Robert Menendez

WASHINGTON—Senator Chuck Schumer's status as Chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee became no clearer following a closed-door Democratic Caucus meeting today.

Asked about whether Schumer would be staying on in the campaign role, his potential successor, New Jersey Senator Robert Mendendez said only, "Ask Harry Reid," before hurrying away.  read more »

Remember the little kerfuffle that erupted in September when it was revealed that Tom Kean's press secretary was posting scurrilous comments about Bob Menendez on various blogs under an assumed identity? (No? Congratulations--you are healed! Go forth and blog no more!)

Apparently a few incidents of incompetent sockpuppetry are not enough to get a flack shamed out of high-level Republican politics. John McCain has hired her for his presidential campaign. (Thanks to The Plank on this one.)

-- Andrew Rice

Continuing its tradition of always picking the statewide winner, New Jersey's Bergen County sided with Robert Menendez over Tom Kean for the U.S. Senate. The result from New Jersey's most populous county:

Menendez 100,359 Kean: 88,460

-- Steve Kornacki

Democrats are now one-third of the way to claiming the Senate for the first time since 2001, with Sherrod Brown knocking off Mike DeWine in Ohio and Bob Casey, Jr. dethroning Pennsylvania'a Rick Santorum. Neither of these results are surprising -- Santorum has not led in a single public poll over the last 22 months, and national Republicans actually pulled resources out of DeWine's effort last month.

But the six-seat gain Democrats need to reclaim the majority is very much within sight right now. In New Jersey, Robert Menendez has held off Republican Tom Kean, preserving for the Democrats a seat that appeared to be in serious jeopardy last month, when news of a federal criminal probe of Menendez leaked from the U.S. Attorney's office.

All eyes are now on Virginia, Rhode Island, Missouri, Montana, Tennessee and Arizona. Win four of those, and Democrats have their majority-- assuming, of course, that they retain Maryland, where final results could take a few days.

-- Steve Kornacki

PoliticsNJ.com has declared Democrat Dennis McNerney the winner in the race for Bergen County Executive. And you should care, even if you have never heard of McNerney.

Bergen, the densely-populated swath of suburbia that begins on the other side of the George Washington Bridge and extends all the way up to the New York border, is an uncannily reliable barometer of state political trends. Only once -- when the free-spending Jon Corzine purchased a Senate seat for $63 million in 2000-- has a statewide candidate won in New Jersey without also carrying Bergen. (Corzine, who bounced back to carry Bergen in his gubernatorial bid last year, lost the county in '00 by 5,000 votes to Bob Franks.)

So, the fact that McNerney won tonight -- even though it is not at all a surprise to New Jersey political observers --bodes very well for Robert Menendez's chances in the Senate race. After all, if the Democratic candidate for county executive wins Bergen, it stands to reason the Senate candidate has as well. And if that's the case, well, history tells us Menendez is a lock. Almost.

-- Steve Kornacki

Much has been made of the Hudson County political roots of Robert Menendez, New Jersey's appointed U.S. Senator. The gritty collection of 13 densely-packed cities and towns - Jersey City, Union City, and Bayonne to name a few - is home to a mighty, efficient, and not infrequently ruthless Democratic machine over which Menendez held sway until very recently. His turf's dirty - or, if you're the less sensitive type, colorful - reputation explains why Menendez is the first Hudson machine product nominated for statewide office in decades.

But Hudson and two other machine counties - Essex (Newark and environs) and Camden - will play no small role in what looks increasingly like a Menendez victory over Republic Tom Kean Jr. tomorrow.

Just consider the numbers:

In last year's governor's race, Hudson, Essex and Camden accounted for 25 percent of all ballots cast statewide - but 75 percent of Jon Corzine's victory margin over Republican Doug Forrester. Corzine won the race by 10 points, an unexpectedly lopsided tally. Forrester blamed Bush fatigue, but actually the Essex and Hudson election day machinery were key, producing relatively high turnout in their backyards while suburban participation ebbed to an all-time low. The overall effect inflated Corzine's statewide margin.

New Jersey now is considered among the bluest states in the country. No Republican has won a Senate seat in the Garden State in 34 years and it's now been nine years since the party triumphed in any statewide race - Christine Todd Whitman's one-point victory over Jim McGreevey for governor in 1997.

But without the Big Three Democratic counties, the state might be among the most competitive in the country. Just look at the state's 2003 legislative elections. With the outcome of every state Assembly and Senate race in the Big Three counties a foregone conclusion, the machines were barely active on Election Day and Republicans won the majority of all votes cast across the state (even though gerrymandering lost them seats in both chambers).

Yes, New Jersey's independent suburban voters have dramatically soured on the national Republican Party over the last decade, a trend that surely hasn't eased this year. But even if the Kean-Menendez polls were even now, most Republicans would probably still be writing off their standard-bearers chances. In a Democratic machine state, the Republican probably needs to be at least three points ahead going into Election Day to have a prayer.

Quinnipiac throws a little bit of a wet blanket (a slightly dampened blanket?) on hopes of a suspenseful election tomorrow, releasing polls on three key races that show:

Alan Hevesi leading Chris Callaghan by 12 points; Bob Menendez leading Tom Kean, Jr. by 5; and Joe Lieberman leading Ned Lamont by 12.

-- Azi Paybarah

UNION CITY, N.J.—In his 30-plus years as a player in New Jersey politics, Senator Robert Menendez  read more »

UNION CITY, N.J.—In his 30-plus years as a player in New Jersey politics, Senator Robert Menen  read more »

Tom Suozzi is backing Alan Hevesi for re-election.

John McCain endorsed Chris Callaghan.

Jonathan Miller, who wrote a story in this week's Observer about the relationships between Senator Bob Menendez and hard-line anti-Castro activists, has more here on a related group of hard-liners recently called before a grand jury in Newark. The group includes one prominent Menendez fund-raiser and an employee of another Menendez supporter who died in 2000.

Bob Corker, Menendez and Sheldon Whitehouse all have double-digit leads in their Senate races.

Aides to Tom Reynolds got tips on how to manage the Mark Foley fall out two days before the story became public, indicating, again, that the congressman's office was aware of the issue.

The state Senate Democrats are paying for only one ad this year, and it's for Andrea Stewart-Cousins.

Rudy Giuliani leads John McCain in a recent Florida poll, but trails him in another poll out in Michigan.

Greg Sargent critiques the Times' coverage of John Kerry's Iraq comment.

Another site wonders whose job sucks more: press flack for George Allen or John Kerry.

Jerry Skurnik writes about a judicial race in which "for reasons that are both too complicated and murky, there is no Democratic candidate for the other slot."

And pictured above is Borat.  read more »

-- Azi Paybarah

So what impact does yesterday's decision by the New Jersey Supreme Court that have on the Senate race?

The immediate analysis, from both camps, is - not much. Though the court's ruling is in many ways monumental, it leaves the question of marriage to the state legislature. That takes pressure off the two candidates, who only have to worry about the next two weeks. Plus, everyone pretty much knows where the two candidates stand on gay rights.

Tom Kean's spokeswoman, Jill Hazelbacker, reminded that "Tom unequivocally believes marriage is between a man and a woman. Tom believes it should remain that way. He supports preserving the traditional definition of marriage. And that's the main difference between him and Bob Menendez."

Well, sort of. While Bob Menendez supports civil unions for same sex couples, he has also said that marriage should be reserved for unions between men and women.

So, in the meantime, the race in New Jersey rolls on with Kean taking a break for a few minutes today from his attacks against Menendez ("Raising YOUR Taxes to Line the Pockets of HIS Special Interests) to release a sort-of-positive television ad.

--Jason Horowitz

Joe Lieberman's decision to run as an Independent in the Connecticut Senate race has forced Democrats across the country to decide whether to endorse the Democratic nominee or Democratic incumbent.

But Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey found a simpler solution last night, according to this fun story in the Times. Endorse both of them.

"In a written question from an audience member, Mr. Menendez was asked why he supported Mr. Lamont. Mr. Menendez said that his support of Mr. Lamont was a "mischaracterization," adding that he supported Mr. Lieberman's run as an independent candidate. "I wish him well and hope he returns," he said.

The Senator's comments, published on the Empire Zone, were then posted on Joe Lieberman's blog . Menendez' press secretary then called the Times reporter, John Holl, and asked that the senator's comments to be changed, according to the article.

So all this begs the question, what happened between Menendez' comments and Miller's call? One immediately imagines Chuck Schumer getting on the horn and chewing Menendez out. The DSCC isn't helping Menendez out in New Jersey just so he can help the competition in Connecticut, after all. The DSCC had no comment. (Lieberman and Lamont blogs have been bickering about the ephemeral endorsement all day.)

Miller said the whole thing was just a big misunderstanding and that really, it was all Kean's fault.

"He kind of comes up with this silly stunt, but it's more a sign of a sinking campaign than anything else," Miller told me earlier.

Whatever happened, Kean is happy. His campaign just sent out the Times article, in full, as a press release.

--Jason Horowitz

Here is something you don't see often: a Democratic operative criticizing a Democratic U.S. Senantor's ethics.

A reader passed on this email from an Chris Cullen, who, according to this article, works with the New York State Senate Democrats. The email was a response to an invitation he got to "a low-dollar young professional event for Senator Menendez, NJ" in Manhattan next week.

From: "Christopher P. Cullen"

Subject: Re: NJ Senate race - Last low-dollar event in NYC!

Date: Mon, 9 Oct 2006 20:25:22 -0400

To: Eleni Delimpaltadaki

Mendez has ethical issues.

I emailed Cullen for a comment. Here's what he wrote back:

it was just a bad joke in response to getting yet another unsolicited email for something I never signed up for...I should have simply replied with "Please remove me from this list," but instead wrote something that I thought would be sure to get me removed from the list.

Mission accomplished.

UPDATE: Cullen emailed to remind me that he has sent out an apology for the ethics joke.

-- Azi Paybarah

This kind of makes the Pirro wire-tapping stuff look quaint.

It's a new attack ad from Senate candidate Tom Kean Jr., which will start playing in the New York media market tomorrow and is viewable here. It features a taped conversation that has been much discussed in the Jersey press in which an associate of Bob Menendez -- the Democratic incumbent whose name has recently come up in connection with a federal criminal investigation -- pressures a doctor to hire an Menendez ally or run the risk of losing government contracts.

Here's the script.

Announcer: "Listen carefully to Bob Menendez's top lieutenant pressuring a doctor in a Menendez kick-back scheme. 'The only reason I stuck my nose in this Ruiz thing is because Menendez asked me to do it...to do it. There's gotta be a condition to it...condition to it. It makes sense for you because it gives you protection...protection. Menendez asked me to do it.'

--Jason Horowitz

If Chuck Schumer has a dartboard, chances are there’s a picture of Jon Corzine fastened to its  read more »

If Chuck Schumer has a dartboard, chances are there’s a picture of Jon Corzine fastened to its bul  read more »

When the Terror War was over the horizon, Washington was possessed by the story of the President hav  read more »

On Saturday, a rally protesting illegal immigration will be held outside of the Mexican Consulate.

John Faso attends the Columbus Citizens Foundation Gala Dinner at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel.

The Astoria Frank Kenna Republican Club and the NY Young Republican Club will hold their final voter registration drive of the 2006 election season.

On Sunday, Bob Menendez and Tom Kean, Jr. debate on CBS.

Monday is Columbus Day!

Vito Fossella and Steve Harrison spend the holiday debating. Twice. —Nicole Brydson

And now for a competitive race...

The most recent poll numbers today from New Jersey seem to show a growing lead for Republican Senate candidate Tom Kean, Jr. over incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez: 44 to 38. Menendez's unfavorable numbers have increased, unsurprisingly, with the news that he's under federal investigation for making a profit off of a nonprofit.

It's debatable whether this finally represents the bottom falling out of the Menendez campaign. There's still plenty of time to go, and New Jersey's Democrats have been on a roll in recent statewide elections, to put it mildly.

But either way, if the polls keep showing numbers like this, how long do we think it will be until New Jersey Democrats start talking -- openly -- about replacing their candidate, like they did in 2002?

-- Azi Paybarah

New Jersey’s Democratic elite has developed a well-worn reputation for cockiness.  read more »

New Jersey’s Democratic elite has developed a well-worn reputation for cockiness.    read more »

A powerful clue that U.S.  read more »

And just for a moment, the national Democrats attempt to focus on an exciting Senate race in the Northeast that has nothing to do with Joe Lieberman...

Senator Robert Menendez just talked with reporters on a conference call about the not-so-secret strategy of making social security a national issue, contrasting his position on the president's proposed changes his challenger's and predicting that voters are "going to be riveted to this as they begin to get the wake-up call."

A spokesman for the Campaign for America's Future, which organized the call, stated the premise this way in an email: "We're putting the power back into the third rail."

-- Jason Horowitz

Bill Weld quits the race for governor, reports the Times.

Robert Menendez will face Thomas Kean, Jr. in the New Jersey election for U.S. Senate.

The Post reports KT McFarland will soon be urged out of the Republican primary race for Senate.

Newsday teams up with NY1 on a poll showing Eliot Spitzer ahead by 50 points. —Nicole Brydson

The Times reports on the Republican choice for governor: John Faso.

Robert Menendez opens his campaign for U.S. Senate in New Jersey.

The Post reports that Hillary Clinton and Peter King have sent the first of many New York postcards to Michael Chertoff.

The Daily News reports that a Quinnipiac poll rates President Bush the worst since WWII.

—Nicole Brydson

Come January, Sen. Frank Lautenberg won't be New Jersey's junior senator anymore: he'll be back in the senior saddle. Perhaps anticipating his ascension, he jumped the gun a bit yesterday.

Approached by WCBS-TV NJ reporter Christine Sloan, Lautenberg agreed to go on camera and discuss Corzine's pick for Senate. Sloan asked: "Have you talked to Jon Corzine about his choice?"

"Well, I talked to Jon. It was his decision but it had my affirmation, absolutely," he replied.

"And that choice?" she asked.

"Bob Menendez," Lautenberg said.

While Lautenberg may have been stating the obvious, he hadn't been cleared to do so. No one from the Corzine or Menendez camps has confirmed the governor-elect's decision yet. The news leaked out on Wednesday, but Corzine won't divulge his big secret until this afternoon, at 2 p.m. in Jersey City.

Oops.

And... a newly-annointed Menendez will appear on "Sunday Edition with Marcia Kramer" (WCBS-TV, channel 2, 11 a.m.).  read more »

(Lautenberg illustration borrowed from Slate, with love.)

With Bob Menendez slated for promotion to Corzine's Senate seat, members of the New York delegation are scrambling to press their campaign to get one of their own, Joe Crowley, into leadership. He's running for vice-chair. (Slightly corrected.)  read more »