Some people may consider it too early to handicap the 2009 Oscars for the films and performers of 2008, but experience has taught me that I am not much wiser on the day before the ceremony than I am right now, so here are my final words on this year’s Oscars. With the year’s Best Picture category, the top contender seems to be The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, slightly over Slumdog Millionaire and its apotheosis of the underdog from one of the worst slums in the world. Also in the running are The Reader and the politically correct Milk, each having an outside chance. Why were Clint Eastwood and Gran Torino passed over? One theory is that the younger members of the academy voted against Clint and his film. Still, they voted for Angelina Jolie for Changeling, Clint’s lesser film this year.
To make matters worse in a red-carpety sort of way, they nominated Brad Pitt for Best Actor for his passive performance in Benjamin Button, though Micky Rourke in The Wrestler would seem to have a decisive edge over Mr. Pitt, along with Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon, Sean Penn in Milk and Richard Jenkins in The Visitor—all clearly superior to Mr. Pitt.
By the same token, Kate Winslet in The Reader, Melissa Leo in Frozen River, Meryl Streep in Doubt and Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married all leave Angelina in the dust, with Ms. Winslet long overdue for an Oscar.
The supporting categories are more difficult to predict. Will Heath Ledger triumph from the grave? Doubt’s Philip Seymour Hoffman is a hard man to vote against ever, and this year, so are Josh Brolin in Milk, Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder and Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road, who has a scene-stealing performance that most closely represents the reason that the category of Best Supporting Actor was established in the first place. Still, I give the late Ledger the edge.
Similarly Penélope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Viola Davis in Doubt, Marisa Tomei in The Wrestler, Amy Adams in Doubt and, most surprising of all, Taraji P. Henson in Benjamin Button all seem qualified to win, though I still pick Ms. Cruz.
I strongly suspect that few Academy voters managed to see Sally Hawkins in Mike Leigh’s Happy-Go-Lucky, though Mr. Leigh was nominated for his screenplay. Waltz With Bashir should be a lock for Best Foreign-Language Film, though The Class should also be a strong contender. Finally, I still can’t believe that so many Academy voters liked Benjamin Button. I don’t get it. Also, I am still campaigning for vote tabulations for all of us who don’t work for Price Waterhouse.
asarris@observer.com
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