East Side Theories
A simple (and simplistic) scouting report would go something like this: Klein is affable, and he knows the district well. Kellner is something of wonder boy who worked on several local races and works for the city comptroller now. Morenzi is apt to get the endorsement of his boss, which makes him, I suppose, the front-runner.
On the other hand, that last distinction might be of limited value here.
Remember when Manhattan Assemblyman Steve Sanders retired, and his chief of staff Steve Kauffman ran for the seat? He was considered the front-runner and the presumed beneficiary of whatever operation kept Sanders re-elected for more than two decades.
But because there had been no solid fund-raising or grassroots operation built up to keep Sanders in place, there was never much of an inheritance for Kaufman. He lost the county endorsement to outsider Sylvia Friedman (who was then defeated for re-election by Brian Kavanagh) and that was that.
There may be a similar hierarchical power vacuum in the Grannis district.
Of the roughly 200 county committee seats in the district, about 30 are filled. That means, essentially, that the Democratic nomination could be determined by as few as 16 people.
Which is to say that this thing is wide open.
-- Azi Paybarah
The names of a few active women are clamoring around as well.
I susoect that the Party rules make some provision to allow for meetings at which each of the district leader will be able to fill their vacaniceis. This will happen almost instantly. After that the date for the election will be set.
i heard micah lasher was in.
Doesn't this all get decided by County Committee? -- in which case they're appealing to a very small audience. Kauffman lost because no one knew who he was, and he never made the effort to ask for votes, relying entirely on Sanders' endorsement. Count on these contenders not to make the same mistake.
Nick Viest, who is an R, lives in the district and is a Republican DL. Before you laugh me off, he is president of the 19th Precinct Community Council, Chair of a CB8 committee, was president of the armory, is very well respected in the community and actually won Citizen's Union endorsement when he ran against Eva. I would not count him out completely if he decided to run in the district - he most certainly has more community experience and gravitas than either Barry or Micah. I know and like both of them, but Nick would be a compelling candidate regardless of party affiliation.
It won't be Barry or Micah.
There is a provision in the election law that allows the County Committee to fill vacant Committee seats, so the 285 or so slots will be filled and the Democratic nominee will not be chosen by 16 people.
If anything, Grannis has LESS clout among club members than Sanders, so he can't deliver anything. I would look to see who Congresswoman Maloney supports.
to: 3:56, it's Micah Kellner that's running not Michah Lasher. Lasher does not live in district.
4:01 That's a very Democratic district -- it would be a really uphill fight for any Republican. It was a Democratic seat when the rest of the East Side was Republican. Hard to imagine it switching now that the rest of Manhattan has become so Democratic. And 4:07 -- if not Micah and Barry then who?
I hear Congresswoman Maloney and Senator Liz Kruger are going to get behind one candidate and get him/her the nod.
If one of the candidates gets the district leaders on board and has majority support of the current county committee members it is possible that none of the vacancies will be filled and 30 people could decide it.
Barry Klein, while a nice guy who serves Jonathan Bing well, does not have grass roots support in Jonathan's district let alone the neighboring district.
The political leadership of the district in the form of the East Side Democratic Club and the Lenox Hill Democratic Club has never been controlled by Grannis so he hardly has the power to install Morenzi.
The idea of a Republican taking the district is almost laughable. If they could not do it in the 73rd in 2002 or in the council districts that overlap this district in 2005 they are hardly going to be able to do it against a Democratic nominee supported by Spitzer, Silver et. al. in a district which is more Democratic then the aforementioned district.
How are county committee seats filled? Is it appointed or through an election?
Republican can only win under special circumstances, but those could occur. He'd need, money, a name, and split among the Dems.
Charlie Millard represented almost all this area on the Council. It can be done (but probably won't be).
Hey Azi, learn the process. County Committe votes are weighted by the number of votes cast on the Dem line for Governor in the ED. So 16 is probably not the numbetr, even if they don't fill any seats (and they will).
Micah has had more jobs than in a jelly bean bowl.
He always gets fired!!!
Micah is wicked smart...as for 9:27's jelly bean bowl reference, i have one word...PATHETIC!
Nassau Nell is cracking me up -- kind of like when John McCain sang Barbra Streisand tunes on Saturday Night Live. Hey, Nell, I hear Tom Suozzi and Tom DiNapoli are putting together a barbershop quartet with Basil Paterson and Al D'Amato. On second thought, maybe you should stick to giving inside tips about the grass on your side of the fence, and maybe I should stick to mine.
Maybe Mark Alan Siegel will return?
Mark Alan Siegel represented Bing's district. He ran for the Florida legislature last year in Boca Raton and came in third place in the Democratic primary.
Wasn't Siegel involved in some sort of scandal?
Is this race definitely going to be decided by the county committee? Or could there be an election in November of 07?
Word is Patrick Murphy is considering a go at the Grannis seat. Good fundraiser and relentless campaigner.
Hey 2:45, Patrick Murphy does not live in the 65th A.D. If he did, he would have been running against Lappin and not Garodnick. Keep dreaming Republicans.