Before the polls closed on the Monserrate-Peralta race, a few brave people tossed out predicitons, which uniformly showed Peralta crushing the former state senator. The only question was the size of the victory. Since it was a special election, it seemed to be anyone’s guess.
Afterward, a number of people emailed and wrote on Facebook about who they thought came out as winners and losers. In short: same-sex marriage advocates are up and Monserrate loyalists–plus David Paterson–are down.
Here’s a wrap-up of the predictions (including one from my mom), and winners and losers.
Predictions:
Michael Schnall:
Peralta: 72 percent
Monserrate: 23
Beltrani: 5
Dan Levitan:
Peralta: 66 percent
Monserrate: 33
Ben Fried:
Peralta: 58 percent
Monserrate:37
Beltrani: 5
Jessica Ramos:
Peralta: 56 percent
Monserrate: 44
Tammy Sun:
Peralta: 56 percent
Monserrate: 44
My mom:
“I don’t see how Monserrate can win after all the bad publicity, but then again: this is Jackson Heights! It all depends who comes out to vote, and who has a stronger ‘political machine.’ I wouldn’t like to guess on the spread–not since my loss at the Super Bowl. It was in the bag for The Colts and look what happened.”
Winners:
Fight Back P.A.C: Whether or not voters really did chose based on the issue of same-sex marriage, advocates get to claim their first win.
Rep. Joe Crowley: The Queens County Democratic Leader delivered a must-win victory in his backyard, and may now start to regain the county’s control of this part of the borough.
Parkside Group: They’ve been with Peralta since his first election in 2002, and did 14 pieces of mail for the guy. Queens is still their turf.
Julissa Ferreras: The former Monserrate aide went against her old boss, solidifying her ties with the Democratic organization, fellow lawmakers and union activists.
Francisco Moya: He’s a candidate for Peralta’s Assembly seat and an ally of Crowley and the Democratic establishment, which just demonstrated they can, in fact, win an election in the district.
John Sampson: The Democratic Senate leader now has one more seat on his side of the aisle.
Losers:
Ruben Diaz Sr.: He “lost an amigo,” as one reader put it.
Monserrate’s clergymen: The clergy that supported Monserrate on his opposition to same-sex marriage seem to have not much electoral muscle in the district. They also have one less friend in the State Senate.
David Paterson: Voters almost surely factored Monserrate’s domestic violence incident into their decision, which means they’re not so forgiving of an elected official tangled up with the issue.
Mike Nieves: He managed Monserrate’s campaign, and stuck to his boss to the very end. Loyal, but maybe to a fault.
Wayne Mahlke: The gay Monserrate aide found himself on the opposite side of same-sex marriage advocates. He’s now without a job.
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