mr. kornacki, i have read your political analylsis and found it quite interesting. you follow a line which is quite dominant in the major media. i have a different perspective which leads me to a different prediction. in a nutshell, i see the house outcome as dem plus/minus 5 seats and the senare as dem plus/minus 2 seats. at this moment i see mccain as president with 274-8 electoral votes. my assumptions are as follows: 1) there is no recession this year, unemployment remains below 5.5%, and consumer spending remains steady. 2) gas prices moderate their rise and the people make the necessary adjustments while the politicians make their usual proposals and the developing world enters the energy bidding wars on an even larger scale. 3) the iraq war moves steadily and visibly to an american success. there will be no gettysburg or battleship missouri moment but the signs of iraqi stability, political maturity and economic potential will be there over the next six months for most to see. 4) the erosion of white working class support from the obama ticket will continue, while working women who truly and deeply admired hillary will be very difficult win back. 5) the hispanic voter has been curiously ignored in the dem primary, some will see this as disrespect. remember, in this context we are dealing with mcccain. he can not easily be characterized as a racist jingoist. his recotd is clear and his right-wing enemies too visible for this to work. i could go on but you get the idea. if the structural situation plays out as i predict ( the economy and the war ), obama simply does not have the demographic draw beyond his core constituencies ( blacks and educated liberals ) to win the election let alone provide coattails for recently elected congressional candidates in red-leaning districts. a close analysis of the precinct level returns in la. 6, which your article sites, will give you an idea of what i mean.
regards,
michael hogan
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