Kavanagh Running for Assembly
Brian Kavanagh, the second-place finisher in a crowded East Side City Council race last year, didn't contest the special election to the State Assembly by Sylvia Friedman yesterday in an essentially uncontested race.
But a recent call to Knickerbocker SKD, Kavanagh's consultants (who also worked for Mike, Scott Stringer, and new West Side assemblywoman Linda Rosenthal) found that their voicemail now has an option for "Kavanagh for Assembly."
This could produce one of the year's harder-fought primaries. Among other factors, Friedman didn't have to raise much money for her insider-driven Assembly win; Kavanagh broke $100,000 for his Council race, and a source says he's already brought in $60,000 for this fall.
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Kavanagh is going to win this.
Is Margarita Lopez going to run?
Margarita Lopez was recently fined 138K by the CFB for her 2001 RACE!... She's not sophisticated... not honest... and should never be allowed to run for anything again.
I've heard she doesn't want to be stuck in Albany but who knows.
Margarita would rather be a tree adjoining the Tompkins Square Park dog run on the LES than be the Speaker of the Assembly in Albany. If she'd really wanted to go to Albany she would be riding up on the Thruway today to be sworn in.
Does she hate the thought of being up in Albany more than she dislikes (1) Brian Kavanagh (for running against Rosie Mendez) or (2) Sylvia Friedman (who got Antonio Pagan back reelected)
so margarita's club double crossed their northern allies and split their vote and louise was out of town and couldn't whip the tildies into shape and the roosie district leaders split.. and lions and tigers and bears, oh my. not to mention brian and a lady from the south. whatta fun time will be had by all.
the best thing for sylvia would be if some others jump in -- if there is a repeat of the council race that rosie won, with a bunch of white guys cancelling each other out. Maybe Sylvia can convince Darren Bloch to jump in to help her out . . .
I am wondering also if anyone knows what the east side electeds and clubs will do?
Will they endorse?
yes, and now any candidate from coda will have the difficult time running against a 70-something incumbent with emphysema who won't be able to campaign in the heat of the summer. hmmm...
in the 74th, any latino running gets ~30% of the vote (even no-names against sanders). if a kavanagh and a bloch and a friedman are running in addition to a latino candidate from coda then coda takes it.
Kavanagh is dead meat. CODA can't stand him, GSID goes with Sylvia all the way, and she likely gets Roosevelt and Tilden Clubs, too -- District Leaders from both clubs were helping Sylvia celebrate last night, while Kavanagh was partying with his real buddies, the Upper West Siders, at Linda Rosenthal's celebration. Not to mention that any relevant elected official who endorses, will endorse Sylvia.
Of course, CODA's candiate ain't necessarily Latino, and the Latino candiate ain't necessarily CODA's.
In the 74th A.D., the little old Jewish grandma from Gramercy with the all-important endorsement from Congresswoman Maloney trumps the Irish guy from the West Side, every time.
After dumping their West Side Assembly candidate, Marc Landis, for scrap work from Linda Rosenthal, Knickerbocker SKD has just about zero credibility right now. It obviously doesn't take much to get them to throw their own clients overboard, and it may well be a matter of time before they give Kavanagh the heave-ho. Who's to say he doesn't get the Landis treatment from them?
who is this man? i googled him and found his profile in the voter guide and still don't remember him. how well did he do in the primary?
don't discount margarita. she's got the lesbian, latina, disabled women for bloomberg vote locked up!
Who will carry Kavanagh petitions?
- CODA: Hates Kavanagh - considers Friedman a placeholder?
- Tilden: Not with Kavanagh, I suspect. Run their own candidate? Would Garodnick's profile be doubled if he held 2 offices? Did Tilden vote for Friedman at all in county committee?
- GSID: They'll stick w/ Friedman; whether she's able to raise money/campaign or not.
- Roosevelt: They don't like Friedman, either. Darren Bloch? Eric Lugo?
Kavanagh has zero political support. He is hated by Tilden & Rosie Mendez. As an Irishman whose entire career was spent working for West Siders he has no natural base. His consultant Micah "the Slasher" Lasher's first instinct is always to go negative. I wonder how it will play with the electorate when Brian attacks a little old lady that most voters will identify with as their grandmother?
Friedman will have the clubs, the unions and most of all Carolyn "the Street Fighter Maloney" out in force for her.
2 2nd tier runs for office by Brian in 2 years.
Margarita says she's not running, and so does her protege, Councilwoman Rosie Mendez. Similarly, Darren Bloch attended Sylvia Friedman's victory party last night and made it emphatically clear that he is not a candidate. If Steve Kaufman runs, as he says he will, one of Roosevelt's leaders will probably support him, and one will support Sylvia, exactly as occurred during the County Committee vote. Kavanagh is simply grasping at straws here.
To Anonymous 5:15 PM:
True - but that endorsement from Maloney is the "if". Maloney doesn't like to be on the losing side, of things. And should Friedman have no money, be physically unable to get up and down to Albany (she's not going to have much much staff) - much less run a campaign - Maloney's not going to jump aboard that sinking ship.
Maloney has already endorsed Friedman. She has also warned other electeds to stick with Sylvia or stay out of it.
It's a mighty big "if" for Kavanagh, too, in other words: once Maloney endorses Friedman, as is likely given that they are old friends and allies even if they don't see eye to eye on every issue, Kavanagh would seem to be dead in the water. Remember, even if Sylvia loses, she and her club GSID will still be around -- meaning Maloney might well endorse her even if it looks like Sylvia is an underdog incumbent, which is practically unheard of anyway.
Jealous- anyone attacking Micah Lasher is just plain jealous. Don't be upset because he's smarter and better at his job and more sophisticated in his mid 20's than you'll ever be.
Kavanagh is going to run circles around Friedman! So much over-thinking....
Just like Kavanagh ran circles around Rosie Mendez?
That last minute mailing against Darren Bloch was real genuis, vaulted Brian into a distant 2nd place slightly past Gur Tsabar, who I believe is also running for Assembly.
I think the east side race is going to be a lot more interesting than the one across town. It is funny how the machine on the west side is so much more monolithic and better able to control the outcome from the beginning.
Anon 5:54
Yeah, but Rosie Mendez isn't an octogenarian without any political staff/machine behind her.
will sylvia:
raise money?
knock on doors?
campaign at subway stations?
do anything to let voters know who she is?
i bet insiders and electeds sit back and let this play out a while, see how much money kavanagh raises, see if sylvia works or drives everyone nuts
Yeah, I'm still jealous that Micah came up with brilliant Sharpton cartoon flyer in Brooklyn in Mark Green's superbly run 2001 campaign before I could think of it. Curses! Foiled again by Lasher's genius!
From what I've heard Gur has no interest in running for this seat; and doesn't live in that Assembly District.
anon 5:59 - i don't think she'll work OR drive anyone nuts. the 74th assembly seat is now effectively vacant until next fall.
earlier comment re: how much staff friedman will have; junior assemblymembers are vien about ~72,000 to spend on staff. y'all can do the math.
will friedman have anything to show to voters this summer? btw, shelly hates her. almost as much as he does margarita.