George W. Bush

'Where's Ed Levi now that we need him?'  read more »

Word of Alberto Gonzales’ surprise resignation broke at about 8:30 this morning and within minutes there was a clear front-runner to succeed him: Michael Chertoff, who now runs the Homeland Security Department. (Chertoff’s name actually emerged before the embattled Gonzales stepped aside.)

A Justice Department press conference has been scheduled for 10:30 Monday morning, presumably to formally announce the Attorney General’s resignation. President Bush, vacationing in Texas, is slated to make a statement at 11:30. In theory, he could also use that appearance to announce his new A.G. nominee, but given Bush’s affinity for Gonzales and his reluctance – the very end it seems – to cut him loose, it’s more likely Bush will use the occasion simply to heap praise on his longtime friend.

On the surface, Chertoff could be a problematic pick, since his D.H.S. tenure has been marked by prickly relations with Congressional Democrats – particularly over his department’s response to Hurricane Katrina and his nebulous “gut feeling” comment this summer about a supposedly looming terrorist attack.

Tellingly, however, Chuck Schumer – the Democrats’ de facto attack dog on the Senate Judiciary Committee, which will hold confirmation hearings for the new A.G. nominee – just appeared on CNN and pointedly drew a distinction between Chertoff’s role and D.H.S. and his previous work as a United States Attorney and federal judge. That strongly suggests that Democrats may feel that, with Gonzales’ long-sought resignation, they now have their pound of flesh and thus won’t make a successor’s confirmation unduly torturous – unless Bush pushes the envelope with his pick.

On the off chance that Chertoff is not chosen, there are a few other names in the air. One is Ted Olson, who was Bush’s first Solicitor General. But Olson, who is beloved by the right for his legal work on behalf of the G.O.P. during the 2000 Florida recount, might touch some raw nerves among Senate Democrats. John Danforth, the former Missouri Senator who lost out to Dick Cheney for the second spot on the G.O.P. ticket in 2000, would be a slam-dunk for Senate confirmation, given his moderate reputation and the high regard his former colleagues have for him. And there’s also Orrin Hatch, the 73-year-old Utah Senator who stood alone among Senate Republicans in loudly defending Gonzales these past few months. Some believed Hatch, who long dreamed of a Supreme Court appointment, was angling to curry favor with the White House so that he might be tapped for a career-capping stint as A.G. if and when Gonzales stepped aside.

But if the White House was already leaning to Chertoff, Schumer’s comments a few minutes ago only made the D.H.S. secretary’s nomination that much more likely. The biggest down-side for Chertoff may be the short tenure: By the time he’s confirmed, he’d only get about a year on the job before the next President cleans house.

**UPDATE (10:35 AM): Gonzales used his 10:30 press conference to announce his resignation, effective September 17. True to form, his brief remarks didn't shed any light on the reasons for his departure, nor did he address any of the controversies that have enveloped him this year. He ignored questions from reporters.

**UPDATE II (11:53 AM): Bush just stepped off of Marine I in Crawford, Texas and made some equally brief remarks. He announced that Solicitor General Paul Clement will serve as the interim Attorney General after Gonzales' 9/17 departure and until a nominee is confirmed. He also praised Gonzales as "a man of integrity, decency and principle" and bemoaned that Gonzales' "good name was dragged through the mud for political reasons." Shortly after Bush's remarks, CNN reported that some administration sources are now waving reporters off of Michael Chertoff as Gonzales' likely successor, given the potential for an ugly, Katrina-fueled nomination fight.

The New York Times is reporting that the U.S. Attorney General Alberto Gonzales will announce his resignation later this morning:  read more »

Some interesting Iraq developments this afternoon, within minutes of each other:

First, the latest National Intelligence Estimate – the first exclusively on Iraq since January – was released, and its title sums up its findings nicely – “Prospects for Iraq’s Stability: Some Security Progress but Political Reconciliation Elusive.”

One month before Congress is supposed to receive the ballyhooed Petraeus/White House troop surge progress report, the N.I.E. seems to undercut the central premise of the escalation: that added military presence would provide the security needed for Iraq’s factions to forge a political consensus.

The second development, not coincidentally, came minutes after the N.I.E.’s release, when Republican Senator John Warner called a press conference to announce that he would ask President Bush to institute on September 15 “the first step in a withdrawal of our forces.”

This would seem to be a major development – a moderate, respected Republican legislator breaking with the White House as the critical September progress report nears. After all, the talk all summer – until the recent raft of “the surge is working” stories – was that key Republicans like Warner, who have deferred to Bush on Iraq despite their own reservations, would finally defect in September.

But is Warner’s move a defection? He is notoriously hard to read, not to mention reverent of presidential authority in matters of war. He said he would counsel Bush to withdraw about 5,000 troops by Christmas – but this may not be far from what the White House was planning anyway.

The key question remains: Is Warner prepared to back legislation that would compel the President to act? So far, withdrawal timetable legislation has failed, thanks to presidential filibuster threats, presidential vetoes, and the lack of a 2/3 majority to over-ride such vetoes. The White House has made clear that it won’t be budged – and, in fact, is counting on ads like this to keep wavering Republicans in line come the middle of September. To force the President’s hand, congressional Democrats need Republican defections – and more than just a few of them.

So what was Warner really saying? If Bush resists his suggestion – and the initial White House response suggests he will – will Warner be joined by other Republicans in delivering the same message? At what point will he call for timetable legislation – or is that something he’ll never do? And, more broadly, will the N.I.E. spur other previously hesitant Republicans to go farther than he did today in calling for an end to the war?

On Monday morning, Karl Rove stood next to President George W. Bush on the South Lawn of the White House and announced that he would be resigning from the administration at the end of the month. In front of the assembled D.C. press corp, he read a statement, and the President spoke. There was no formal opportunity for questions.

Towards the end of the appearance, as the President and his favorite pol were about to head in the direction of an awaiting helicopter, Bill Plante, CBS White House correspondent, broke the embargo.

“If he’s so smart,” said Mr. Plante, “how come you lost Congress?”  read more »