Tom Kean, Jr.

The biggest Republican names are begging off of an unexpected—and very winnable for the G.O.P.—Congressional race in New Jersey. Republican Michael Ferguson, a 37-year-old 4th termer, announced yesterday that he won't seek re-election to his 7th District seat next year, and already former Congressman Bob Franks (who held the seat from 1992-2000), state Senator Tom Kean, Jr. (who ran for the seat against Ferguson in 2000 and for the U.S. Senate last year) and Assembly Minority Whip Jon Bramnick, have all declined to run.

Why?

More after the jump.  read more »

As is its custom, Quinnipiac University released the final poll of the New Jersey campaign season yesterday, pegging Robert Menendez's lead over Tom Kean Jr. at five points, 48 to 43 percent. This corresponds roughly to the findings of perhaps a dozen other recent polls, all of which gave the appointed Democrat leads - as high as ten points.

And so it appears that the New Jersey GOP will extends its losing streak in U.S. Senate races to 11. Which raises the question of what's next for Kean, a 38-year-old political legacy whose charmed ascension in politics now faces an abrupt detour.

The easiest answer is that he'll be back. He's young, after all, possesses a beloved New Jersey surname, and had the misfortune of running in the most toxic year imaginable for a Republican. And, anyway, it's an unofficial Garden State tradition that losing statewide candidates get second chances (Jim McGreevey, Christine Todd Whitman, and Jim Florio are a few members of this club).

But there's a compelling case that campaign '06 will mark Junior's last hurrah. For one thing, this race has confirmed that there are deep and incorrigible flaws in his public style. Kean is exceptionally slow on his feet, and is incapable of convincingly selling the talking points his handlers force-feed him . And he has failed miserably to mask any of these shortcomings with good humor, charm, or even the occasional chortle-worthy quip. As a candidate for office, he is badly miscast. It is hard to imagine that he has enjoyed running for statewide office - why would he go through this again?  read more »

Quinnipiac throws a little bit of a wet blanket (a slightly dampened blanket?) on hopes of a suspenseful election tomorrow, releasing polls on three key races that show:

Alan Hevesi leading Chris Callaghan by 12 points; Bob Menendez leading Tom Kean, Jr. by 5; and Joe Lieberman leading Ned Lamont by 12.

-- Azi Paybarah

NJ Gov. Jon Corzine said he still prefers civil unions instead of gay marriage.

The Wall Street Journal debates the issue here and here.

Tom Kean, Jr 's family is giving him a boost, if not an actual lead, in the polls over Bob Menendez.

Eliot Spitzer withdrew his endorsement of Alan Hevesi, but not before Hevesi did some impressive fund-raising.

Hevesi got endorsed by the Daily News. The Times goes with Christopher Callaghan. [added]

The "accidental labor leader" who took over after Brian McLaughlin was indicted gets profiled.

So does the nicer Andrew Cuomo.

Newsday has more on our post on Peter King's son, who works as a lobbyist.

After donating money to fund research at Cornell, Mike Bloomberg said some people were "bastardizing" science.

Hillary Clinton celebrated her birthday in style.

And John McCain is apparently beefing up his 2008 operation more than Rudy Giuliani.

-- Azi Paybarah

With each passing day, the New Jersey Senate race between United States Senator Robert Menendez and  read more »

This kind of makes the Pirro wire-tapping stuff look quaint.

It's a new attack ad from Senate candidate Tom Kean Jr., which will start playing in the New York media market tomorrow and is viewable here. It features a taped conversation that has been much discussed in the Jersey press in which an associate of Bob Menendez -- the Democratic incumbent whose name has recently come up in connection with a federal criminal investigation -- pressures a doctor to hire an Menendez ally or run the risk of losing government contracts.

Here's the script.

Announcer: "Listen carefully to Bob Menendez's top lieutenant pressuring a doctor in a Menendez kick-back scheme. 'The only reason I stuck my nose in this Ruiz thing is because Menendez asked me to do it...to do it. There's gotta be a condition to it...condition to it. It makes sense for you because it gives you protection...protection. Menendez asked me to do it.'

--Jason Horowitz

When the Terror War was over the horizon, Washington was possessed by the story of the President hav  read more »

And now for a competitive race...

The most recent poll numbers today from New Jersey seem to show a growing lead for Republican Senate candidate Tom Kean, Jr. over incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez: 44 to 38. Menendez's unfavorable numbers have increased, unsurprisingly, with the news that he's under federal investigation for making a profit off of a nonprofit.

It's debatable whether this finally represents the bottom falling out of the Menendez campaign. There's still plenty of time to go, and New Jersey's Democrats have been on a roll in recent statewide elections, to put it mildly.

But either way, if the polls keep showing numbers like this, how long do we think it will be until New Jersey Democrats start talking -- openly -- about replacing their candidate, like they did in 2002?

-- Azi Paybarah

Bill Weld quits the race for governor, reports the Times.

Robert Menendez will face Thomas Kean, Jr. in the New Jersey election for U.S. Senate.

The Post reports KT McFarland will soon be urged out of the Republican primary race for Senate.

Newsday teams up with NY1 on a poll showing Eliot Spitzer ahead by 50 points. —Nicole Brydson

The Daily News reports that David Paterson claims no ties to League of Education Voter ads attacking Republicans in vulnerable senate districts.

The Post reports on the candidates vying to replace Sherwood Boehlert, and Mike Bloomberg’s new ally, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.

The Times has a story on Dick Cheney and Tom Kean, Jr. missing each other at last night’s fundraiser.

And the Sun suggests that Larry Silverstein is looking past the Pataki administration in hiring Roberto Ramirez.

—Nicole Brydson