Virginia
McCain Wins, But Anti-McCain Voters Have Their Say
There were 116 total delegates at stake in the Republican presidential race tonight, and John McCain has apparently won all of them—terrific news for a candidate who began the day about 400 delegates shy of the magic number needed to clinch the nomination.
And two of his primary wins were by convincing margins—in Maryland, where he led Mike Huckabee by a two-to-one margin, and in the District of Columbia, where he was the overwhelming choice of the approximately 4,000 voters who took Republican ballots.
And now the bad news: McCain got a serious scare in Virginia, finally pulling out a high single-digit victory after trailing Huckabee in the early returns. McCain had been the runaway leader—by about 30 points—in polls taken just last week in Virginia. read more »
This Time, Obama Wins the Hillary Voters Too
The losing streak has hit eight for Hillary Clinton, but that's hardly the worst news to come out of Chesapeake Tuesday for the former first lady.
Nor is the fact that she now trails in most every independent delegate count—even the counts that include the non-binding pledges of superdelegates. And nor, for that matter, is the likelihood that her skid will reach double-digits a week from tonight, when Wisconsin and Hawaii vote.
No, the most troubling development for Hillary Clinton is that—for the first time—Barack Obama has demonstrated an ability to eat significantly into her base of support while retaining his, creating the possibility that the Democratic race is shifting decisively in his favor and that it is no longer a clash between opposing and immovable coalitions. read more »
Celebrating Victories, McCain Mocks Obama
ALEXANDRIA, Va.—John McCain just rounded off his victory speech here by cheekily appropriating one of Barack Obama's signature lines.
"I promise you I am fired up and ready to go," he told a cheering crowd.
The Arizona senator's speech seemed to target Obama more than Clinton, in yet another sign of the shifting dynamics of the Democratic race.
At one point he suggested that Obama's candidacy offered "not a promise of hope but a platitude." read more »
Huckabee Makes Things Close, Hillary Doesn't
Signs point to a very long night for Hillary Clinton. Polls are still open in Maryland and in the District of Columbia, but they have just closed in Virginia—and news outlets have already declared Barack Obama the winner by a wide margin.
Virginia was Clinton's best chance of scoring an upset victory, or at least keeping the race close enough to declare a moral victory. If she has lost lopsidedly in Virginia, it points to even worse defeats for her in Maryland and D.C. read more »
The Potomac Stakes: Hillary Must Limit the Damage, McCain Can Put It Away
Here’s what’s at stake in today's primary contests:
Democrats
Barack Obama is supposed to go three-for-three on the day. Short of engineering an upset victory—which would represent a campaign-changing development—Hillary Clinton’s best hope lies in containing her opponent’s victory margins and keeping the delegate race close, possibly positioning her to declare some kind of moral victory. On the heels of her weekend drubbings—and the news that she is replacing her campaign manager—the risk for Clinton tomorrow is obvious: Three more unspinnably lopsided defeats could create the impression that her campaign is in a tailspin, and that Obama is beginning to pull away.
Maryland: read more »
Against Big Losses and a Pro-Obama Crowd, Hillary Stands Her Ground
RICHMOND, Va., Feb. 10—If the receptions Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton respectively received at a gathering of influential Democrats last night in Richmond is any indication, Clinton is in for another tough result when Virginia holds its primary on Tuesday.
The stark difference in enthusiasm was noticeable even in passing. Outside the Stuart C. Siegel Center, which played host to the Jefferson-Jackson dinner, a couple hundred of Obama supporters beating drums, wearing paper Obama masks and holding giant white letters spelling Obama’s name urged passing cars to honk. Many of them did.
A quieter group of Hillary supporters had less success. read more »
Mary Lucier on the Sweet Plains
The Foer Family
Commentary Is Afraid of Virginia Woolf (and Intermarriage)
This vision of intermarriage is offered by Commentary in its December issue, in a piece about Leonard and Virginia Woolf (based on the new biography of Leonard by Victoria Glendinning).
John Gross writes that Leonard Woolf's marriage was a sham of Jewish self-hatred. Virginia, he states flatly, "did not like Jews." The article catalogs every anti-Semitic thing that Virginia Woolf said (most of them apparently in journals and letters). She was marrying "a penniless Jew." She didn't like her mother-in-law's "Jewish voice" or "Jewish laugh." His family were "nine Jews, all of whom with the single exception of Leonard, might well have been drowned, without the world wagging one ounce the worst." Then there is "The Jew having a bath" in the shared bathroom of a lodging house, who leaves "a line of grease around the bath" (That from the novel The Years).
These statements are not "casual 'drawing-room' anti-Semitism." Gross can halfway excuse that. They reflect Virginia's hatred for her husband, Gross says; for she suffered from the racist view that "all Jews are interchangeable." And when Leonard married Virginia, he "was made to feel like a true outsider." read more »
Thereby dismissing Leonard Woolf's claims that he never experienced anti-Semitism. Brother, you was living in the tiger cage of anti-Semitism!
Another Democratic Romp
Swelling their ranks in 2008, though, shouldn't require nearly as much nervous perspiration and nail-biting.
The reason is rooted in math: In the '08 round of Senate elections, Republicans will have 21 seats to defend, compared to the Democrats' 12. That means nine more opportunities for Democrats to flip GOP seats - some in otherwise blue state - than for Republicans to gain ground. In other words, the Democrats should be playing offense.
Call it one of the underappreciated consequences of success in politics. The Republican-rich class of senators set to face the voters in '08 is a product of the 2002 midterm cycle, when the GOP's electoral savagery - best encapsulated in the loathsome Georgia television spot that likened Max Cleland to Osama bin Laden - keyed a history-defying drive in which they held all but one of their Senate seats and actually wrested three from the Democrats.
But the shelf-life for big classes dominated by one party doesn't typically extend past year six. Recall the 44-state Reagan landslide of 1980, which unexpectedly vaulted the GOP to Senate control - while at the same time positioning eight Republican incumbents to be swept out of office in 1986, when Democrats won the chamber back.
Granted, it is too soon to say which party the national political environment will favor in '08 - a presidential election year, after all. Nor do we yet know the caliber of the individual candidates each party will recruit in potentially key races.
Still, look closer at which senators are up in two years - and, just as important, where they are up - and the early political cartography is indeed favorable to the Senate's new majority party. The American Prospect's blog suggests there could be "56 or more" Senate Democrats when the next president takes office. That number feels highs - neither party has controlled more than 55 seats since 1994 - but the point is well taken.
The first thing to consider is who will retire.
Only three '08 Senate Democrats seem like contenders for this category: John Forbes Kerry and Joe Biden - who, at least for now, are amusing themselves with a "Who Can Wage The More Absurd Presidential Campaign?" contest - and Frank Lautenberg, who will be 84 years old in two years.
None of those three are likely to hang it up, though. Kerry and Biden can both file for re-election in their home states months after being humbled in New Hampshire. And Lautenberg's exit, sort of like Joe Paterno's in football, is a perennial rumor, even if the man himself shows no signs of fatigue. No matter, Democrats would be heavily favored to retain all three seats, with or without the incumbents on the ballot.
Beyond that, just three '08 Democratic incumbents have immediate reason to worry: Mary Landrieu, whose career was saved in 2002 by New Orleans residents who may have left the state for good; Tim Johnson, who came within inches of losing his seat from red state South Dakota in '02; and Montana's Max Baucus, a fifth-termer who must always be politically vigilant in a state that President Bush won by 20 points in 2004.
But it's a different story for the GOP, which has a minimum of three very ripe '08 retirement prospects - each in an eminently winnable state for the Democrats.
Like Virginia, where 79-year-old John Warner, as difficult as he is to read, is unlikely to stick around the Senate much longer, now that he's been stripped of his Armed Services gavel. And Colorado, where two-term Republican Wayne Allard, re-elected with just 51 percent of the vote in 2002, would have to go back on a term limits pledge to run again in '08. And New Mexico, home of septuagenarian Pete Domenici, who has at times tooled around the Capitol in a scooter in recent years.
Those three states each already have one Democratic senator (senator-elect, in Virginia's case) and voted for the Democratic candidate in their most recent gubernatorial elections - prime pick-up targets for the party, in other words, if the GOP incumbents stand down.
And those are just the obvious GOP retirement prospects.
Ted Stevens of Alaska will be 85 in '08, though at least there the Republicans would be nearly assured of holding the seat. But North Carolina - a state that once sent John Edwards to the Senate and that has been governed by Democrats for 14 consecutive years - could get interesting if Elizabeth Dole, now 70 and licking the wounds from her horrific just-completed tenure as the chairwoman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, opts to become the second former senator in her home. And what if 70-year-old Pat Roberts bags it in Kansas-- where an exceedingly popular Democratic governor waits in the wings?
Then there are the Republicans who are certain to run again - facing potentially unpredictable blue state electorates. Norm Coleman in Minnesota, perhaps squaring off against Al Franken in what would be the most entertaining '08 race, and New Hampshire's John Sununu, who is praying his state's rock star Democratic governor doesn't catch Potomac Fever, are at the top of this watch list.
Of course, the Democrats' success this year makes having a banner year in '08 a virtual imperative for them. After all, their last two strong Senate years - 2000 and this year - involved the same class. So perhaps it's not too early to note that in 2012, 24 of the 33 seats up will be Democratic.
G.O.P. Campaign Tactics Reveal True Character
Crunching the Numbers in Virginia. Recount?
The Bright Side Of Repudiation
Warner To Drop Out
"He has been saying for more than a year that he was going to take a serious look at this thing and then make a decision," said a senior aide to Warner, who said he was asked not to make on the record comments until Warner made his announcement at 11 am. "Ultimately it was a personal consideration."
The source dismissed the idea that Clinton, with her enormous name recognition and reserves of cash, scared Warner off the campaign trail.
"He has a deep and healthy respect for her as a person and a potential candidate," said the source. "But no, none of this was driven by her, shying away from her or anyone else."
Warner, the source said, "is determined to stay in the public and political arena. He is certainly not ruling out a later run for electoral office."
UPDATE: Warner speaks: "while politically this appears to be the right time for me to take the plunge--at this point, I want to have a real life."Message after the jump. read more »
--Jason HorowitzGetting Risky Teens Off Our Highway
Getting Risky Teens Off Our Highway
Gay Marriage Is Love; Why Are Chuck, Hillary Skittish on the Topic?
My Editor and My Wife Criticize "The Da Vinci Code"
When I got home I told my wife about the conversation and she agreed with my editor. She said, "It's not a very good thriller." "Then why did you read it?" "I read a lot of bad thrillers." I asked her to elaborate. She said, "It's badly written, formulaic, cliched, clunky, and shtik-driven. The book he wrote before has exactly the same structure. I think it's about the Pope."
I asked her why it was so successful—because of the Catholic church? She said, "No. It's the business of a thriller to make something scary up about something. You can say that the Nazis are going to rearm and take over Germany. That's what a thriller's supposed to do." I asked her again: "Well then how do you explain that it's been such a big hit?" "I can't. I'm mystified."
I don't usually stump my wife. I gotta get to the bottom of this.
How the Geico Gecko Became My Everyman Hero
I called the Martin Agency in Richmond, Va., to find out who he is. read more »
The Gecko.
Ed Norton Finds Lust in Valley
Moussaoui Sentenced To Life In Prison
ALEXANDRIA, Va. (AP) - A federal jury spared al-Qaida conspirator Zacarias Moussaoui from execution Wednesday and decided he will be sentenced to life in prison for his role in the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
Munch’s Nightmarish Narcissism Prophesied Century’s Obsessions
New School Post-Mortem
I've spent this morning at the New School, where two panels of senior aides to the five major Mayoral candidates went back over campaign decisions, first the primary and then the general election, steered by ABC News's Mark Halperin.
The event featured a little news: Bloomberg aide Bill Cunningham says of Mike's spending, "Inflation adjusted, we might actually be spending less money [than in 2001]."
He also blew a little kiss to Shelly: "We sent flowers to Shelly Silver," after he killed the stadium, he said. "Big red roses."
Ferrer's aides, mostly excepting Roberto, meanwhile, mostly conceded that their candidate is not a great communicator -- "at a certain point, people don't change," said Ferrer campaign manager Nick Baldick -- and that the campaign mishhandled the Diallo episode.
"The politically convenient way would have been to apologize and to say it was a crime," Jef Pollock said. "[Freddy] and others rejected it...as it dragged on the performance got angrier and that didn't really help."
Andrew Kirtzman, meanwhile, defended the endless coverage of the story: "You crafted this incredibly lawyerly, vague answer that neither defended it or apologized....You guys kept it alive by evading the central question."
The conversation detoured briefly into Virginia's flyer flap. Henry Stern offered that the flap was "a substitute" for "people who had a low regard for Ms. Fields' abilities."
Fields campaign manager Chung Seto pointed the finger at consultant Joe Mercurio, who responded in kind:
"London ws bombed by terrorists the same day and they managed to continue the story."
Jim Margolis marvelled a bit at the endlessness of the flap, and pointed out that the use of stock footage is common in television spots.
There was also some debunking Primary night mythology. Anthony and Freddy didn't speak, and there wasn't really any pressure brought to bear on Anthony to drop out.
"The last thing we wish to have in the campaign is affirmative action," Roberto Ramirez said.
(Margolis said he and Pollock did talk that night: "Jef was less than enthusistic.")
Concluded Mark Mellman: "The single most brilliant act by a campaign was to turn... a landslide defeat into a moral victory."
More to come... read more »
Democratic Unity
Freddy at Sylvia's
But Freddy's preparatory breakfast with Charlie Rangel, Virginia Fields, and Billy Thompson up at Sylvia's this morning did offer a clue as to why, quietly, many Democrats are wondering how much this line of attack actually helps.
The problems, one of which the Times gets at today, are two: the debate debate hasn't, yet, been clearly attached to any substantive attack on the Mayor. And in the absence of anything but the process, what you're really talking about is race.
Charlie Rangel, never shy of racial politics, defended them this morning, Politicker intern David Greenhouse reports:
"There's nothing wrong with racial politics as long as it's positive."
Virginia, too, saw a broader, and also purely ethnic theme in the debate debate:
"We know that the Apollo ... has become the place where political activities are very important to people of color in this city, so coming there every candidate would understand issues important to people of color in this city are going to be raised," she said. "That's to be expected, and that's where I think the arrogance comes in. So it's more than just whether it's Harlem or whether it's blacks, it is a state of mind, it is more than just a place on 125th Street, it is bigger than that, and I think [Mike] made a critical mistake."
(Freddy's response to Virginia: "I'm glad I don't have to debate against you anymore.") read more »
In any case, beyond the welcome arrival of chicken-suit guy, where does the debate-debate go from here?
UPDATE: Or perhaps The Politicker is overthinking this. Robert George's take is that the Mayor is being an idiot. And TimesSelect hostage Joyce Purnick has something to say on the subject as well, but it's unlinkable.Pace Poll Redux
Anyway, Brian picked up on another a striking number: 82% of those polled said they thought the real estate boom is bad for New York.
That's an amazing figure, reflecting something as close to absolute agreement as you find in surveys like this. It's also notable because in broad macroeconomic terms, rising real estate prices reflect the market's confidence in New York's future; the people deciding Democratic Party primaries have the exact opposite reaction.
Brian discussed the question in terms of the city's running housing crisis generally, and specifically in terms of the lack of any grand housing policy plans this election year. read more »
But it's also interesting in what it says about the core Democratic Party vote -- the very roughly 800,000 or so people who can be counted on to vote in the Mayoral primary. As much as any other single bond, Democrats are the party of tenants, representing the roughly two-thirds of New Yorkers -- though fewer voters -- who rent. And on this key measure of the city's health, their interest is the exact opposite of the truisms about the real estate market that commentators from Bloomberg on down often repeat. But while New York remains a city of renters, this doesn't seem to be a winning political stance for the Democrats.American Terrorist and Martyr, His Soul Goes Marching On
Un-Masked Man: Who Is That Kazakh, Or Don't You Know Ali G?
Sweat for Virginia
From: Victory for Virginia Location: Serge Gym 104 West 145th @ Lenox Avenue When: Thursday, May 5, 7:00pm to 9:00pm
Serge's GYM O.T. Wells, Jr. Jeanne Parnell Leslie Noah Burns
Cordially invites you to join them for a workout session in support of C. Virginia Fields, Manhattan Borough President & Candidate for Mayor of New York City.... read more »
$50 to $250 per person. Come have fun and meet Virginia. Bring your gym clothes for a free workout session. Light refreshments.Hard to Please
This seems a bit unfair -- as we recall, there may be one or two Hispanics involved in the campaign. read more »
He also has it out for Virginia and Anthony, who "seems not to know we exist."
But Giff is saved in by the middle name of one Lisa Hernandez Gioia.Eliot's Black Problem
But after we reported that Eliot was set to endorse Freddy Ferrer for mayor, and Eliot decided to make it official with a phone call to the Times, the Attorney General didn't bother giving Virginia a heads-up. And that slight seems to have crystallized a quiet disaffection with Eliot that's been building for months on the city's African-American political scene.
"Virginia was very insulted," a senior aide to Mrs. Fields told us. "He should have at least had the courtesy to pick up the phone and call her."
Spitzer's move has had black politicians grumbling for weeks, and it tops a litany of complaints. One is the number of African-Americans he has on staff at the Attorney-General's office, though Spitzer's spokesman, Darren Dopp, showed us numbers that had the percentage of black lawyers and staff up sharply in his tenure. Then there's the fact that his campaign staff is without a seasoned black operative. Another complaint is his decision -- Spitzer would say obligation -- to defend the State in its fight against the Campaign for Fiscal Equity. Another is his handling of the Black United Fund case; though not all his critics defend that non-profit's financial operations, there was a sense in Harlem that the black establishment wasn't even consulted, exacerbated when the Attorney General appointed a new board made up of people from Long Island.
The list goes on, and Spitzer's office offers a point-by-point rebuttal that's worth listening to. One advisor to Virginia, Joe Mercurio, also said she looks forward to Eliot's endorsement in the run-off or general election.
But the bottom line is that the anger at the golden-boy attorney general from this quarter is real. (Amazing how hard it is to hold together that Democratic coalition, no?) In a cold electoral calculation, it may not matter: Hispanics, not blacks, are traditionally the swing voters in New York State, and Eliot's been working harder on that front. (See Ferrer, Fernando.) We don't doubt, though, that Randy Daniels, the black Republican candidate, will make all he can of this rift, and that some of his old friends in Harlem will enjoy every minute of it.
And if/when Eliot's governor, this can't be a good thing. The chairman of the State Party, key figures in the state assembly, and the dean of the Congressional delegation, are all vital to his success. As some sage once said, he may not need them to win, but he'll need them to govern.
One elected official willing to talk on the record about this was, of course, Charles Barron. read more »
"Eliot Spitzer has major problems in the black community," he told us. "I don't think he should get the black vote based up on what he as done so far. I don't think he deserves it."Virginia or Your Lyin' Eyes?
Here's her response to the Preliminary Mayor's Management Report:
"This litany of statistics doesn't paint the full picture of city services. What I hear from New Yorkers as I travel throughout the city's various neighborhoods, doesn't add up with the Mayor's version. Additionally, I think it's highly ironic that the Mayor would say city services are improving, following a subway fire that exposed outdated equipment, lax security, and too many versions of what went wrong.
"If the Mayor wants to know how our city is really doing, he should stop and talk to average New Yorkers instead of relying simply on statistics." read more »
Well, sure. But about those statistics...Crime Blotter
When You Assume, You Get Bad News
Crime Blotter
Dining out with Moira Hodgson
"Any questions about the menu?" asked the waiter. read more »
