year senators is really stretching it. It's only February. Also, both Senators won by slim margins (Webb's margin was razor thin).
Biden makes sense but picking another Senator will be a huge mistake. You need a governor to balance the ticket. Obama's weakness is his inexperience. You need a popular governor.
Obama has small girlish hands. I bet Michelle is the top in that relationship.
Another interesting pick for Obama might be Phil Bredesen Tennessee's 2nd term governor. Bredesen has impressed voters with his ability to bring Tennessee into solvency without enacting either an income tax or higher taxes. He is highly regarded by fiscal conservatives. His election and re-election was made possible by strong cross-over voting. Prior to his tenure as former mayor of Nashville he made his fortune in the health care industry successfully owning and operting health maintenance organizations in PA.
His pick would provide great balance to the ticket. A fiscal conservative, social progressive, southern governor with broad appeal to the business sector and members of both parties.
There are two more women I think would be serously considered. For Obama, having Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius as a running mate could accomplish pretty much everything you say McCaskill would but could also help in neutralizing criticism of Obama's lack of executive experience. Being a governor also inherently makes her a Washington outsider which would maintain the whole "change" aspect. She could also put a red state into play and maybe even some of the surrounding states. For McCain, Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska is generally considered a rising star in the Republican Party. She seems to be regarded as a strong conservative, particularly on social issues, which could help him with Huckabee supporters. She is also, obviously, a woman, quite young and a Washington outsider, helping McCain to counter some of the criticism he will face as an old white man who has been in Washington for 25 years.
Obama should pick either Joe Biden or Mark Warner. Biden for his experience in the Senate and he'll be a great hatchet man and do the dirty work for Obama, thus allowing Obama to remain positive. Mark Warner would be a good choice because he could deliver Virginia, a key battleground state.
Obama-Bill Richardson, or possibly Evan Bayh. Mark Warner is also logical. Doesn't McCain have to pick Mitt Romney, as Monica Crowly hinted on last week's McLaughlin Group?
I think that Evan Bayh would be good. He is a centrist, and a former governor. good on foreign policy and young like obama. another one would be kathleen kennedy townsend. a strong woman leader.
"Obama should pick either Joe Biden or Mark Warner."
Warner is immediately disqualified because the Democrats need him desperately to run for the open Virginia senate seat that was held by long-time GOPer, John Warner. Mark Warner is giving the Democrats a very rare chance at picking up a seat long considered a lock for the GOP.
Warner is out for the reason mentioned above, and the fact that there are less than flattering rumors floating around about his personal life, which is supposedly why he never got in the presidential race in the first place.
I think Biden is a passable pick...Richardson, not so much.
Evan Bayh has endorsed Hillary, and from what I hear is favored to be her running mate should she prevail. This doesn't necessarily preclude him from getting the VP nod from Obama, but makes it unlikely.
Despite what people say about the black man, white woman issue, I think either Sebelius or even Chris Gregoire could be solid picks.
Jim Webb is not necesarily a bad pick, but I think they'll want to keep him in the Senate.
Pawlenty would be perfect for McCain. War over bridges.
McCain could thwart Obama with the pick of either Condi Rice,Colin Powell or any Hispanic. He could take some of the `"first and one and only only" novelty away from Barack. It possibly will also put into play those battleground states of California and Florida. Also remember none of the last three elections a Democrat took Tenn in the electoral college. And It was Gore's home state!
I would think Huckabee is McCain's first choice.
I would recommend Huckabee see a plastic surgeon and SOON as he's not aging well. I can't believe Huckabee is only 52-years-old. He looks 62-years-old.
McCain should have plastic surgery, too. I don't know if that's possible with his history of skin cancer, but he needs to take a few years off his face. On second thought, a decade would be nice. Make that a century. This guy is oooooold.
McCain's age will be an issue in the election and it should be an issue. I suppose McCain could deflect his elderly age somewhat by picking a running-mate 99-years-old. By doing that, he would appear to be a youngster. Pop a few zits on camera, and maybe the age issue will go away. Sure! Yeah! Hardly!
Yeah, Evan Bayh would be a good choice for Obama. I agree! I've always liked him and he's very charming.
A long shot might be Harold Ford from Tennessee. Not very likely, but compare Ford's handsome looks to anyone? There's very few men better-looking than Harold Ford. Of course, Obama is good-looking, too. The Democrats will have the Republicans beat in every department: age, brains, competency, and looks.
I do wish Mccain and Huckabee speedy recoveries after their plastic surgery. With soooo much facial work being done, maybe they can get a good deal on liposuction. A two-for-one sale sounds good. The economy is in bad shape, so there's deals out there.
HUCKABEE’S KEY TO REWARD MC-CAIN FOR HIS FAITHFUL SUPPORT AND ENDLESS EFFORTS
FOR HIS FAITHFUL SUPPORT OF CHILD SACRIFICE BY ABORTION, AND FOR HIS ENDLESS EFFORTS DEMONIZING AND MOCKING OF THE EVANGELICALS AND FUNDAMENTALISTS, SHALL HUCKABEE JUSTLY REWARD MC-CAIN WITH THE KEY TO THE GATE OF HEAVEN, OR KEY TO THE GATE OF HELL?
I think that the suggestions of "Obama - Richardson" is very interesting, as Richardson's executive office experience (both as Governor and Secretary of Energy), and international / foreign policy experience (U.N. Ambassador, and negotiator against the North Koreans) would be very strong ... and, as a Hispanic, he would allow the ticket to reach out to the Hispanic voting bloc (although it really is multiple blocs) would negate a lot of the inbred suspicions.
Obama:
Hagel, though retiring, is still a Republican and would look better with McCain than with the Democrats. A terrific man but belongs with McCain. I agree Mark Warner would be a great choice for Obama - exudes gubernatorial experience and competence - would even make the ticket MORE exciting because Mark Warner has his own JFK ambience. I agree Jim Webb would be a real good pick for Obama - giving that national security look that may, unfortuantely be needed until Iraq can ever settle down.
McCain: David Petraeus would seem an exciting choice indeed. Also reassuring would be Colin Powell - There needs to be a restoration of Realism. A mischievous pick is Condi Rice, who digs into Obama/Clintons' uniqueness. McCain could also look exciting with Chuck Hagel behind him. Its a way of saying - Restoration; the Neocons failed and now for something completely different - would tick off his base, but he could excite the public, that's for sure, and it would probably help the country. Petraeus would do this too without ticking off the base. But Romney is not a good choice - incompatible with McCain - has a dubious activities past with Bain Capital, is pro-torture like Cheney. The last thing needed is another Neocon Cheney!
The nod to Richardson does sound good, and Obama's running-mate list is not all that short. Two minority candidates on the Democratic ticket would almost force McCain to choose a minority running-mate. Likewise, a woman on the Democratic ticket would alter the equation, too. I think? McCain would seemingly have to choose a minority running-mate, or a woman running-mate, to have a viable chance to win in November.
I would highly suggest MCain investigate the sexual orientation of the people on his running-mate list. Just asking his potential running-mate questions about sexual orientation will prove fruitless. The percentage of married, closeted, homosexuals in the Republican Party is astounding. It's almost like wall-to-wall married, closeted, homosexuals.
These sexual orientation investigations will be expensive, because private investigators will be paid big bucks. I'm serious about this issue! At this point in time McCain has probably limited the field to one, two, or three people, and I would imagine these sexual orientation investigations are ongoing now. No doubt fundamentalist Christians will be investigated vigorously and to a higher degree than others within the party.
Senator Larry Craig may be able to redeem himself a little within the party. It's possible. I would suggest, too, Republican operatives sit down with Larry Craig, and get his input as to who's hiding in the closet. This guy should know a little information about a few, or many, gay politicians in the Republican Party. Naturally, this conversation would be not be televised, and measures could be taken to avoid leaks.
There's a very high probability of another Republican sexual orientation scandal, and it could very well center around McCain's running-mate. There's just too many married, Republican, closeted homosexuals in Washington. If McCain is smart, he will investigate.
Of course, the Republican Party should investigate McCain, too. All sexual activity, heterosexual and homosexual, should be investigated. Especially homosexual orientation/activity. Needless to say, every potential running-mates' spouse should be investigated.
So I think you are way wrong on Obama's VP. He needs someone with more experience as #1. He needs a foreign policy expert. He needs someone who is not partisan hack. He needs someone that helps him with addt'l voting demographics.
Those ground rules drop Biden and McCaskill. I think Webb is too much a loose cannon. Not sure about Hagel.
Seems like Bob Graham, Bob Kerrey, and Bill Richardson are good poss. candidates.
sorry. left off -- opposed the war as a litmus test.
The best veep choice for Obama or Hillary: Albert Gore.
Second Choice: General Wes Clark
Third Choice: Colin Powell (for Hillary)
Fourth Choice: Sen. Evan Bayh
Given the economic situation, another smart pick for Hillary or Obama: Bob Rubin
A winning veep for McCain or Obama: Mike Bloomberg
Or for McCain: Joe Lieberman
Mark Warner would be an awesome choice. BUt he is a cinch for the Senate race in VA, then there is Webb.. Jim Webb would be a absolute awesome pick..
Both would be awesome picks.. but would open the democrats to losing two Senate seats they are almost assured to have come November.
The other Virginia option, is Governor Tim Kaine. Outside the beltway, on the last year of his Governorship (which tends to be a lame duck year). He cant run in 2009 (VA law.. we have a one year term limit on Governors). With Warner and Webb in the Senate he wouldnt have a shot at those seats for a while. That is if Warner or Webb arent the VP.
Lets not forget that Gov. Kaine is on his national advisor staff, was one of the first super delgates to go for him, and the first Governor.
I will say if he does select a Virginan as his running mate, any one of them would make for a great choice and a great VP.
Maybe we need more than 1 VP?
For Obama,
Elizabeth Edwards.
Gov. Kaine in VA - great choice for Obama. Perfect, in fact. Makes sense, and for all the right reasons. Moderate Dem on the ticket, Southern (ish), executive experience. Other options include Gov. Sebilius (Kansas) and Gov. of Ten. (forget his name).
Clinton - Needs someone who won't get in a pissing contest with Pres. Clinton, first and foremost. Someone obedient, like Evan Bayh, Ted Strickland, or Tom Vilsack. But she needs a candidate that the nation (and Dem. party) can embrace openly. Obama is the obvious choice, but I doubt he takes it even if offered.
McCain - Has anyone mentioned Charlie Crist, Gov. of FL.? Wildly popular, and will ensure that McCain carries Florida and make him competitive in the south. I think putting Huckabee on the ticket turns off a lot of the independents that would otherwise consider McCain, but he might have to do it anyway.
what about mccain and Condi Rice??? Huge draw among conservatives, excellent speaker, a woman and black.. can you say winner
What is Obama goes for Gen.Powell as his VP.
Colin Powell's reputation took such a hit when he bowed down to publicly lie for Bush. The fact that he hasn't apologized and hasn't spoken out against Bush is the death of his political career.
Condi!?! You're kidding right. She's too entrenched in this criminal administration to have any hope of working for anyone that also isn't in it.
Lieberman for McCain? Well he certainly has no value on the democratic ticket, as the guy is a closet republican. I can't imagine he'd help McCain any more than he did Al Gore.
Huckabee is another joke. He may pull some of the religious nutter vote that the republican party relies on, but nobody remotely moderate would have any strong feelings for him. After 7 of years of a born again Christian wing nut, this country certainly doesn't need another Bible thumper.
As for Obama, Biden looks like the obvious pick. His foreign affairs experience counters Obama's lack of experience, and adds comfort to those who still need that "older white guy" presence on the ticket.
Richardson would be positive as well, and strengthening the grip on the latino vote could cripple the republicans.
I can't imagine Al Gore agreeing to be the veep again. Either he waits for a run in 4 years, or he focuses on being the environmental ambassador.
Bloomberg on either ticket would be interesting, as he is moderate across the board, and has proved undoubtedly that he gets results. He's smart as a whip, and would probably crush in the debates. Perhaps he could be McCain's best pick.
McCain should forget about pandering to the extreme right, this country is ready for change, and if his party wants to succeed, they're going to have to abandon their usual cast of criminals and find some leaders without rapsheets and with some integrity.