Anthoy Weiner
Anthony Weiner and the Carrion Effect
A reader pointed out that Adolfo Carrion’s absence from the mayor's race alters the landscape for Anthony Weiner's candidacy.
In the Democratic primary, a candidate must get 40 percent of the vote to win the nomination and prevent a run-off. Without Carrion in the race, it’s more likely that Bill Thompson, the only black candidate, will earn at least that number.
Assuming that if Carrion had run, Thompson and Carrion would have split support from the black and Latino communities, Weiner then would have been in a run-off with one of them, and earned a second chance at capturing the nomination.
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