On the surface, the story is a familiar one.

A young insurgent, Dan Squadron, decides to challenge an entrenched incumbent, Marty Connor, in a State Senate race, in a year when public antipathy towards the ossified ways of Albany is greater than it has been in recent memory. The line between underdog liberal reformer and entrenched proponent of the status quo should be clear.

But a couple of unusual things have happened. Squadron, 28, has acquired the trappings, at least, of the establishment guy. He has raced out to a lead in high-increment fund-raising -- he has spent heavily but still has nearly $300,000 on hand, whereas Connor has barely spent $2500 and has only $83,000 -- and has gained support from some powerful labor entities like UNITE HERE, the Communication Workers of America and the union-backed Working Families Party.  read more »

Here’s something I didn’t get to squeeze into my story about the potential impact of Barack Obama’s nomination on New York politics: in the February 5 primary, 276,076 of the Democrats who voted in New York City had never voted before.

That’s according to Jerry Skurnik, a Democratic consultant and professional number-cruncher.  read more »

It should, theoretically, be the least of concerns for Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver's primary challengers to petition successfully for a place on the ballot. (Only 500 signatures are required in the district.) But they're not taking any chances.

This morning, one of Silver’s opponents, Luke Henry, announced that he’s retained Alan Zimmerman, a petition specialist. In announcing Zimmerman's hire, Henry's campaign said, "No campaign for which Zimmerman has directed the petitioning operation has ever failed to get onto the ballot. This is no small accomplishment in New York, where candidates are often 'bumped' from the ballot for failing to comply with meaningless technicalities."  read more »

Here's how longtime political consultant Jerry Skurnik explained why anyone cares who wins the ongoing race for one of two positions on Manhattan Surrogate's Court: “Because a lot of lawyers make a lot of money at the courts."

In particular, he went on, trust and real estate lawyers, "many of whom are politically connected, get really high fees in Surrogate's Court."  read more »

Here's the invitation to the holiday party hosted by Jerry Skurnik and Stuart Osnow of Prime New York, the warehouse for lots and lots of voter information in New York.

As always, the invitation was accompanied by some political poetry:  read more »

Last night I emailed a few people to ask who the real winners and losers were from yesterday’s elections.

Here’s some of what they said.

Joseph Mercurio:"The losers are the people who complicated an election where Democrats would have continued to pick up seats throughout the state by aggressively pushing a new plan for driver licenses that could have been announced Wednesday for the first time.  The winners will be the Democrats who took strong positions and won anyway."

Jerry Skurnik: "Overall there certainly wasn't the big Republican surge somebody thought would happen because of troopergate and the driver's license issue but the Dems did not continue to make gains as they did the last few years."

Evan Stavisky: "We [his firm, Parkside Group] defeated the 12-year incumbent District Attorney of Rockland County (who, earlier this year finished up his term as President of the NYS District Attorneys Association)."

Your thoughts?  read more »

According to one neighbor who spoke to the Daily News, things don't look good.

A downstairs neighbor, Daphne Charles, 28, said she remembers hearing people move in upstairs only "late in the week" of the Feb. 20 election.

If Eugene is disqualified from holding office, that would create another vacancy for the seat. The mayor would then have to call another special election, according to Jerry Skurnik.

"Since candidates have won when polls have shown them down by 20 points a week out, can we just agree right now that no poll a year and a half before an election with a margin of less than 20 means anything?"

In a quick telephone chat, Skurnik elaborated.

"Michael Bloomberg wasn't ahead of Mark Green in any polls until the very end" of the 2001 mayoral race.

For the record, there appear to be 13 names down to run for the Yvette Clarke seat.

Jerry Skurnik includes some facts about the selection of judges which he said the Times missed in their recent editorial.

Spin Cycle has more on these numbers that Maureen O'Connell produced when she ran for a countywide position in 2005.

While in Delaware recently, Rudy Giuliani said, "I think the biggest question you have to ask is, 'Can you really lead the country?' If I believe that I can do it, then I will, and if I don't, then I'll support somebody else."

The head of the New York State Bar Association, Mark Alcott, said the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Detainee Affairs is "not fit for office."

Greg Sargent is moving his eye-on-the-media blog over to Josh Marshall's site.