Kathleen Sebelius

For most of the summer, Biden contracts were trading at around 10 on the Intrade political market, while Evan Bayh contracts traded much higher – peaking at 40 about 10 days ago. But look at what’s happened in just the last day, as the media has begun portraying Biden as the most likely selection.

Other notable values on the Democratic V.P. market: Tim Kaine is now trading at 15.4, which is actually up slightly from yesterday, and Kathleen Sebelius is at 14.8 – almost a five-point jump for her from yesterday. Hillary Clinton is at 9.3, unchanged from yesterday. But maybe we shouldn’t read too much into this: Wesley Clark is at an absurdly overvalued 13.8.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney is top at 31.1, followed closely by Tim Pawlnety at 29.9.

If, as I have argued relentlessly that he should, Barack Obama decides that an established reputation for national security and foreign policy expertise is a prerequisite for any potential running-mate, the question then becomes: Who passes the test?

Tim Kaine, eight years removed from a then-weak mayoralty and just 32 months removed from a lieutenant governor’s office, clearly doesn’t. (Maybe this is why, besides today’s two-weeks-too-late New York Times profile, the Kaine chatter has mostly vanished, especially after Russian tanks rolled into Georgia.) Neither does Kathleen Sebelius, who’s also seen as one of Obama’s personal favorites. If Obama were now leading John McCain by ten points, it’d probably be fair to assume he’d pick one of these governors.  read more »

Conventional wisdom can be and often is wrong, especially when it comes to running-mate speculation.

Maybe you can remember back to 1992, when just about every wise man and woman opined on the supposed importance of Bill Clinton, then a 45-year-old Southern governor, balancing his ticket with a gray-haired Northerner. Clinton, of course, ignored them and picked an even more youthful Tennessean named Al Gore, forming a visually powerful partnership that netted 370 electoral votes and made an utter mockery of conventional wisdom.

But there are times when, just like the proverbial broken clock, conventional wisdom actually gets it right. Case in point: the widely repeated view that Barack Obama needs to compensate for his perceived national security and foreign policy inexperience by selecting a running mate with reassuringly impeccable credentials in those areas.  read more »