Smith, and Not Many Others, Confident That the Senate Won't Blow the M.T.A. Bailout

ALBANY—All eyes are on Senate Majority Leader Malcolm Smith as he attempts to guide his latest bill to rescue the M.T.A. through the Senate. No one seems confident he'll succeed, except maybe him and a small number of his closest allies.

The comments coming from both the governor's office and the Assembly are heavily prefaced with "ifs": If the bill can pass and if it does the job and delivers the needed revenue, then they'll support it. Here's what Assemblyman Richard Brodsky told me:

"They're moving in the right direction on reform of the M.T.A., but it's not clear if they're raising enough money," he said. "It's a step in the right direction if they have the votes to pass it."

Speaker Sheldon Silver expressed similar sentiments. And David Paterson has been just as qualified.

In an appearance on WOR's John Gambling show, Smith was asked how the politicking was going to get the needed votes in his chamber.

"This is not an issue where politics should come into play at all," Smith insisted. "With all due respect, John, I think that is a foolish analysis, of us basically trying to buy votes."

He went on the call the M.T.A.'s deficit "one of the most complex situations with which state government was faced, and which we will correct as best we can."

Later, criticism of his plan came from Michael Bloomberg, who said he thought it was fiscally inadequate. Smith remained firm in his defense, before opening himself up to new criticism for planning a junket to Puerto Rico.

Those close to him still insist there's a good chance that the plan, or something close to it, will actually pass.

"I'm more confident now than I was before," State Senator Bill Perkins, who chairs the committee that deals with authorities, said Thursday after the framework of the plan had kicked around the news for a few days. "Now the focus will shift to the other side, and we'll see what the Speaker does."

David Paterson had hoped to claim a victory on the M.T.A. by being in front of the final solution, but will get behind a Senate plan if it emerges.

"The governor would rather see a plan pass, so he can get something of a win," said a person with strong ties to the Senate Democrats. "When you're the chief executive, anything that's not working reflects on you. If this fails, it drags them further down into the quagmire. If it passes, he derives some benefits."

The best bet, the consensus among Senate Democrats seems to be, is to entice members from northern suburbs to vote for the plan, while losing the votes of Craig Johnson and Brian Foley on Long Island. Smith would then need two Republican votes; most likely to come into line are Betty Little of the northern part of the state and Frank Padavan, of Queens.

The pressure is mounting. On Tuesday, members of NYPIRG's straphangers campaign planned to distribute leaflets calling on State Senator Martin Malave Dilan to do something for the M.T.A. Now, they're focusing on Padavan.