For an ambitious politician, picking the wrong year to try to move up can be a career-killer – something that a fresh batch of Democrats may soon discover.
More than a dozen relatively unknown Democratic congressmen and state and local elected officials are making plays for Senate and gubernatorial seats next year, inspired by their party’s profound success in the 2006 and 2008 elections.
But what looked like a smart move in November 2008, when Barack Obama and a Democratic Congress were on their way to power and voters seemed ready to tune out the G.O.P. for good, seems more like a reckless gamble today. Not that we should be surprised.
Last week’s off-year election results, taken by much of the media as an unexpected rebuke of Obama’s Democratic Party, were actually an all-but-inevitable consequence of the Democratic resurgence of ’06 and ’08. In blue states, Democrats can’t survive in ’10 simply by running against the Republicans who run Washington; and in swing and red states, Democrats will feel the brunt of the public considerable economic anxiety – a far cry from the last two elections, when Republicans played the punching-bag role.
This is bad news for the up-and-coming Democrats who have marked ’10 as their breakthrough year. ’06 and ’08 were years in which even Democrats with obvious shortcomings managed to win toss-up races. But ’10 will be the kind of year when even Democrats who are smarter, savvier and more telegenic than their foes will still lose.
Three Democrats in particular are worth watching over the next year: Artur Davis, who is running for governor of Alabama; and Florida’s Kendrick Meek and Illinois’ Alexi Giannoulias, both of whom are running for the Senate. All three are young, smart, talented, and eminently marketable; they could go very far in the political game. But what if they picked the wrong year?
Davis, 42, has been eyeing a campaign for Alabama’s governorship since winning election to the House in 2002. He represents a predominantly black district with very liberal leanings, but he’s always made sure to position himself squarely in the middle, mindful of his long-term goals.
In ’02, Davis ran to the right of Rep. Earl Hilliard (whom he had opposed unsuccessfully in 2000) in the Democratic primary, attracting considerable national money and upsetting the incumbent. In the House, he’s broken with his party on key votes – including last Saturday’s on health care reform – in an effort to make himself acceptable to the conservative-leaning Alabama electorate.
Now, with G.O.P. governor Bob Riley facing a term limit, Davis is making his move. But his campaign feels two or four years too late. In ’06 or ’08, you could see Alabamans possibly taking a chance on a moderate-seeming Democrat in an open seat contest. But with Obama in the White House, Democrats in control of the Congress, and unemployment at 10 percent? Davis’ odds are long. And he won’t have a House seat to fall back on if he loses.
Ditto for Meek in Florida, who – assuming he wins the Democratic nod – will face either Governor Charlie Crist or former state House Speaker Marco Rubio in the general election. In theory, Crist has broader popularity and would be much tougher to beat, but Meek will be the underdog against either.
Like Davis, Meek, 43, was elected to the House in 2002, succeeding his mother, Carrie, in a liberal, majority-black district. And like Davis, he’s tried to carve out a more moderate profile, becoming a favorite of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and a leader among the younger members of the House Democratic Caucus. He could be a very attractive statewide candidate; but will enough swing voters even be willing to hear him out in ’10?
And then there’s the 33-year-old Giannoulias, who was elected treasurer of Illinois in ’06. He seems like the classic up-and-comer, but ’10 seems like the absolute worst year for a Democrat to seek an open Senate seat in Illinois: The Bush Bogeyman that proved so helpful to state Democrats is gone; voters are still smarting from the Blagojevich/Burris double-whammy; and Republicans are likely to nominate an appealing, moderate, well-funded candidate, Rep. Mark Kirk.
It seems a decent bet that Davis, Meek and Giannoulias – all of whom could easily have won in the climate of ’06 or ’08 – will lose next year.
And if they lose badly, it may be a while before they get another chance. Think of David McCurdy and Jim Cooper, two up-and-coming moderate Democratic congressmen who bet that 1994 was the year to try for the Senate: They were wrong, and paid dearly. McCurdy has fallen off the map and it took Cooper ten years to win back a seat in the House.
Or how about Kathleen Brown, who lost badly for California governor in ’94, or Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, defeated for governor of Maryland in the G.O.P. year of ’02? Or Bob Clement, who picked ’02 to run for the Senate in Tennessee? Wins in those races would have made them national players. But in defeat, they vanished.
It would be a shame if Meek, Giannoulias and (especially) Davis suffered this same feat. But really, they should have seen it coming.
Follow Steve Kornacki via RSS.
