The 80th Annual Academy Award nominations have recently been announced amid the usual mix of old and new uncertainties and anxieties. After the political pollsters and pundits bombed out in foretelling the New Hampshire Democratic primary results, it is certainly a calculated risk on the part of this self-ordained prophet to predict this year’s Oscar winners at this early date. For one thing, the writer’s strike and the resultant picketing have paralyzed the publicity machines of the various studios and distributors, not to mention all the stymied personal publicists of the Oscar candidates. Then again, the Academy’s preference for critical ratings over box office success has created more flux than ever this year, a situation in which Academy voters, and certainly most prospective television viewers, may not have seen all the picture and performing nominees. So much gloom and doom, and so little hope and joy. Perhaps this is the prevailing mood of the general public in these chaotic times, but the Great Depression and World War II were no picnics either, and movies managed to be cheerful and optimistic enough to lift a nation’s spirits, especially in the Academy Award season. But enough of my advance alibis for my very possible failure to pick all the Oscar winners. All I ask of my readers is that they not bet their rent or mortgage money on my presumed perspicacity or that of my crystal ball.

For best film I am going out on a limb to predict Juno as the winner over Atonement, Michael Clayton, No Country for Old Men, and There Will Be Blood. My reasons for this selection are, as usual, very convoluted. I’d like to think that my choice had nothing to do with my own enthusiasm for this work, which I picked as the top English-language film of the year. I simply have a hunch that Juno is this year’s Little Miss Sunshine, which many people have regretted retroactively for its losing to The Departed last year, in a burst of unexpected redemption for Martin Scorsese, whom the Academy had denied repeatedly in the past. By the same token, since the noirish Departed won last year, the equally noirish Michael Clayton may have a harder time this year because of its genre, despite the Academy’s proven affection for George Clooney.

Atonement, No Country for Old Men, and There Will Be Blood have each won more than their share of critical superlatives and pre-Oscar awards, but the way I figure it, Atonement may be too British for this year’s Academy voters, and No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood may be competing with each other for the same elitist downbeat votes.

For best actress I am going out on an even longer limb in picking Ellen Page over the logical favorite, Julie Christie, whom I have admired and adored since Billy Liar (1963). But almost nobody has seen her vehicle, Away From Her, compared to all the people who have seen Juno. Ms. Page and Ms. Christie get their stiffest competition from Marion Cotillard for her ugly-makeup triumph as Edith Piaf in La Vie en Rose. Laura Linney in The Savages provides an Oscar-worthy performance in an unfairly neglected film. Cate Blanchett, nominated for her lead performance in Elizabeth: The Golden Age and for her supporting turn in I’m Not There, becomes only the 11th performer in Oscar history to be nominated in both the lead and the supporting categories, joining such actors as Fay Bainter, nominated in 1938 for White Banners and Jezebel; Teresa Wright in 1942, for Pride of the Yankees and Mrs. Miniver; and, more recently, Al Pacino in 1992, for Scent of a Woman and Glengarry Glen Ross. Both Ms. Bainter and Ms. Wright won their Oscars in the supporting category and lost out to Bette Davis (for Jezebel) and Greer Garson (for Miniver), respectively, in the lead category. Actually, I think Ms. Blanchett has a better chance for her transvestite impersonation of Bob Dylan in I’m Not There over Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton, Amy Ryan in Gone Baby, Gone, Ruby Dee in American Gangster and Saoirse Ronan in Atonement—all excellent actresses giving exemplary performances in comparatively straight roles.

The tightest and most uncertain contest will be for best actor, between George Clooney in Michael Clayton and Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood. It will be a battle between a Hollywood superstar with a public service résumé and an international maverick with a reputation for irascibility. It is also a battle between a sympathetic underdog character and an unsympathetic capitalist bully. It would be no contest in Oscar terms if it were not for the support Mr. Day-Lewis has received from the most influential critics. Johnny Depp in Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, Tommy Lee Jones in The Valley of Elah and Viggo Mortensen in Eastern Promises give good performances in non-best-picture nominees, and are thus automatically handicapped in a race against Mr. Clooney and Mr. Day-Lewis, with their nominated film entries.

For best supporting actor I would have to go with Javier Bardem, who is something of a ringer in this category for his big, lead-size role in No Country for Old Men. The very strong performances of Tom Wilkinson in Michael Clayton, Philip Seymour Hoffman in Charlie Wilson’s War, Casey Affleck in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford and Hal Holbrook in Into the Wild would all have had more of a chance for serious consideration if it were not for the Academy’s miscategorization of Mr. Bardem. If anybody in the film world gave out awards for multiple virtuosity, this year it would go to Philip Seymour Hoffman for his brilliant portrayals in The Savages and Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead, in addition to being the best thing in Charlie Wilson’s War.

The ringer in the best director category is Julian Schnabel for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, the odds-on favorite to win in the foreign-language category. Nonetheless, I will go out on a limb and choose Joel and Ethan Coen for No Country for Old Men, as a way of compensating for the fact that they have never won an Oscar. It is also a way of balancing the awards in an unusually competitive year. That Joe Wright was not nominated as the director of Atonement is another indication that Atonement is not in the running for best picture. By my convoluted reasoning, Jason Reitman might win if there is a complete sweep for Juno, which I doubt. Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton is not as well known as the other nominees. Paul Thomas Anderson will win if There Will Be Blood becomes a sweep film, which I also doubt.

For original screenplay, I would guess that the much publicized Diablo Cody has a slight edge for Juno, though I am wary of a surprise shift in the screenplay category to Brad Bird (with story by Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco and Mr. Bird) for, of all things, Ratatouille, the wittiest and sharpest piece of animation anyone has seen in ages. Needless to say, Ratatouille is a shoo-in for its own category. Tamara Jenkins for The Savages, Nancy Oliver for Lars and the Real Girl, and Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton are all worthy runners-up unless Mr. Gilroy becomes part of a Michael Clayton sweep, which, again, I very much doubt.

For adapted screenplay Sarah Polley should be a lock for the Oscars with Away From Her, particularly if Julie Christie wins Best Actress. Joel and Ethan Coen are again strong contenders for No Country for Old Men, as are Ronald Harwood for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly and Paul Thomas Anderson for There Will Be Blood. The fifth nominee, Christopher Hampton, for Atonement, would seem to be out of it inasmuch as the director of Atonement, Joe Wright, did not make the final cut.

Update: The Screen Actors Guild Awards, sort of a cross between the Oscars and the Golden Globes (in also doing television), have just named Julie Christie as best actress, Ruby Dee as best supporting actress, Daniel Day-Lewis as best actor and Javier Bardem as best supporting actor, my only agreement with the guild. Since the Screen Actors Guild includes a large portion of the Academy voters, I am not going to butt my head against the wall in frustration. So I am changing one of my previous choices, though not the arcane reasoning behind it. I now pick Julie Christie to win best actress over Ellen Page, and stick to all of my other choices through thick and thin. Not only did Darling Julie look as divine as ever at the guild affair, in her very first sentence, she invoked the magic word, “unions,” as a positive force in these troubled times. With all the members of one guild or another voting in the Academy, it would be sheer folly to vote against her. Perhaps I am wrong about Juno too, but I have done enough backtracking for one column already. Besides, I simply refuse to believe that the Academy will vote for a downer like No Country for Old Men. There is always the chance that there will be an Academy backlash against the guild on this one issue.