Nassau

Queens home sales dropped 27.2 percent from the fourth quarter of 2006 to the fourth quarter of 2007, according to a new report from brokerage Prudential Douglas Elliman and research firm Radar Logic. Sales also dropped from the third quarter 28 percent, suggesting that the largely suburban borough is mimicing much of the nation rather than its fellow boroughs to the west and south, Manhattan and Brooklyn.  read more »

Governor Eliot Spitzer has a secret plan to shrink Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver into obscurity.  read more »

A Democratic source in Nassau just told me that the local Democrats have settled on North Hempstead Town Clerk Michelle Schimel to replace Tom DiNapoli in the Assembly. -- Azi Paybarah

Norman Adler thinks that in light of the race in Nassau -- in which Eliot Spitzer engineered the vacancy of a Republican seat and then propelled a Democrat to victory -- the state Senate Democrats are basically the governor's to do with as he pleases.

"Of course they sided with him," said Adler, a consultant who works with Republicans in the state Senate and Democrats in other offices. "He's their only hope. If they're going to be taking anything home to their districts, it's going to have to come through the governor's pork rather than the senate's pork. In this case, they sided with him because he's going to be their salvation."

[skip]

"All the money came from the governor, all the staff came from the governor, the media guy came from the governor. Ultimately the guy who did the second half of the mail came from the governor. The guy was out there campaigning continually. He's the one who pulled in Hillary and Chuck.

"So the Senate minority, until they get into the majority, is almost a wholly owned subsidiary of the governor."

-- Azi Paybarah

The bloodletting has begun in the wake of the Maureen O'Connell loss in Nassau's special election earlier this week. The defeat was a result, according to the New York Log Cabin Republicans, of the Conservative Party's "agenda of division and hate."

In a letter to Conservative Party state chair Michael Long, David Verchere of Log Cabins wrote:

"On the last day of the campaign, the news cycle wasn't about Maureen O'Connell, a fair-minded fiscal conservative. It was completely overwhelmed by the Conservative Party's anti-gay attack."

[skip]

"Chairman Long, you may wish to divide and attack your way to extinction, but the Conservative Party's strategies are also killing the New York GOP by tarring fair-minded, fiscally conservative candidates as divisive and out of the mainstream."

The full letter is here.

-- Azi Paybarah

Here are a couple of visible reminders (from this morning) of the upcoming special election for the Yvette Clarke council seat.

While this race has gotten relatively little attention -- compared with, say, the $5 million special Senate election in Nassau this week -- it has, at least, prompted a number of influential figures within the party to take a rooting interest.

Clarke, who gave up the seat when she was elected to congress, is backing Dr. Mathieu Eugene; Councilman Lew Fidler, Rock Hackshaw and other notable Brooklyn operatives are backing Wellington Sharpe; the formidable Kevin Wardally, of Bill Lynch Associates, has contributed money to Jennifer James.

Eleven more days.

-- Azi Paybarah

Joe Bruno's upbeat message this morning after losing a seat in Nassau:

"We still have the Majority in the Senate and our conference will go forward, strong, united and committed to ensuring accountability, providing checks and balances and delivering results for our constituents."

His full statement is after the jump.  read more »

-- Azi Paybarah

I caught up with Republican state Senator Frank Padavan on his way into session in the capitol just a moment ago and asked him about what the Senate Republicans will do now after losing the seat in Nassau.

"We continue to do what we think is right for the electorate," he said.

When I asked him his thoughts about state GOP chair Joe Mondello, who just lost the state senate seat in his own backyards, Padavan said he wasn't involved with the race enough to comment. Then, Padavan, never one for small talk, rushed into session, which ended a few moments later.

Focus right now is on another Republican senator from Queens, Serph Maltese, who narrowly won re-election and had problems mayor Bloomberg's re-election. I called his office to ask if he would switch parties or leave the Senate before his re-election in 2008.

His spokeswoman said he'd call me back.

-- Azi Paybarah

Despite all the finger-pointing and charges of voter suppression, there were no complaints made about yesterday's special election in Nassau to the US Attorney's Office in the Eastern District, a spokesman at the office told me via email late yesterday.

There was plenty of last minute legal maneuvering on the local level, but calls for complaints to be made to the federal authorities apparently went nowhere.

-- Azi Paybarah

A Democratic source called with some early numbers in the Nassau race: 52 percent for Democrat Craig Johnson and 48 percent for Republican Maureen O'Connell, with about 30 percent of the precincts reporting in [numbers updated].

This source also said that the districts which were expected to go heavily for the Republicans haven't reported in yet, meaning this lead will tighten, and possibly vanish.

If you've got more numbers, let me know.

Update: O'Connell is down by 2,000 votes with 13 election districts to go, according to a Republican source. My Democratic souce emailed me to say, "We won by 3." No concession speeches have been made.

-- Azi Paybarah

Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton are campaigning into Nassau's 7th Senate district today, highlighting the importance of the race.

There's been talk that if Republicans lose this seat, other GOP state Senators may abandon ship, putting every statewide elected office and both houses of the state legislature into Democratic hands. (Can anyone say redistricting?)

Giuliani is coming into the race as Republican Maureen O'Connell touts her record of fighting terrorism with campaign literature that uses a doctored NYS Department of Homeland Security logo and the image of Osama Bin Laden.

Later today,the US Department of Justice will determine whether to send election monitors into the 7th District at the request of the Democrat Craig Johnson's campaign.

UPDATE: Democrat Craig Johnson's campaign requested that the DOJ monitor the race. Republican Chairman Joseph Mondello raised concerns of voter integrity.

-- Azi Paybarah

Hillary Clinton's first major fund-raiser in New York is this week.

A comptroller vote is near with Tom DiNapoli as the front-runner, reports Fred Dicker.

Candidates in Nassau's special election are slugging it out.

Jonathan Hicks looks at ethnic politics in Brooklyn's special election.

Eliot Spitzer is looking to close some prisons, which have collectively become "an economic development program."

Spitzer has a lot of enemies.

Mike Bloomberg is lobbying Albany today for more state aid.

Matthew Chayes looks at the real impact of some recent City Council resolutions.

Bernie Kerik has a new client: the president of Guyana.

Increased military spending on top of tax cuts have been "nearly painless" for the American economy, reports the Wall Street Journal. [subscription]

The Economist wonders why so many people are running for president. The New Yorker looks at Hillary, Joe Lieberman and Iraq. New York writes about RFK, Jr. -- Azi Paybarah

Here are two fliers from 1199 SEIU and CSEA on behalf of Republican Maureen O'Connell. The full pieces are here and here.

The fliers, which will be hitting mailboxes in Nassau shortly (if not already), tie O'Connell to health care issues in a way that's hard to argue with. (What's the argument against pink ribbons?).

-- Azi Paybarah

Here's a robo call that was made and sponsored by 1199 SEIU and CSEA on behalf of Republican state senate candidate Maureen O'Connell in Nassau [updated].

The caller identifies herself as "Mary Duffy," a nurse and mother of four in Mineola. It's a short, pragmatic delivery whose message can be distilled as follows: She's a mom and a nurse. Vote for her.

But there is also this interesting line:

"As a health care worker, I know how important it is that our state senators understand the need to safeguard our local hospitals and stand up for quality health care. That's why I'm supporting Maureen O'Connell for state senate."

Safeguard our local hospitals?

Sounds like a reference to Eliot Spitzer's plan to squeeze billions of dollars out of the budget from Medicaid and health care costs. I wonder when those robo calls start going out.

-- Azi Paybarah

The Times endorsed Howard Weitzman for comptroller.

Of the three recommendations, Mr. Weitzman is clearly the best fit. As Nassau's comptroller, and a partner in a top-four accounting firm before that, he has the strongest background, and he has shown in his current job that he can be steadfastly independent. Ms. Stark is also impressive, although her credentials are not as close a match. A smart, engaging lawyer who has experience managing a large agency, she sits on boards that help oversee $100 billion in pension funds. Ms. Stark would also add diversity to the top levels of state government.

Mr. Mulrow, a businessman who has run for this office before, has a great deal of knowledge about investments and experience as a manager. But his closeness to Mr. Spitzer and his connections to a bidder for the state's lucrative racetrack business make him the least suitable.

Discuss.

Two City Hall staffers have taken a leave from their jobs at the Community Assistance Unit to work on the campaign of Republican Maureen O'Connell in Nassau, according to a City Hall insider.

The staffers helping O'Connell are Fred Kreizman and Matt Gorton. (Kreizman's cell phone message, when I called, said that he'd be out of the office until February 7, the day after the election.)

Such a loan of Bloomberg personnel is not without recent precedent, especially when the beneficiary is in a position -- as Republican Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno clearly is -- to exercise discretion over funding for the city. When Bloomberg administration staffers went last year to help Senator Joe Lieberman in his hard-fought primary against Ned Lamont, for example, it may well have been something a "thank you" for past and future help with homeland security money.

As my insider source put it, "The mayor is a results-oriented guy."

But the last word here goes to mayoral spokesman Stu Loeser, who said in an email that these two staffers are acting on their own. "The Mayor doesn't send people. If personnel want time off and their supervisors okay it based on the office's workload, they get it. It's an administrative decision that has nothing to do with the Mayor's support of a candidate."

-- Azi Paybarah

Tom DiNapoli is circulating a letter to colleagues outlining reasons why he should be the next state comptroller.

In keeping with prevailing theme of political independence, DiNapoli stresses a willingness to work with Republicans in the legislature.

"While I am certainly a proud Democrat, I have never hesitated to work with my Republican colleagues in the Assembly and Senate to support legislation in the public interest. I have always believed that partisanship must never get in the way of good government. My ability to be an effective, independent comptroller - to call it as I see it - is just a logical extension of that philosophy."

DiNapoli also touts the role he played in helping Nassau emerge from its fiscal crisis after years of GOP control.

Coincidentally, that fiscal turnaround was also a central theme of the gubernatorial campaign of Tom Suozzi, who defeated DiNapoli in a race for county executive.

The rest of the letter is after the jump.  read more »

-- Azi Paybarah

"Welcome to my house."

That's how the ever-affable Senator Malcolm Smith greeted some people who arrived at Gracie Mansion last night for Mayor Bloomberg's annual party with state Senators, according to one attendee.

It was a bi-partisan affair, with guests including senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno, Manhattan senators Tom Duane, Liz Kruger, Deputy Mayor Kevin Sheekey, and others in attendance. Unlike some other parties the mayor has held at Gracie Mansion, Bloomberg posed for pictures with nearly every guest (anybody want to send me their copy?).

The timing of this annual party couldn't have been better, coming one day before a pivotal special election for Michael Balboni's seat in Nassau kicks into high gear. While Governor Spitzer, Tom Suozzi, and key Democratic operatives are all heading to Nassau to help Craig Johnson, a local legislator, its not clear how much Bloomberg will get involved to help Republicans and their candidate, Nassau County Clerk, Maureen O'Connell.

-- Azi Paybarah

Here's a look at some numbers for the people running for that state Senate seat that Republican Michael Balboni is vacating in Nassau County.

The Republicans are now backing Maureen O'Connell, who in 2005 won a countywide election for Nassau County Clerk, and who served in the Assembly since 1999, making her a candidate with proven vote-getting credentials in Nassau.

In the 2005 race, O'Connell defeated Democrat Tricia Ferrell by about 17,000 votes.

But in Balboni's district, O'Connell narrowly lost: 49.9 to 50.1, according to a Democratic source who had access to information tabulated by the State Democratic Party.

According to the source, of the 198,000 voters in the state senate district, 36,800 of them were in O'Connell's former Assembly district. Slightly more voters, 46,000, were in the county legislative district represented by Craig Johnson, the Democrat who will be running against O'Connell in the state Senate race.

I've been trying to verify these numbers with the county Republicans but haven't had any luck yet.

-- Azi Paybarah

Now that we're talking about old New York Times buildings, let's talk about the first ever! When the Times initially published in 1851, it ran its operations out of a tiny, six-story building near City Hall at 113 Nassau Street.

The 15,000-square-foot building, above, is undistinguished -- it was never landmarked -- and looks pretty shabby.

And now it might be getting knocked down. According to city records, 113 Nassau Street as well as 111 Nassau and neighboring 21 Ann Street have all been purchased by an unnamed buyer for $7.5 million, $12.5 million and $9.8 million, respectively.

Planning something bigger and pretty? Together, the three properties have more than 100,000 developable feet, according to PropertyShark.

At the least, it's worth sitting on. The building at 113 Nassau was last sold two years ago for $5 million, and has now gone for $2.5 million more.

- John Koblin

A very knowledgeable reader called in to tell me that Eliot Spitzer is expected to announce the appointment of state Senator Michael Balboni as head of ....

I'm waiting to hear back from Balboni, but my source said it's a done deal.

Appointing a Republican to such a high-profile post would obviously be a big statement by the incoming governor, who repeatedly promised set aside partisan differences during his reformist campaign. And while Balboni is no technocrat, his qualifications for the post definitely look better than, say, Golan Cipel's. He heads the senate committee on Veterans, Homeland Security and Military Affairs.

But the move is interesting, as well, from the perspective of raw politics. Appointing Balboni would open up a state senate seat that Democrats could pick up. In Nassau's 7th District, Balboni won re-election pretty easily this year, but the voter registration in the district runs Democratic by a couple thousand. One more Democratic pickup in the Senate might make Spitzer's homeland in Albany just a little more secure.

More info, anybody?

-- Azi Paybarah

Enter a new name in the Hevesi-replacement rumor mill: Tom DiNapoli, the Assemblyman in Nassau.

"I've heard that too," said DiNapoli, who said he's gotten calls from colleagues, but no one from Eliot Spitzer's entourage. DiNapoli himself wouldn't admit to being interested in the comptroller's office, but said instead that he is eyeing the job of Assembly Majority Leader, since the current majority leader is retiring.

Another Hevesi replacement name that's been floated is the comptroller of Erie County Comptroller Marc Poloncarz. He said that his name is floated for things all the time, and that no one from Spitzerland called him. He wouldn't say who -- if anyone -- actually did.

Anyone else heard any credible (or not so credible) rumors?

-- Azi Paybarah

Here's another House race that has turned out to be sneaky-competitive: Republican Rep. Peter King versus Nassau legislator Dave Mejias.

They're debating tonight on Long Island and Mejias's campaign is planning to post a video of the debate on their website tomorrow (barring any tech issues). King and Mejias already debated this morning, to air on Nov. 2 at 4 p.m. on News 12.

What's interesting about this race is that King is the chairman of the Homeland Security Committee, a posting that was a source of great strength when he first got it, but that has become an asset of more dubious local value since the Dubai-port security deal and the Republican-led cutbacks in anti-terror funding to New York.

But part of the reason New York Democrats haven't made more noise about this race may be that Mejias was an early supporter of Tom Suozzi -- not something that has ingratiated him with the Spitzer-worshiping establishment.

I asked Mejias on the phone earlier he felt that any state Democrats might have continued to hold that against him.

"Like the Democrats inner circle?" he asked. "They may have, but I can't answer for them."

-- Azi Paybarah

Al Gore discusses climate change at the New York Botanical Garden.

Tom Suozzi proposes Nassau's budget for 2007.

The state senate meets at 2:30. You can watch it live here.

Rep. Christopher Shays holds a hearing entitled, "What are the Consequences of Leaving Iraq?"

Karl Rove is the special guest at a fundraiser in Washington.

And there's a cannoli eating contest at the San Gennarro Festival.

-- Azi Paybarah

We thought it might be funny to talk to Judy Jacobs about the debate tonight. She is, as most of you know, the Nassau legislature's presiding officer and, for those of you who forgot, an early Suozzi supporter who switched a few weeks ago to Spitzer.

We couldn't see her when she answered our question about how the debate might impact the 70-point gap between the candidates, but we're pretty sure she was rolling her eyes.

"When you have 78 percent approval to ten percent, whatever he is doing, it is obviously working," she said, patiently. "It is really more Suozzi who has to hit the home run to start moving up in the polls. Spitzer - people know who he is. He should just stay the course."

Hey, we tried.

- Jason Horowitz

Nassau splits its votes evenly between Weld and Faso.

"Our party faces a critically important choice," said Joe Mondello. It is a choice that represents the of the future New York Republican party, he said.

"Regrettably the Republican dream team was not to be," he said and argued that a primary was the proper forum in which to decide on a candidate.

Faso was breathing heavy in the stands before Mondello delivered his county's vote. Afterwards his supporters chanted "coward."

-- Jason Horowitz

A Nassau Democrat tells The Politicker that the Suozzi camp is readying a petitioning operation that will rely, in part, on county workers -- particularly Board of Elections patronage employees and Democratic staff of the County legislature -- "volunteering" their vacation time in June and July to gather nominating petition signatures in upstate New York.

And if that doesn’t have you feeling the winds of reform on your back, hard to see what will.

Suozzi aide Kim Devlin responds that Suozzi supporters on the County payroll, along with others, have helped with petitioning before, and probably will again.

"We never tell anybody -- especially a county employee -- that they have to petition," she said.

Meanwhile in Nassau, County Legislator Craig Johnson endorsed Eliot today, citing "a diversity of opinion in Nassau County as to the appropriateness of County Executive Suozzi’s political activities."

Tom Suozzi's campaign made the claim today that Eliot Spitzer essentially put the Nassau police union up to suing Suozzi, an argument they base on the fact that Richard Emery and his law firm -- also the PBA's lawyers -- have ties to Spitzer.

Between the PBA, whose hostility to Suozzi is legendary, and Emery, who's an independent character, it's not clear why you have to theorize a separate conspiracy.

But before you feel too bad for the Nassau cops, don't miss this bit from today's Times story.

The average county police officer earns $110,000 a year, including overtime, compared with the $25,000 starting salary for a New York Police Department officer. Mr. Suozzi makes $109,000 a year as the county's top elected official.

If a big hole winds up getting blown in Tom Suozzi's image of himself as a government reformer, it'll come out of the way he's run Nassau. This editorial his sometime admirers at Newsday ran yesterday isn't a good sign.

Jose Lopez is very skilled at running marathons and enjoys a splendid reputation as a manager of triathalons. He would be a wonderful events manager for the Nassau County Department of Parks. Too bad County Executive Tom Suozzi has nominated Lopez to be the Parks Commissioner. In that job, he seems to be out of his league.

[snip]

Unfortunately, Suozzi thinks that letting deputies run the show is the working model for the parks department. After all, Lopez would replace Doreen Banks, who finally resigned as commissioner after two years of not actually doing the job. In fact, during her first year she was told by Suozzi to turn the department over to her subordinates.

...Unable to fill the commissioner's job after a year of searching for someone who lives in Nassau, has both management experience and the temperment to soothe a troubled department, and will be satisfied with a $125,000 annual salary, Hahn suggested the marathon organizer, coach and gym teacher. He called it a "thinking outside the box" moment.

Azi of the New York Press (and formerly, of Politicker intern fame) offers this Nassau nugget:

On NY1 last night, Democratic State Chairman Denny Farrell said he hasn't spoken to Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi in two years. So much for cell phones, right?

"I don't think it's a secret that Tom Suozzi is not the chairman's favorite person since Tom began pointing out the problems in our state government through his fixalbany.com campaign," said Suozzi campaign manager Kim Devlin, who learned of the comments when I called.

"However, Mr. Farrell must have forgotten when Tom called him earlier this year to congratulate him on his new daughter."  read more »

Ouch!

Before hanging up, Kim was heard telling an aide they have to start taping NY1 from now on. Good call.

In the months before the Presidential election, the Bush campaign argued that voters in the New York metropolitan area -- notably in New Jersey -- might break with tradition and vote Republican due to their close experience of the September 11 attacks.

A number of reporters, including this one in the Observer and Terry Golway in the Times, found some anecdotal evidence of this, but the argument was dismissed by Democrats, who called Bush's trip to New Jersey a "head-fake." Kerry won New Jersey, and we forgot about the whole thing.

Vindication is here!

National Journal's Charles Mahtesian, who edits the indispensible Almanac of American Politics, had a look at the congressional district-by-district returns in an article last week (unfortunately subscription only), and found that "Bush posted many of his greatest gains in the unlikeliest of places: the blue-state heartland that once stood in the shadow of the World Trade Center, among those who live closest to Ground Zero."

He reports that of the 17 districts that switched from Gore in 2000 to Bush in 2004, six were in New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut. And of the 53 districts with swings of 10 or more percentage points between the two elections, a quarter were in those states.

Anthony Weiner-land in Brooklyn and Queens, it turns out, showed the widest swing in the entire country.

"In 2000, Gore won in a 37-point landslide, garnering 67 percent of the vote to Bush's 30 percent. But last year, the cops, firefighters, middle-class homeowners, Caltholics, and Orthodox Jews of the polyglot 9th deserted the Democratic ticket in droves. Kerry won by just 12 points, 56 percent to 44 percent. That 25-percentage-point erosion in the Democratic margin of victory marked the district as the most volatile in the nation."

Mahtesian found a similar effect in the Jersey suburbs and on Long Island.

"Little else other than 9/11 can account for those patterns. For decades, Nassau and Suffolk counties moved in tandem with the suburbs of Chicago and Philadelphia, first voting solidly Republican and then, beginning in the 1990s, spiraling away from the GOP toward the Democratic camp. In 2004, the Chicago and Philadelphia suburbs continued their drift away from the Republican Party, but Nassau and Suffolk broke back toward Bush."  read more »

UPDATE: One of our wonkier readers asked below whether these numbers take into account the new congressional district lines. We asked Charlie Mahtesian, who emailed: "Both the 2000 and 2004 results are according to the new congressional district lines adopted in 2002."

My 15-year-old daughter got home from camp last night after scoring a 98 on her final exam.  read more »