Whither the Weather? Study Blames Cold, Snow for Poor Retail Sales

Apparently the closing of several New York boutiques over the last few months--Kira Plastinina, Hollywould, Te Casan--can be attributed not just to the poor economy, but also to the temperature.

Earlier today, the Daily Transom received the results of a study conducted by Weather Trends International, which works with clients such as Target, Wal-Mart, and Kohl's, suggesting that this winter's extremely cold and snowy weather conditions are responsible for consumers staying home and not shopping. (They acknowledge the economy might have something to do with it as well--"consumer confidence" and weather are the two most significant factors in retail, according to the study.)

Last month was apparently the coldest January in five years and the snowiest in four. And for every one degree Fahrenheit colder, there is a 0.7 percent drop in retail sales.   

"New York City was 10 degrees colder than last year, which is an extreme drop for a city," said the company's CEO Bill Kirk, when the Daily Transom rang him up to get some New York-specific data. "The other problem is that we had such a cold fall, that in the current months there is not much left for us to buy. We already made all the seasonal purchases in the fall when it started getting cold and you're too cold to think spring because you're freezing." 

He continued: "Recessions are weather-driven in some respect. It started for retail in '07 with the coldest, snowiest April in decades and retail sales were horrible. Then we had a cold spring and people didn't buy what they would ordinarily buy. Then we had a cold summer. Then we had a record hot fall and again we didn't buy what we would normally buy. Then '08 wasn't much better. In the past, weather had an impact on sales, but it was masked by a great economy--the 1990s for example."

And so what are we to expect of the next year?  

"The two unknowns in retails are economy and weather," explained Mr. Kirk. "We can guess that the economy will remain bad over the next year, but you can't guess what the weather will do."