The Winner: Everyone But John McCain
Officially, victory in Michigan belongs to Mitt Romney. But for all practical purposes, tonight’s result is a win for every candidate in the race not named John McCain.
McCain came into Michigan in the same position Romney was two weeks ago. Back then, Romney was poised to score lead-off victories in both Iowa and New Hampshire, a one-two punch that would have sent the G.O.P.’s establishment massesvoters who have mixed feelings about all of the candidates and who have been content to wait for one to claim the mantle of inevitability—rushing into his camp, while marginalizing his opponents. But then Romney fell short in those states, and McCain inherited is spot as the would be-inevitable candidate.
The combination of Romney’s twin losses and McCain’s New Hampshire victory sent McCain’s poll numbers soaring, both in the next wave of primary states and in national polls. The Republican rank-and-file seemed to be signaling its willingness to rally behind him if he could maintain his momentum. That is why Michigan was so crucial to him: A win would have eliminated Romney and made follow-up McCain wins in South Carolina, Florida and in the big states on February 5 even more likely.
But he has fallen short. And now it is anyone’s guess who the favorite is on the Republican side. Each of the five remaining contenders can now point to a viable nomination roadmap (although some scenarios are more remote than others).
Romney would have been written off by much of the media and his party’s money men with a loss tonight. It would have been the third straight state that he’d lost after investing more heavily—with both his money and his time—than his rivals. Plus, his native-son status—he grew up in the state, his father governed it in the 1960s, and his sister-in-law ran for the U.S. Senate several years ago—gave him even less of an excuse for losing. With his win, he maintains his viability in South Carolina and Florida. If he can outperform McCain (and Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson) in those states, he might yet position himself as the rank-and-file’s preferred candidate on February 5.
McCain is still viable as well. His challenge now, much like Romney, is to outperform Giuliani and Thompson (and Romney) in South Carolina and Florida, which would marginalize them and position him as the establishment’s candidate on February 5. The only candidate he (and Romney) can afford to finish behind in South Carolina is Mike Huckabee, since there are signs that Huckabee, because of the religious themes of his campaign and fears about his electability, will have trouble corralling the G.O.P. masses on February 5. In essence, McCain and Romney (and Giuliani) are all competing among themselves for the right to advance to a one-on-one showdown with Huckabee on Super Duper Tuesday.
Giuliani’s (much fainter) hopes received a boost tonight, since his campaign’s decline has been directly tied to McCain’s rise. Giuliani is trying to make a stand in Florida, so presumably his best chance now rests on a very strong Huckabee win in South Carolina this Saturday—with Romney and McCain running far off the pace and, perhaps, with Thompson even in second place—a result that might sour Florida’s Republicans on the idea of McCain and Romney as viable alternatives to Huckabee. Then, Giuliani would need to post a strong Florida win and would again benefit from poor performances by every candidate except Huckabee. That could give the former mayor a one-on-one match-up with Huckabee on February 5, when Rudy-friendly states like New York, New Jersey, California and Illinois will vote.
Thompson, meanwhile, has even more remote prospects. He is targeting the same Christian conservative voters that have made Huckabee one of the leaders in South Carolina and must pull off a come-from-behind win there to keep his campaign afloat. A Thompson win in South Carolina could prompt the fence-sitting G.O.P. masses, who held high hopes for him eight months ago only to watch his campaign fizzle from the start, to give him a second look, making him a contender in Florida and on February 5. But after writing off so many early states, he must win South Carolina on Saturday, and the odds of that are very long.
Huckabee also benefits from the chaos caused by Romney’s win tonight, since it prevents the G.O.P. establishment from rallying around a non-Huckabee candidate—something that a McCain victory would have achieved. Huckabee also needs a South Carolina win, but McCain’s loss tonight also helps him in that quest, since he has been running even with Huckabee in South Carolina polls. The longer this chaos prevails on the G.O.P side, the better Huckabee’s chances: With a split field, he could gobble up many states with les than 40 percent of the vote.
If Michigan’s voters had made a different call tonight, they could have settled things. But, like their counterparts in Iowa and New Hampshire, they have thrown the race wide open.
- Poll
- Obama (D)
- McCain(R)
- Spread
- RCP Average
- 47.7
- 43.8
- Obama +3.9
- Candidate
- Favorable
- Unfavorable
- Spread
- Obama
- 54.3
- 34.4
- +19.9
- McCain
- 51.7
- 36.3
- +15.4
Resist the rush to form opinions on scant evidence. What you've called Romney's losses were in fact two close second places. Romney had the largest number of votes and delegates even before he won Michigan tonight. McCain won ONE state, Romney TWO. Solid reasons are Romney's business expertise, his problem solving skills, and his experience as a negotiator. Romney represents new vision and fresh voices. He can become a uniter. Coming from outside Washington, he has the greatest chance to create genuine change. He is the only one who knows how to create and hold jobs. Romney is a family man of impeccable character. Our Nation Needs Romney.
Romney's win in MI is no big deal, but McCain's second place is significant. Romney won in a state that needs a true business talent. Unfortunately, the man has waffled all over the place politically. To me, he has no more credibility. He keeps invoking the sainted name of Ronald Reagan -- give me a break! Better he should run on his own record and go the ethical route. People like McCain because of his "straight talk" and, if McCain stays true to what he believes (instead of invoking a dead past President who really screwed up our economy!), he has a terrific chance. Romney would make a good Secy of Commerce, I think.
Romney's win in MI is no big deal, but McCain's second place is significant. Romney won in a state that needs a true business talent. Unfortunately, the man has waffled all over the place politically. To me, he has no more credibility. He keeps invoking the sainted name of Ronald Reagan -- give me a break! Better he should run on his own record and go the ethical route. People like McCain because of his "straight talk" and, if McCain stays true to what he believes (instead of invoking a dead past President who really screwed up our economy!), he has a terrific chance. Romney would make a good Secy of Commerce, I think.
I agree with anonymous. Real republicans are rallying behind Romney, but the press refuses to acknowledge it. Look at the exit polls in Michigan and Romney won hands down in every republican catagory: women, men, conservatives, those who feel the economy is the most important factor. The writer correctly notes that Huckabee is unelectable, but fails to note that McCain has a serious problem with conservative and rank and file republicans. Should he be the nominee because independents infiltrate early primaries and "establishment" republicans rally behind him, the base will be further disenchanted and will not show up to support him in the fall (unless Hillary scares them to the voters booth). Voting in McCain is like nominating Dole in 1996-boring, scary, and too establishment. I had my doubts about Romney with his apparent pandering and flip flopping, but find no evidence of him having done that more than any other candidate.
Look, the simple fact is that McCain is the only Republican that can compete with Hillary. Looking at the electoral math, McCain can pull out a victory against her (a little tougher would be a victory against Obama.) Hillary's people know this, and have even admitted as much. McCain is all you guys say, and more: a crook (remember Keating Five?,) too establishment, totally on the wrong side concerning illegal immigration, and frankly I think a little touched in the head (thanks to the Hanoi Hilton.) Plus he's a senator; I can't stand senators. Governorships are the best training grounds for the presidency. Despite all of this, who would you rather have choosing supreme court nominees? Hillary? Gimme a break
Duncan Hunter is the strongest candidate on Immigration and Restoring American jobs plus all the other issues.
Very good man, no skeletons lurking in his closet. No Flipping Flopping like all the other candidates.
Freedom isn't free if you want a President for the People you have to donate to the cause. If you want the special interest to keep controlling gov, keep doing the same thing.
The state to watch is not South Carolina, it is but If Romney comes is Second Like I expect, Then the state to settle who the frontrunner going into Florida, will be Nevada.
Romney will easily defeat McCain in Nevada by an easy 7 + percentage points. If this happens, He will be crowned the Golden Front Runner with 3 wins 2 second place finishs and the most delegates, Republicans voting for him in all 4 contests even in the states he lost. This will certainly be the news media coverage if this transpires.
We only have till Saturday to find out. Hold on to your seats folks. It is now getting close to knowing the Nominee of our party !
J.Toobin, doesn't it make you a little suspicious when Hillary's camp is touting McCain as the most daunting GOP canidate? They want McCain because he would be easiest to beat in a general election. That's also why the press is touting him so much. He can't attract the base of his own party which any candidate needs in the general election.
I think Romney or Thompson are the GOP's best choices. Both are closer on the issues that resonate with the Republican base; both have charisma that people look for in a leader. But I think at this point, Thompson's a longshot, so that leaves Romney.
This person knows what they are talking about.Mitt Romney has more popular votes and delegates
but our liberal press still thinks the GOP has no front runner
Our Nation Needs Romney and he will be our next President 2009
I think Romney is a lier telling people in Michigan that he will get auto workers jobs back. GO MCCAIN ALL THE WAY TO THE WHITE HOUSE.
John McCain is utterly and completely unacceptable to the GOP party base (myself included) for a long litany of reasons. Quite frankly, McCain disgusts me because of his numerous transgressions against both the principles of conservatism and the U.S. Constitution. I simply will NOT vote for McCain under ANY circumstances -- not even if it appears that Satan's apostle herself and her minions from the dark side of the force are slouching toward the oval office at an accelerated pace. McCain has screwed us WAY too many times, so screw McCain. If he does somehow manage to secure the nomination via a chaotic convention scenario, rest assured I will NOT hold my nose and support him.
Ron Paul is also unacceptable. He's a kook and a wimp.
For now, my choices still stand as follows (in exactly this order): (1st) Fred Thompson, (2nd) Mike Huckabee, (3rd) Mitt Romney, and (4th) Rudy Giuliani. While all four of these candidates certainly have their flaws, all four of them are also still within the realm of acceptability to most of us true conservatives out here in the trenches.
On the other hand, McCain and Ron Paul are unacceptable to the GOP base of grass-roots conservatives in any scenario. Like it or not, that's the way it is. While a prospective GOP nominee certainly cannot win with only the conservative base, he most definitely will not win without us.
John McCain arrogantly defecated all over the Constitution more than once and urinated all over the conservative base of the party far too many times. Thus, he has nobody to blame but himself for the fact that he will be denied his final bid for the White House. A McCain presidency would mean another John Paul Stevens or David Souter on the Supreme Court, which means we might as well have a Democrat up there. We can always win back the Presidency the next time around with a true conservative candidate. That would be preferable to having the King of the RINOs up there.
Mitch
There are many misconceptions about this candidate.
"Romney was pro-choice"
Not personally. He has always been pro-life as a person but has not felt that his personal convictions should be forced on others. The people and the courts of Massachusetts were pro-choice. Romney couldn't have changed that even if he wanted to. He explained his position very well and publicly to us in Mass.
"Romney raised taxes"
Not true. He cut taxes, but he raised fees for services. Some of those service fees had not been changed in decades and it was a very reasonable move on his part. The fees were not broad based. An example would be like those signs by the exit ramps that advertise food/gas/lodging. Yes, those businesses are charged fees in order to have that advertisement on the sign. Most importantly, Romney cut government spending, made a smaller government, and ran a balanced budget.
"Romney supported gun controls"
He only supported background checks before you can buy a gun. A long time ago that took a few days. Now, by computer background checks can be done the same day. Technology changed, not Romney's position.
"Romney supported healthcare mandates"
This is true, but everyone is this country has a mandate to buy car insurance. That is because if somebody wrecks into your car, if they don't happen to have insurance the victim would be hosed. A similar principle applies to healthcare. If somebody doesn't have health insurance, they don't get regular check-ups and preventative care. Eventually they end up in the emergency room and everybody else pays. I am glad that Romney is willing to do something about health care. Better yet, he plans on allowing each state to do it in a way that will work best for that particular state.
I like Romney, and I will vote for him.
HUMPTY DUMPTY NEO-CON JOHNNY
NEO-CON JOHNNY SAT ON WALL
NEO-CON JOHNNY HAD A GREAT FALL
ALL THE NEW YORK TIMES NEO-CONS
AND ALL THE NEW YORK TIMES NEO-LIBS
COULD NOT PUT NEO-CON JOHNNY TOGETHER AGAIN
I agree with Moultrie GA and Michael. I will NEVER SUPPORT McCain. He is not a republican. He is a RINO (republican in name only). He has time and again opposed any Republican bill, the BUSH TAX CUTS. MCCAIN HAS CO-AUTHORED THE AMNESTY BILL and the McCain/Feingold Election Campaign. He fought every Bush action or proposal. He is a virtual or habitual Bush Basher. Why? because he is a sore loser. He has been bashing the GOP since he lost to GW Bush in 2000. McCain is the snake in the grass, who I will not trust. He will bite the GOP if needed, just to get elected to avenge himself from his 2000 loss.
He cannot accept his defeat, just like the democrats.
He is friendly with the Clintons, Kennedy's and a buddy of John Kerry. Remember he was offered the VP position by John Kerry?, the flip-flopper?. True republicans should not vote for McCain since he is being endorsed by the democrats, acts and speaks like a democrat. He must be a democrat.
I also agree with Chuck Norris. McCain is too old to be president. Let us be practical here. McCain will be 72 in August of 2008. By the time he finishes his 2nd term, if any, he is 80. Reagan was elected when he was 70. On Reagan's last 3 or 4 years of his second term, he has somehow, unfortunate as it is, contracted Alzheimers already. That is scary. I am old myself, just like Chuck, but I am not running for president. I do not have the pressures and stresses of the presidency.
SO I AM VOTING FOR MITT ROMNEY. HE IS GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY.
I agree with Moultrie GA and Michael. I will NEVER SUPPORT McCain. He is not a republican. He is a RINO (republican in name only). He has time and again opposed any Republican bill, the BUSH TAX CUTS. MCCAIN HAS CO-AUTHORED THE AMNESTY BILL and the McCain/Feingold Election Campaign. He fought every Bush action or proposal. He is a virtual or habitual Bush Basher. Why? because he is a sore loser. He has been bashing the GOP since he lost to GW Bush in 2000. McCain is the snake in the grass, who I will not trust. He will bite the GOP if needed, just to get elected to avenge himself from his 2000 loss.
He cannot accept his defeat, just like the democrats.
He is friendly with the Clintons, Kennedy's and a buddy of John Kerry. Remember he was offered the VP position by John Kerry?, the flip-flopper?. True republicans should not vote for McCain since he is being endorsed by the democrats, acts and speaks like a democrat. He must be a democrat.
I also agree with Chuck Norris. McCain is too old to be president. Let us be practical here. McCain will be 72 in August of 2008. By the time he finishes his 2nd term, if any, he is 80. Reagan was elected when he was 70. On Reagan's last 3 or 4 years of his second term, he has somehow, unfortunate as it is, contracted Alzheimers already. That is scary. I am old myself, just like Chuck, but I am not running for president. I do not have the pressures and stresses of the presidency.
SO I AM VOTING FOR MITT ROMNEY. HE IS GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY.
I agree with Moultrie GA and Michael. I will NEVER SUPPORT McCain. He is not a republican. He is a RINO (republican in name only). He has time and again opposed any Republican bill, the BUSH TAX CUTS. MCCAIN HAS CO-AUTHORED THE AMNESTY BILL and the McCain/Feingold Election Campaign. He fought every Bush action or proposal. He is a virtual or habitual Bush Basher. Why? because he is a sore loser. He has been bashing the GOP since he lost to GW Bush in 2000. McCain is the snake in the grass, who I will not trust. He will bite the GOP if needed, just to get elected to avenge himself from his 2000 loss.
He cannot accept his defeat, just like the democrats.
He is friendly with the Clintons, Kennedy's and a buddy of John Kerry. Remember he was offered the VP position by John Kerry?, the flip-flopper?. True republicans should not vote for McCain since he is being endorsed by the democrats, acts and speaks like a democrat. He must be a democrat.
I also agree with Chuck Norris. McCain is too old to be president. Let us be practical here. McCain will be 72 in August of 2008. By the time he finishes his 2nd term, if any, he is 80. Reagan was elected when he was 70. On Reagan's last 3 or 4 years of his second term, he has somehow, unfortunate as it is, contracted Alzheimers already. That is scary. I am old myself, just like Chuck, but I am not running for president. I do not have the pressures and stresses of the presidency.
SO I AM VOTING FOR MITT ROMNEY. HE IS GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY.